Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: A Critical Look at the Stylized Facts

To address this question, this paper identifies stabilization episodes using criteria that differ from those in previous empirical studies of exchange-rate-based stabilizations. We find that, while some differences can be detected between exchange-rate-based stabilizations and stabilizations where the exchange rate is not the anchor, the behavior of important variables does not appear to differ - especially output growth, which is good in both cases. There is also no evidence that fiscal discipline is enhanced by adopting an exchange rate anchor, or that there are any systematic differences in the success records of stabilizations that use the exchange rate as a nominal anchor and those that do not. Copyright 2001, International Monetary Fund

Unions against governments: explaining general strikes in Western Europe, 1980-2006

Across Western Europe, unions have increasingly engaged in staging general strikes against governments since 1980. This increase in general strikes is puzzling as it has occurred at the same time as economic strikes have been on the decline. We posit that theories developed to explain economic strikes hold little explanatory power in accounting for variation in general strikes across countries and over time. Instead, we develop a framework based on political variables; in particular, whether governments have included or excluded unions in framing policy reforms; the party position of the government; and the type of government. Our empirical analysis, based on a conditional fixed-effects logit estimation of 84 general strikes between 1980 and 2006, shows that union exclusion from the process of reforming policies, government strength, and the party position of the government can provide an initial explanation for the occurrence of general strikes

How Volatile and Unpredictable are Aid Flows, and What are the Policy Implications?

External aid, Volatility, Predictability, IMF-supported programs

Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment

This article examines empirical evidence on the volatility and uncertainty of aid flows and their main policy implications. Aid is found to be more volatile than fiscal revenues--particularly in highly aid-dependent countries--and shortfalls in aid and domestic revenue tend to coincide. The article also finds that uncertainty about aid disbursements is large and that the information content of commitments made by donors is either very small or statistically insignificant. Specific policies and broader international efforts to cope with these features of aid are briefly discussed. Copyright 2003, International Monetary Fund

A Variable PV Broad Absorption Line and Quasar Outflow Energetics

Broad absorption lines (BALs) in quasar spectra identify high velocity outflows that might exist in all quasars and could play a major role in feedback to galaxy evolution. The viability of BAL outflows as a feedback mechanism depends on their kinetic energies, as derived from the outflow velocities, column densities, and distances from the central quasar. We estimate these quantities for the quasar, Q1413+1143 (redshift $z_e = 2.56$), aided by the first detection of PV $\lambda\lambda$1118,1128 BAL variability in a quasar. In particular, PV absorption at velocities where the CIV trough does not reach zero intensity implies that the CIV BAL is saturated and the absorber only partially covers the background continuum source (with characteristic size <0.01 pc). With the assumption of solar abundances, we estimate that the total column density in the BAL outflow is log N_H > 22.3 (cm^-2). Variability in the PV and saturated CIV BALs strongly disfavors changes in the ionization as the cause of the BAL variability, but supports models with high-column density BAL clouds moving across our lines of sight. The observed variability time of 1.6 yr in the quasar rest frame indicates crossing speeds >750 km/s and a radial distance from the central black hole of <3.5 pc, if the crossing speeds are Keplerian. The total outflow mass is ~4100 M_solar, the kinetic energy ~4x10^54 erg, and the ratio of the outflow kinetic energy luminosity to the quasar bolometric luminosity is ~0.02 (at the minimum column density and maximum distance), which might be sufficient for important feedback to the quasar's host galaxy.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Deformation modes and geometries in the EPICA-DML ice core, Antarctica

Combination of physical-properties methods (crystal-orientation-fabrics, grain-elongation-data, line-scan stratigraphy-documentation) reveal evidences for five deformation geometry regimes:1. Random c-axes distributions and crystal elongation directions (~2020 m depth). Here bed-parallel simple shear deforms the ice causing folding and inclination of stratigraphic layers.5. A last change of geometries is observed at ~2370 m depth, with a locally very restricted (~10 m) backslide to girdle fabric, isoclinal z-folding and borehole closure. Below that an inclined single maximum fabric reoccurs.Simple shear can easily produce the observed small-scale folding of layers which however may belong to disturbances on a larger scale with possible overturning and thus age reversal of layers. Below ~2020 m the EDML climate record has to be interpreted with great care

Neglecting the porosity of hot-star winds can lead to underestimating mass-loss rates

Context: The mass-loss rate is a key parameter of massive stars. Adequate stellar atmosphere models are required for spectral analyses and mass-loss determinations. Present models can only account for the inhomogeneity of stellar winds in the approximation of small-scale structures that are optically thin. This treatment of ``microclumping'' has led to reducing empirical mass-loss rates by factors of two and more. Aims: Stellar wind clumps can be optically thick in spectral lines. We investigate how this ``macroclumping'' impacts on empirical mass-loss rates. Methods: The Potsdam Wolf-Rayet (PoWR) model atmosphere code is generalized in the ``formal integral'' to account for clumps that are not necessarily optically thin. Results: Optically thick clumps reduce the effective opacity. This has a pronounced effect on the emergent spectrum. Our modeling for the O-type supergiant zeta Puppis reveals that the optically thin H-alpha line is not affected by wind porosity, but that the PV resonance doublet becomes significantly weaker when macroclumping is taken into account. The reported discrepancies between resonance-line and recombination-line diagnostics can be resolved entirely with the macroclumping modeling without downward revision of the mass-loss rate. Conclusions: Mass-loss rates inferred from optically thin emission, such as the H-alpha line in O stars, are not influenced by macroclumping. The strength of optically thick lines, however, is reduced because of the porosity effects. Therefore, neglecting the porosity in stellar wind modeling can lead to underestimating empirical mass-loss rates.Comment: A&A (in press), see full abstract in the tex

High resolution X-ray spectroscopy of bright O type stars

Archival X-ray spectra of the four prominent single, non-magnetic O stars Zeta Pup, Zeta Ori, Ksi Per and Zeta Oph, obtained in high resolution with Chandra HETGS/MEG have been studied. The resolved X-ray emission line profiles provide information about the shocked, hot gas which emits the X-radiation, and about the bulk of comparably cool stellar wind material which partly absorbs this radiation. In this paper, we synthesize X-ray line profiles with a model of a clumpy stellar wind. We find that the geometrical shape of the wind inhomogeneities is important: better agreement with the observations can be achieved with radially compressed clumps than with spherical clumps. The parameters of the model, i.e. chemical abundances, stellar radius, mass-loss rate and terminal wind velocity, are taken from existing analyses of UV and optical spectra of the programme stars. On this basis, we also calculate the continuum-absorption coefficient of the cool-wind material, using the Potsdam Wolf-Rayet (PoWR) model atmosphere code. The radial location of X-ray emitting gas is restricted from analysing the fir line ratios of helium-like ions. The only remaining free parameter of our model is the typical distance between the clumps; here, we assume that at any point in the wind there is one clump passing by per one dynamical time-scale of the wind. The total emission in a model line is scaled to the observation. There is a good agreement between synthetic and observed line profiles. We conclude that the X-ray emission line profiles in O stars can be explained by hot plasma embedded in a cool wind which is highly clumped in the form of radially compressed shell fragments.Comment: a typo corrected, 14 pages, MNRAS, in pres

Wind-Interaction Models for the Early Afterglows of Gamma-Ray Bursts: The Case of GRB 021004

Wind-interaction models for gamma-ray burst afterglows predict that the optical emission from the reverse shock drops below that from the forward shock within 100s of seconds of the burst. The typical frequency $\nu_m$ of the synchrotron emission from the forward shock passes through the optical band typically on a timescale of minutes to hours. Before the passage of $\nu_m$, the optical flux evolves as $t^{-1/4}$ and after the passage, the decay steepens to $t^{-(3p-2)/4}$, where $p$ is the exponent for the assumed power-law energy distribution of nonthermal electrons and is typically $\sim 2$. The steepening in the slope of temporal decay should be readily identifiable in the early afterglow light curves. We propose that such a steepening was observed in the R-band light curve of GRB 021004 around day 0.1. Available data at several radio frequencies are consistent with this interpretation, as are the X-ray observations around day~1. The early evolution of GRB 021004 contrasts with that of GRB 990123, which can be described by emission from interaction with a constant density medium.Comment: 16 pages, 1 figure, submitted to ApJ