Machine learning risk prediction of mortality for patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2: the COVIDSurg mortality score

To support the global restart of elective surgery, data from an international prospective cohort study of 8492 patients (69 countries) was analysed using artificial intelligence (machine learning techniques) to develop a predictive score for mortality in surgical patients with SARS-CoV-2. We found that patient rather than operation factors were the best predictors and used these to create the COVIDsurg Mortality Score (https://covidsurgrisk.app). Our data demonstrates that it is safe to restart a wide range of surgical services for selected patients.</p

Predicting pancreatic cancer in the UK Biobank cohort using polygenic risk scores and diabetes mellitus

Background &amp; aims: diabetes mellitus (DM) is known to be associated with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), particularly new-onset DM (NODM). Others have developed polygenic risk scores (PRS) associated with PDAC risk. We aimed to compare the performance of these PRS in an independent cohort to determine if they can discriminate between NODM and long-standing DM patients with PDAC. Methods: cases (1042) and matched cancer-free controls (10,420) were drawn from the UK Biobank. Five PRS models were calculated using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from previous studies (Nakatochi, Galeotti, Molina, Jia, and Rashkin) and a combination of these. Regression models were used to assess the association between PDAC and PRS adjusted for ancestry, smoking, DM, waist circumference, and family history of digestive cancer. Receiver operator characteristic curves and area under the curve metrics (AUC) were used to assess the performance of each PRS for classifying PDAC risk. Results: the combined PRS model achieved the highest AUC (0.605), and significantly improved a clinical risk model in this cohort (AUC = 0.83; P = .0002). Individuals within the fifth quintile have a 2.74-fold increased risk of developing PDAC vs those in the first quintile (P &lt; .001), and have a 3.05-fold increased risk of developing PDAC if they have DM vs those without DM (P &lt; .001). The positive predictive value was 11.9% in participants without DM, 23.9% with long-standing DM, and 86.7% with NODM. Conclusions: the PDAC-related common genetic variants are more strongly associated with DM. This PRS has the potential for targeting individuals with NODM for PDAC secondary screening measures.</p

Utilising pancreatic exocrine insufficiency in the detection of resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is usually diagnosed late, leading to a high mortality rate. Early detection facilitates better treatment options. The aim of this UK-based case–control study was to determine whether two validated tests for pancreatic exocrine insufficiency (PEI), namely, the 13C-mixed triglyceride breath test (13C-MTGBT) and a faecal elastase (FE-1) test, can discriminate between patients with resectable PDAC versus healthy volunteers (HVs) along with a comparison group with chronic pancreatitis (CP). Discrimination between disease states and HVs was tested with receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. In total, 59 participants (23 PDAC (16 men), 24 HVs (13 men) and 12 CP (10 men)) were recruited, with a similar age in each population, and a combined median (IQR) age of 66 (57–71). The areas under the ROC curve for discriminating between PDAC and HVs were 0.83 (95% CI: 0.70–0.96) for the 13C-MTGBT, and 0.85 (95% CI: 0.75–0.95) for the FE-1 test. These were similar to CP vs. HV. In conclusion, PEI occurs in resectable PDAC to a similar extent as in CP; further large-scale, prospective studies using these tests in the primary care setting on high-risk groups are warranted

The effect of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs on severity of acute pancreatitis and pancreatic necrosis

Introduction Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common emergency presentation and can be disabling. There is significant morbidity and mortality associated with AP, and it places a considerable burden on the healthcare system. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) have been shown to have a protective effect in some elective contexts. This retrospective study aimed to evaluate the effect of NSAIDs on the course of AP and the severity of the disease. Methods A retrospective analysis was carried out of 324 patients admitted as an emergency with a diagnosis of AP to two UK hospitals. Patients were divided into two groups: those already taking NSAIDs for other co-morbidities and those not taking NSAIDs. Variables compared included: admission to a high dependency or intensive care unit; pancreatic necrosis; pseudocyst development; need for surgery; serum inflammatory markers; modified early warning scores on days 1, 3 and 5; length of stay; and mortality. Results Patients not taking NSAIDs were more likely to have a C-reactive protein level of ≥150mg/l (p=0.007). Patients in the NSAID group experienced less pancreatic necrosis (p=0.019) and lower rates of pseudocyst formation (p=0.010). Other variables showed no difference between the two groups, specifically length of stay and mortality. Conclusions Routine NSAID use may exert a protective effect on the development of AP, its severity, and complications. Therapeutic use of NSAIDs in acute presentations with pancreatitis should be further evaluated.</p

Serious complications of pancreatoduodenectomy correlate with lower rates of adjuvant chemotherapy: results from the recurrence after Whipple's (RAW) study

Introduction: adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) can prolong overall survival (OS) after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). However, fitness for AC may be influenced by postoperative recovery. We aimed to investigate if serious (Clavien-Dindo grade ≥ IIIa) postoperative complications affected AC rates, disease recurrence and OS.Materials and methods: data were extracted from the Recurrence After Whipple's (RAW) study (n = 1484), a retrospective study of PD outcomes (29 centres from eight countries). Patients who died within 90-days of PD were excluded. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to compare OS in those receiving or not receiving AC, and those with and without serious postoperative complications. The groups were then compared using univariable and multivariable tests.Results: patients who commenced AC (vs no AC) had improved OS (median difference: (MD): 201 days), as did those who completed their planned course of AC (MD: 291 days, p &lt; 0.0001). Those who commenced AC were younger (mean difference: 2.7 years, p = 0.0002), more often (preoperative) American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade I-II (74% vs 63%, p = 0.004) and had less often experienced a serious postoperative complication (10% vs 18%, p = 0.002). Patients who developed a serious postoperative complication were less often ASA grade I-II (52% vs 73%, p = 0.0004) and less often commenced AC (58% vs 74%, p = 0.002).Conclusion: in our multicentre study of PD outcomes, PDAC patients who received AC had improved OS, and those who experienced a serious postoperative complication commenced AC less frequently. Selected high-risk patients may benefit from targeted preoperative optimisation and/or neoadjuvant chemotherapy.</p

Predictors of actual five-year survival and recurrence after pancreatoduodenectomy for ampullary adenocarcinoma: results from an international multicentre retrospective cohort study

Background: pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) is recommended in fit patients with a resectable ampullary adenocarcinoma (AA). We aimed to identify predictors of five-year recurrence/survival.Methods: data were extracted from the Recurrence After Whipple's (RAW) study, a multicentre retrospective study of PD patients with a confirmed head of pancreas or periampullary malignancy (June 1st, 2012-May 31st, 2015). Patients with AA who developed recurrence/died within five-years were compared to those who did not.Results: 394 patients were included and actual five-year survival was 54%. Recurrence affected 45% and the median time-to-recurrence was 14 months. Local only, local and distant, and distant only recurrence affected 34, 41 and 94 patients, respectively (site unknown: 7). Among those with recurrence, the most common sites were the liver (32%), local lymph nodes (14%) and lung/pleura (13%). Following multivariable tests, number of resected nodes, histological T stage &gt; II, lymphatic invasion, perineural invasion (PNI), peripancreatic fat invasion (PPFI) and ≥1 positive resection margin correlated with increased recurrence and reduced survival. Furthermore, ≥1 positive margin, PPFI and PNI were all associated with reduced time-to-recurrence.Conclusions: this multicentre retrospective study of PD outcomes identified numerous histopathological predictors of AA recurrence. Patients with these high-risk features might benefit from adjuvant therapy.</p

Postoperative complications after pancreatoduodenectomy for malignancy: results from the Recurrence After Whipple's (RAW) study

Background: pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) is associated with significant postoperative morbidity. Surgeons should have a sound understanding of the potential complications for consenting and benchmarking purposes. Furthermore, preoperative identification of high-risk patients can guide patient selection and potentially allow for targeted prehabilitation and/or individualized treatment regimens. Using a large multicentre cohort, this study aimed to calculate the incidence of all PD complications and identify risk factors.Method: data were extracted from the Recurrence After Whipple's (RAW) study, a retrospective cohort study of PD outcomes (29 centres from 8 countries, 2012-2015). The incidence and severity of all complications was recorded and potential risk factors for morbidity, major morbidity (Clavien-Dindo grade &gt; IIIa), postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF), post-pancreatectomy haemorrhage (PPH) and 90-day mortality were investigated.Results: among the 1348 included patients, overall morbidity, major morbidity, POPF, PPH and perioperative death affected 53 per cent (n = 720), 17 per cent (n = 228), 8 per cent (n = 108), 6 per cent (n = 84) and 4 per cent (n = 53), respectively. Following multivariable tests, a high BMI (P = 0.007), an ASA grade &gt; II (P &lt; 0.0001) and a classic Whipple approach (P = 0.005) were all associated with increased overall morbidity. In addition, ASA grade &gt; II patients were at increased risk of major morbidity (P &lt; 0.0001), and a raised BMI correlated with a greater risk of POPF (P = 0.001).Conclusion: in this multicentre study of PD outcomes, an ASA grade &gt; II was a risk factor for major morbidity and a high BMI was a risk factor for POPF. Patients who are preoperatively identified to be high risk may benefit from targeted prehabilitation or individualized treatment regimens.</p

Does an extensive diagnostic workup for upfront resectable pancreatic cancer result in a delay which affects survival? Results from an international multicentre study

Backgrounds/aims: pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) is recommended in fit patients with a carcinoma (PDAC) of the pancreatic head, and a delayed resection may affect survival. This study aimed to correlate the time from staging to PD with long-term survival, and study the impact of preoperative investigations (if any) on the timing of surgery.Methods: data were extracted from the Recurrence After Whipple's (RAW) study, a multicentre retrospective study of PD outcomes. Only PDAC patients who underwent an upfront resection were included. Patients who received neoadjuvant chemo-/radiotherapy were excluded. Group A (PD within 28 days of most recent preoperative computed tomography [CT]) was compared to group B (&gt; 28 days).Results: a total of 595 patents were included. Compared to group A (median CT-PD time: 12.5 days, interquartile range: 6-21), group B (49 days, 39-64.5) had similar one-year survival (73% vs. 75%, p = 0.6), five-year survival (23% vs. 21%, p = 0.6) and median time-todeath (17 vs. 18 months, p = 0.8). Staging laparoscopy (43 vs. 29.5 days, p = 0.009) and preoperative biliary stenting (39 vs. 20 days, p &lt; 0.001) were associated with a delay to PD, but magnetic resonance imaging (32 vs. 32 days, p = 0.5), positron emission tomography (40 vs. 31 days, p &gt; 0.99) and endoscopic ultrasonography (28 vs. 32 days, p &gt; 0.99) were not.Conclusions: although a treatment delay may give rise to patient anxiety, our findings would suggest this does not correlate with worse survival. A delay may be necessary to obtain further information and minimize the number of PD patients diagnosed with early disease recurrence.</p