Regional business cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?

We use National Bank of New Zealand Regional Economic Activity data, to identify and characterise classical business cycle turning points, for New Zealand's 14 regions and aggregate New Zealand activity. Using Concordance statistic measures, logistic model and GMM estimation methods, meaningful regional business cycles have been identified and a number of significant associations established. All regions exhibit cyclical asymmetry for both durations and amplitudes, and synchronisations between aggregate NZ activity and each region are contemporaneous. The regional cycles rarely die of old age but are terminated by particular events. The regions most highly synchronised with the NZ activity cycle are Auckland, Canterbury, and Nelson-Marlborough; those least so are Gisborne and Southland. Noticeably strong co-movements are evident for certain regions. Geographical proximity matters, and unusually dry conditions can be associated with cyclical downturns in certain regions. There is no discernable evidence of association with net immigration movements, and no significant evidence of regional cycle movements being associated with real national house price cycles. The agriculture-based nature of the New Zealand economy is highlighted by the strong influence of external economic shocks on rural economic performance. In particular, there is considerable evidence of certain regional cycles being associated with movements in New Zealand's aggregate terms of trade, real prices of milksolids, real dairy land prices and total rural land prices.Classical business cycle; Turning Points; Regional business cycles; Concordance statistics; New Zealand

Regional business cycles in New Zealand:Do they exist? What might drive them?

We use National Bank of New Zealand Regional Economic Activity data, to identify and characterise classical business cycle turning points, for New Zealand’s 14 regions and aggregate New Zealand activity. Using Concordance statistic measures, logistic model and GMM estimation methods, meaningful regional business cycles have been identified and a number of significant associations established. All regions exhibit cyclical asymmetry for both durations and amplitudes, and synchronisations between aggregate NZ activity and each region are contemporaneous. The regional cycles rarely die of old age but are terminated by particular events. The regions most highly synchronised with the NZ activity cycle are Auckland, Canterbury, and Nelson- Marlborough; those least so are Gisborne and Southland. Noticeably strong co-movements are evident for certain regions. Geographical proximity matters, and unusually dry conditions can be associated with cyclical downturns in certain regions. There is no discernable evidence of association with net immigration movements, and no significant evidence of regional cycle movements being associated with real national house price cycles. The agriculture-based nature of the New Zealand economy is highlighted by the strong influence of external economic shocks on rural economic performance. In particular, there is considerable evidence of certain regional cycles being associated with movements in New Zealand’s aggregate terms of trade, real prices of milksolids, real dairy land prices and total rural land prices.Classical business cycle; Turning Points; Regional business cycles; Concordance statistics; New Zealand

Regional Business Cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?

We use National Bank of New Zealand Regional Economic Activity data, to identify and characterise classical business cycle turning points, for New Zealand’s 14 regions and aggregate New Zealand activity. Using Concordance statistic measures, logistic model and GMM estimation methods, meaningful regional business cycles have been identified and a number of significant associations established. All regions exhibit cyclical asymmetry for both durations and amplitudes, and synchronisations between aggregate NZ activity and each region are contemporaneous. The regional cycles rarely die of old age but are terminated by particular events. The regions most highly synchronised with the NZ activity cycle are Auckland, Canterbury, and Nelson-Marlborough; those least so are Gisborne and Southland. Noticeably strong co-movements are evident for certain regions. Geographical proximity matters, and unusually dry conditions can be associated with cyclical downturns in certain regions. There is no discernable evidence of association with net immigration movements, and no significant evidence of regional cycle movements being associated with real house price cycles. The agriculture-based nature of the New Zealand economy is highlighted by the strong influence of external economic shocks on rural economic performance. In particular, there is considerable evidence of certain regional cycles being associated with movements in New Zealand’s aggregate terms of trade, real prices of milksolids, real dairy land prices and total rural land prices. JEL Classification: C22, E32, R11, R12, R15 Keywords: Classical business cycle; Turning Points; Regional business cycles; Concordance statistics; New Zealand

Our Difference

In the mountains of Eastern Tennessee, Southwest Virginia, Western North Carolina, Eastern Kentucky, and Southeastern Ohio lived a mystery people commonly referred to as the Melungeons. When the first European settlers arrived in this region of the Appalachians in the 1790's they found tribes of Indians, but living outside of the Indian tribes they also found these dark skinned people who came to be known as Melungeons. The greatest concentration of Melungeons was in Hancock County, Tennessee. They were located high in Newman's ridge in the valleys parallel with the ridge along Blackwater Creek in the Blackwater Community, in Fisher Valley, as well as in Lee and Scott Counties of Virginia. In later years there was a migration of these people into Hardin County, Kentucky and later into the Carmel area of Southern Ohio. In order to understand the Melungeon people it was necessary to study not only where they resided last, but also to trace their migration and to examine the choice of places for migration. The migrations of Melungeons to Kentucky and Ohio occurred later, dating to the mid to late 1800's, so a closer study of Tennessee and Virginia migrations was necessary to discover who these people were and how they gained their status. These clans of the mountains have hidden themselves away from the general population in an effort to avoid discrimination due to their physical appearance and cultural differences. The Melungeons proved themselves to be a proud and independent people who existed by "hacking and grubbing out a habitation in the Appalachian wilderness... they asked of their surrounding neighbors only to be left alone, to live in peace. They received in return economic deprivation, intolerance, prejudice, and discrimination" (Price 5).Master'sCollege of Arts and Sciences: Liberal StudiesUniversity of Michiganhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/117780/1/HallJ.pd

Constitutional Law - Federal Occupation of Field of Control of Subversives

Defendant was chairman of the Communist Party for the western district of Pennsylvania. He was charged with willfully advocating the violent overthrow of the United States Government, and his conviction under state statute was sustained by the superior court. On appeal, held, reversed. The federal Smith Act pre-empted the field of control of subversive activities and the state law is therefore void. Commonwealth v. Nelson, 377 Pa. 58, 104 A. (2d) 133 (1954)

Admininstrative Law - Federal Injunctive Relief Against State Administrative Orders

The increasing tendency of state legislatures to establish administrative agencies to regulate various specialized fields has created serious new problems for both courts and lawyers. In dealing with state administrative agencies, the federal courts have been confronted with the dual problem of protecting the individual\u27s constitutional rights and at the same time respecting the prerogatives of the states. The result has been the development of a hands-off policy in the federal courts, leaving the initial determination of rights to the state courts, and limiting the use of the federal injunctive power. The purpose of this comment is to indicate the limitations now placed on resort to federal injunctive relief against state administrative orders

INTERNATIONAL LAW-POWER OF GOVERNMENT-IN-EXILE TO ENACT VALID LEGISLATION

After occupying the Netherlands, Germany confiscated bonds of Netherlands nationals and sold them in the black market. Archimedes, an American national, purchased such bonds from a Swiss firm in violation of the Trading with the Enemy Act and executive freezing order. The bonds were placed in a blocked account in the Federal Reserve Bank. A suit by the Netherlands was removed to the New York federal district court and Archimedes was interpleaded. The Netherlands claimed title under a decree made in exile vesting protective title in the Netherlands government. While holding that the complaint stated a cause of action, the court ruled that the Netherlands decree was invalid and that Archimedes, due to willful ignorance of the facts and his violation of the freezing order, had no claim. On appeal, held, affirmed as to Archimedes on both grounds, but reversed as to the Netherlands, the decree of the government-in-exile being valid and no American claims existing. State of the Netherlands v. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, (2d Cir. 1953) 201 F. (2d) 455

Constitutional Law - Civil Rights Act - Civil Liability of State Judicial Officers

In 1940 defendant, a state judge, granted an ex parte order transferring plaintiff, then a voluntary inmate of a Massachusetts school for the feeble-minded, to the Department of Defective Delinquents. Released on habeas corpus in 1951, plaintiff brought suit under the Civil Rights Act, claiming a denial of notice and hearing in violation of the due process clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. On appeal, held, a judge is not liable at common law or under the Civil Rights Act for acts done in the exercise of his judicial function. Francis v. Crafts, (1st Cir. 1953) 203 F. (2d) 809, cert. den. (U.S. 1953) 74 S. Ct. 43

EVIDENCE-PRESUMTIONS-ALABAMA STATUTE MAKING COMPLIANCE WITH FEDERAL WAGERING TAX LAW PRIMA FACIE EVIDENCE OF VIOLATION OF STATE GAMBLING LAW

In 1953 the Alabama legislature, taking advantage of the federal occupational tax on professional gamblers, enacted legislation making possession of the federal wagering tax stamp prima facie evidence of violation of the state gambling laws

Constitutional Law - Civil Rights - Right of Negro to Vote in State Primary Elections

The Jaybird Democratic Association was formed in Fort Bend County, Texas, in 1889. Membership was open to all white voters in the county. The association was not governed by the state statute regulating political parties. Candidates nominated by the Jaybird Party entered the Democratic county primary as individuals, not as Jaybird candidates, but those candidates won both the Democratic primary and the general election with only one exception in the entire history of the Jaybird Party. Terry, a Negro, sought a declaratory judgment and injunction permitting Negroes to vote in the Jaybird primary. The federal district court ruled that the association was a political party and that Negroes could vote in its primary. The Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit reversed. On certiorari from the Supreme Court, held, the exclusion of Negroes from the Jaybird primary violates the Fifteenth Amendment and the Civil Rights Act. Terry v. Adams, 345 U.S. 461, 73 S.Ct. 809 (1953)