Beyond Kuznets: persistent regional inequality in China

Regional inequality in China appears to be persistent and even growing in the past two decades. We study potential offsetting factors and interprovincial migration to shed light on the sources of this persistence. We find that some of the inequality could be attributed to differences in quality of labor, industry composition, and geographical location of provinces. We also demonstrate that interprovincial migration, while driven in part by wage differences across provinces, does not offset these differences. Finally, we find that interprovincial redistribution did not help offset regional inequality during our sample period.Income distribution ; China

“TAKE PITY OF YOUR TOWN AND OF YOUR PEOPLE”

It has been argued that the practice of siege warfare is at the very limit of legality under the terms of International Humanitarian Law.[1] The question addressed in this essay might be rephrased: how do the laws of armed conflict permitsieges to become humanitarian disasters? More precisely, can military doctrine regarding the efficacy of siege warfare operations to induce surrender of besieged forces comply in real world terms with the laws of armed conflict? Since February, 2022 it is alleged that Russian armed forces perpetrated a number of crimes against humanity in Ukraine during sieges of cities such as Mariupol. These alleged crimes include indiscriminate targeting of civilian habitation and attacks on evacuation corridors.[2] In the 1990s, siege warfare in the former Yugoslavia provoked international censure and criminal prosecution of perpetrators. Nevertheless, siege operations in Syria and Kashmir today show no sign of respecting the rights of civilian populations despite international censure. The core legal issue regarding sieges is the principle of distinction between combatants and non-combatant civilians and thus decisions regarding targeting and proportionality. The essay will show that distinction is a recent innovation in International Humanitarian Law and uncertainly embodied in military doctrine. The first part reviews evolving IHL norms pertinent to modern sieges. In the second, the essay examines modern jurisprudence regarding the conduct of siege warfare derived from the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) prosecution of Major General Stanislav Galić and Major General Dragomir Milosević.[3]    [1] Riordan, K., ‘Shelling, Sniping and Starvation: the Law of Armed Conflict and the Lessons of the Siege of Sarajevo’, Victoria University of Wellington Law Review, 41 (2), p.150; Watts, S., Under Siege: International Humanitarian Law and Security Council Practice Concerning Urban Siege Operations’, Research and Policy Paper, CHE Project, May 2014. [2] https://blogs.icrc.org/law-and-policy/2022/03/17/armed-conflict-in-ukraine-a-recap-of-basic-ihl-rules/ [3] https://www.icty.org/case/gali

Variation in tree mortality and regeneration affect forest carbon recovery following fuel treatments and wildfire

Forest fuel treatments such as thinning and burning have been proposed as tools to stabilize carbon stocks in fire-prone forests in the Western U.S. Although treatments immediately reduce forest carbon storage, losses may be paid back over the long-term if treatment sufficiently reduces future wildfire severity. Less severe wildfire produces fewer direct and indirect carbon emissions, and severely burned stands may be more susceptible to deforestation. Although fire severity and post-fire tree regeneration have been indicated as important influences on long-term carbon dynamics, it remains unclear how natural variability in these processes might affect the ability of fuel treatments to protect forest carbon resources. We surveyed a wildfire where fuel treatments were put in place before fire and estimated the short-term impact of treatment and wildfire on aboveground carbon stocks at our study site. We then used a common vegetation growth simulator in conjunction with sensitivity analysis techniques to assess how timescales of carbon recovery after fire are sensitive to variation in rates of fire-related tree mortality, and post-fire tree regeneration. We found that fuel reduction treatments were successful at ameliorating fire severity at our study site by removing an estimated 36% of aboveground biomass. Treated and untreated stands stored similar amounts of carbon three years after wildfire, but differences in fire severity were such that untreated stands maintained only 7% of aboveground carbon as live trees, versus 51% in treated stands. Over the long-term, our simulations suggest that treated stands in our study area will recover baseline carbon storage 10-35 years more quickly than untreated stands. Our sensitivity analysis found that rates of fire-related tree mortality strongly influence estimates of post-fire carbon recovery. Rates of regeneration were less influential on recovery timing, except when fire severity was high. Our ability to understand how anthropogenic and natural disturbances affect forest carbon resources hinges on our ability to adequately represent processes known to be important to long-term forest carbon dynamics. To the extent that fuel treatments are able to ameliorate tree mortality rates or prevent deforestation resulting from wildfire, treatments may be a viable strategy to stabilize existing forest carbon stocks

An approach for benchmarking the numerical solutions of stochastic compartmental models

An approach is introduced for comparing the estimated states of stochastic compartmental models for an epidemic or biological process with analytically obtained solutions from the corresponding system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Positive integer valued samples from a stochastic model are generated numerically at discrete time intervals using either the Reed-Frost chain Binomial or Gillespie algorithm. The simulated distribution of realisations is compared with an exact solution obtained analytically from the ODE model. Using this novel methodology this work demonstrates it is feasible to check that the realisations from the stochastic compartmental model adhere to the ODE model they represent. There is no requirement for the model to be in any particular state or limit. These techniques are developed using the stochastic compartmental model for a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic process. The Lotka-Volterra model is then used as an example of the generality of the principles developed here. This approach presents a way of testing/benchmarking the numerical solutions of stochastic compartmental models, e.g. using unit tests, to check that the computer code along with its corresponding algorithm adheres to the underlying ODE model.Comment: 21 pages 3 figure

Decarbonising existing homes in Wales: a participatory behavioural systems mapping approach

To reduce carbon emissions, urgent change is needed to high-carbon human behaviours including home energy use. Previous policy failures point to insufficient integration of systemic and behavioural approaches which are too often seen as alternative and incompatible approaches to bring about change. A novel behavioural systems mapping approach was used to inform national policy recommendations for energy-saving retrofit of homes in Wales. Three participatory workshops were held with the independent Welsh residential decarbonisation advisory group ('the Advisory Group') to: (1) map relationships between actors, behaviours and influences on behaviour within the home retrofit system; (2) provide training in the Behaviour Change Wheel (BCW) framework and (3) use these to develop policy recommendations for interventions. Recommendations were analysed using the capability, opportunity and motivation (COM-B) model of behaviour to assess whether they addressed these factors. Two behavioural systems maps (BSMs) were produced, representing privately rented and owner-occupied housing tenures. The main causal pathways and feedback loops in each map are described. Necessary interventions to achieve national-scale retrofit included: government-led investment, campaigns and awareness-building, financial-sector funding mechanisms, enforcement of regulations and creating more streamlined and trusted supply chain services. Of 27 final policy recommendations, six addressed capability, 24 opportunity and 12 motivation. Participatory behavioural systems mapping can be used in conjunction with behaviour change frameworks to develop policy recommendations that address the behavioural determinants of complex environmental problems in a systemic way. Research is underway to refine and extend the approach through application to other sustainability challenges and methods of constructing systems maps