SINE QUA NON: INFERRING KODJADERMEN-GUMELNIȚA-KARANOVO VI POPULATION DYNAMICS FROM AGGREGATED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS OF RADIOCARBON DATES

International audiencePast human population dynamics play a key role in integrated models of understanding socio-ecological change over time. However, little analysis on this issue has been carried out for the prehistoric societies in the Lower Danube and Eastern Balkans area. Here, we use summed probability distributions of radiocarbon dates to investigate potential regional and local variation population dynamics. Our study adopts a formal model-testing approach to the fifth millennium BC archaeological radiocarbon record, performing a region-wide, comparative analysis of the demographic trajectories of the area along lower Danube River. We follow the current framework of theoretical models of population growth and perform global and regional significance and spatial permutation tests on the data. Specifically, we investigate whether populations on both sides of the Danube follow a logistic pattern of steady growth, followed by a major decline over time. Finally, our analysis of local-scale growth investigates whether considerable heterogeneity or homogeneity within the region may be observed over the time span considered here. The results show both similarities and differences in the population trends across the area. Our findings are showcased in relation to the cultural characteristics of the region's 5th millennium BC societies, and future research directions are also suggested