The Use of Historical Census Data for Mortality and Fertility Research

This paper illustrates the application of indirect techniques of fertility and mortality estimation to historical census data, both in published form and as micro census samples derived from the original enumerators' manuscripts. There are many instances in which census data exist but adequate vital registration data do not, such as in the United States prior to 1933, when the Birth and Death Registration Areas finally covered the entire nation. Since the United States has taken decennial censuses since 1790, and since all the original population schedules except those for 1890 have been preserved, it is possible to apply these indirect methods. For example, the censuses of 1900 and 1910 asked questions on children ever born, children surviving, and duration of current marriage, but this information was never tabulated or used for 1900 and only partly tabulated for 1910. The Public Use Samples of the 1900 and 1910 censuses make possible the utilization of those data to estimate levels, differentials, and even recent trends in childhood mortality. Application of own-children methods to samples of the censuses since 1850 permits estimation of age-specific overall and marital fertility rates. Finally, the use of the 1900 Public Use Sample in conjunction with published data on parity from the 1910 census (or tabulations from the 1910 Public Use Sample) allows application of the two-census, parity increment method of birth rate estimation.

Health, Height, Nutrition, and Mortality: Evidence on the "Antebellum Puzzle" from Union Army Recruits in the Middle of the Nineteenth Century

The Antebellum Puzzle' describes the situation of declining stature and pos mortality in the three decades prior to the American Civil War (1861-65). It is this period was one of rapid economic growth and development in the United State the debate has centered on whether the American diet, both in terms of protein a deteriorated in the middle of the 19th century. But the mortality environment a have worsened (or at least did not improve), connected with factors such as urba commercialization, and increased geographic mobility. This paper uses data on t Union Army recruits as an indicator of the standard of living of Americans durin Particular attention is paid to New York State and comparisons to the rest of th York State, mortality was not improving in the antebellum period and was deterio York City. For the United States and for New York State, urbanization was negat heights, as was the census death rate in 1850 and a measure of mobility (proport population foreign born). Although, New York State's agriculture was rapidly co in this era and specializing in dairy products, its nutrition may have been dete with substantial local variation. Mortality was also not improving and worsened Both contributed to a decline in this biological indicator of the standard of li both New York and the whole United States were experiencing Smithian' economic g (induced by transport improvements and widening markets) with negative externali York State was an area in advance of much of the nation in terms of both urban/i agricultural development in the antebellum period.

Ethnic Differences in Demographic Behavior in the United States: Has There Been Convergence?

This paper looks at the fertility, mortality, and marriage experience of racial, ethnic, and nativity groups in the United States from the 19th to the late 20th centuries. The first part consist of a description and critique of the racial and ethnic categories used in the federal census and in the published vital statistics. The second part looks at these three dimensions of demographic behavior. There has been both absolute and relative convergence of fertility across groups, It has been of relatively recent origin and has been due, in large part, to stable, or even slightly increasing, birth rates for the majority white population combined with declining birth rates for blacks and the Asian-origin, Hispanic-origin, and Amerindian populations. This has not been true for mortality. The black population has experienced absolute convergence but relative deterioration in mortality (neonatal and infant mortality, maternal mortality, expectation of life at birth, and age-adjusted death rates), in contrast to the Amerindian and Asian-origin populations. The Asian-origin population actually now has age-adjusted death rates significantly lower than those for the white population. The disadvantaged condition of the black population and the deteriorating social safety net are the likely origins of this outcome. Finally, there was a trend toward earlier and more extensive marriage from about 1900 up to the 1960s. At this point, coincident with the end of the 'Baby Boom,' there has been a movement to later marriage for both males and females among whites, blacks, and the Hispanic-origin populations. This trend has been more extreme in the black population, especially among females. There has also been a significant rise in proportions never-married at ages 45-54 among blacks and, to a lesser extent, among Hispanics. So here too, there has been some divergence.

The Urban Mortality Transition in the United States, 1800-1940

In the United States in the 19th and early 20th centuries, there was a substantial mortality 'penalty' to living in urban places. This circumstance was shared with other nations. By around 1940, this penalty had been largely eliminated, and it was healthier, in many cases, to reside in the city than in the countryside. Despite the lack of systematic national data before 1933, it is possible to describe the phenomenon of the urban mortality transition. Early in the 19th century, the United States was not particularly urban (only 6.1% in 1800), a circumstance which led to a relatively favorable mortality situation. A national crude death rate of 20-25 per thousand per year would have been likely. Some early data indicate that mortality was substantially higher in cities, was higher in larger relative to smaller cities, and was higher in the South relative to the North. By 1900, the nation had become about 40% urban (and 56% by 1940). It appears that death rates, especially in urban areas, actually rose (or at least did not decline) over the middle of the 19th century. Increased urbanization, as well as developments in transport and commercialization and increased movements of people into and throughout the nation, contributed to this. Rapid urban growth and an inadequate scientific understanding of disease processes contributed to the mortality crisis of the early and middle nineteenth century in American cities. The sustained mortality transition only began about the 1870s. Thereafter the decline of urban mortality proceeded faster than in rural places, assisted by significant public works improvements and advances in public health and eventually medical science. Much of the process had been completed by the 1940s. The urban penalty had been largely eliminated and mortality continued to decline despite the continued growth in the urban share of the population.

Lead Pipes and Child Mortality

Beginning around 1880, public health issues and engineering advances spurred the installation of city water and sewer systems. As part of this growth, many cities chose to use lead service pipes to connect residences to city water systems. This choice had negative consequences for child mortality, although the consequences were often hard to observe amid the overall falling death rates. This paper uses national data from the public use sample of the 1900 Census of Population and data on city use of lead pipes in 1897 to estimate the effect of lead pipes on child mortality. In 1900, 29 percent of the married women in the United States who had given birth to at least one child and were age forty-five or younger lived in locations where lead service pipes were used to deliver water. Because the effect of lead pipes depended on the acidity and hardness of the water, much of the negative effect was concentrated on the densely populated eastern seaboard. In the full sample, women who lived on the eastern seaboard in cities with lead pipes experienced increased child mortality of 9.3 percent relative to the sample average. These estimates suggest that the number of child deaths attributable to the use of lead pipes numbered in the tens of thousands. Many surviving children may have experienced substantial IQ impairment as a result of lead exposure. The tragedy is that lead problems were avoidable, particularly once data became available on the toxicity of lead. These findings have implications for current policy and events.

Childhood Mortality & Nutritional Status as Indicators of Standard of Living: Evidence from World War I Recruits in the United States

This paper examines variations in stature and the Body Mass Index (BMI) across space for the United States in 1917/18, using published data on the measurement of approximately 890,000 recruits for the American Army for World War I. It also connects those anthropometric measurements with an index of childhood mortality estimated from the censuses of 1900 and 1910. This index is taken to be an indicator of early childhood environment for these recruits. Aggregated data were published for states and groups of counties by the Surgeon General after the war. These data are related to regional data taken primarily from the censuses of 1900 and 1910. The results indicate that early childhood mortality was a good (negative) predictor of height and the body mass index, while it is also possible to predict early childhood experience from terminal adult height. Urbanization was important, although the importance declined over time. Income apparently had little effect on health in this period.