Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles

The control of epidemic malaria is a priority for the international health community and specific targets for the early detection and effective control of epidemics have been agreed. Interannual climate variability is an important determinant of epidemics in parts of Africa where climate drives both mosquito vector dynamics and parasite development rates. Hence, skilful seasonal climate forecasts may provide early warning of changes of risk in epidemic-prone regions. Here we discuss the development of a system to forecast probabilities of anomalously high and low malaria incidence with dynamically based, seasonal-timescale, multi-model ensemble predictions of climate, using leading global coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models developed in Europe. This forecast system is successfully applied to the prediction of malaria risk in Botswana, where links between malaria and climate variability are well established, adding up to four months lead time over malaria warnings issued with observed precipitation and having a comparably high level of probabilistic prediction skill. In years in which the forecast probability distribution is different from that of climatology, malaria decision-makers can use this information for improved resource allocation

Menschen-Rechte statt Almosen

Schüssler R. Menschen-Rechte statt Almosen. In: Hagedorn K, ed. Biotope der Ermutigung. Oldenburg: BIS-Verl. der Carl-von-Ossietzky-Univ.; 2008: 591-611

A coupled high resolution atmosphere-ocean model for the BALTEX region

A three-dimensional fully coupled high resolution atmosphere-ocean model for the BALTEX (Baltic Sea Experiment) region has been developed from two independent models, the atmospheric regional model REMO and the Kiel Baltic Sea model. The coupled model was set up in the framework of the BALTEX program to contribute to one of its major objectives, the investigation and quantification of the energy and water cycle in the Baltic Sea and its catchment area. As a first step towards the fully coupled system, sensitivity studies with different forcings for its uncoupled components, the atmosphere and ocean models. were performed. These sensitivity studies demonstrated that both models are able to produce rea onable results which in turn can act as forcing for the respective other model. In the first simulation of the fu lly coupled system the modeled sea surface temperatures (SST) agree well with satellite observations. Thus they are at least as good as the previously used SSTs from operational analyses and in some cases even better. The detailed evaluation of the coupled model results reveals that often the coupling effects are superimposed by advective influences and that only under specific conditions the atmospheric variables show a remarkable response to different fluxes. The atmosphere-ocean model is coupled directly via the corresponding fluxes across the interface between atmosphere and ocean. For the here presented simulation no flux corrections were necessary. Thus a consistent model system has been developed which can be utilized for further studies of the energy and water cycle in the BALTEX area