Global oil production: forecasts and methodologies

A range of forecasts of global oil production made between 1956 and the present day are listed. For the majority of these the methodology used to generate the forecast is described. The paper distinguishes between three types of forecast: group 1-quantitative analyses which predict that global oil production will reach a resource-limited peak in the near term, and certainly before the year 2020; group 2-forecasts that use quantitative methods, but which see no production peak within the forecast's time horizon (typically 2020 or 2030); group 3-nonquantitative analyses that rule out a resource-limited oil peak within the foreseeable future. The paper analyses these forecast types and suggests that group 1 forecasts are the most realistic

The Food-Energy-Climate Change Trilemma: Toward a Socio-Economic Analysis

The food-energy-climate change trilemma refers to the stark alternatives presented by the need to feed a world population growing to nine billion, the attendant risks of land conversion and use for global climate change, and the way these are interconnected with the energy crisis arising from the depletion of oil. Theorizing the interactions between political economies and their related natural environments, in terms of both finitudes of resources and generation of greenhouse gases, presents a major challenge to social sciences. Approaches from classical political economy, transition theory, economic geography, and political ecology, are reviewed before elaborating the neo-Polanyian approach adopted here. The case of Brazil, analysed with an `instituted economic process’ framework, demonstrates how the trilemma is a spatial and historical socio-economic phenomenon, varying significantly in its dynamics in different environmental and resource contexts. The paper concludes by highlighting challenges to developing a social scientific theory in this field. </jats:p

The Politics of Sustainability and Development

This review examines the relationships between politics, sustainability, and development. Following an overview of sustainability thinking across different traditions, the politics of resources and the influence of scarcity narratives on research, policy and practice are explored. This highlights the politics of transformations and the way these play out under combinations of technology-led, market-led, state-led, and citizen-led processes. In particular, this review points to the politics of alliance building and collective action for sustainability and development. Transformations cannot be managed or controlled, but must draw on an unruly politics, involving diverse knowledges and multiple actors. This review highlights how politics are articulated through regimes of truth, rule, and accumulation, and how understanding such political processes has implications for institutional and governance responses. The conclusion reflects on future research priorities and the methodological stance required for an effective response to the political challenges of sustainability and development.ESR