Evaluation of a chemoresponse assay as a predictive marker in the treatment of recurrent ovarian cancer: Further analysis of a prospective study

BACKGROUND: Recently, a prospective study reported improved clinical outcomes for recurrent ovarian cancer patients treated with chemotherapies indicated to be sensitive by a chemoresponse assay, compared with those patients treated with non-sensitive therapies, thereby demonstrating the assay's prognostic properties. Due to cross-drug response over different treatments and possible association of in vitro chemosensitivity of a tumour with its inherent biology, further analysis is required to ascertain whether the assay performs as a predictive marker as well. METHODS: Women with persistent or recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer (n=262) were empirically treated with one of 15 therapies, blinded to assay results. Each patient's tumour was assayed for responsiveness to the 15 therapies. The assay's ability to predict progression-free survival (PFS) was assessed by comparing the association when the assayed therapy matches the administered therapy (match) with the association when the assayed therapy is randomly selected, not necessarily matching the administered therapy (mismatch). RESULTS: Patients treated with assay-sensitive therapies had improved PFS vs patients treated with non-sensitive therapies, with the assay result for match significantly associated with PFS (hazard ratio (HR)=0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.50–0.91, P=0.009). On the basis of 3000 simulations, the mean HR for mismatch was 0.81 (95% range=0.66–0.99), with 3.4% of HRs less than 0.67, indicating that HR for match is lower than for mismatch. While 47% of tumours were non-sensitive to all assayed therapies and 9% were sensitive to all, 44% displayed heterogeneity in assay results. Improved outcome was associated with the administration of an assay-sensitive therapy, regardless of homogeneous or heterogeneous assay responses across all of the assayed therapies. CONCLUSIONS: These analyses provide supportive evidence that this chemoresponse assay is a predictive marker, demonstrating its ability to discern specific therapies that are likely to be more effective among multiple alternatives

Ex vivo chemosensitivity testing and gene expression profiling predict response towards adjuvant gemcitabine treatment in pancreatic cancer

Efficacy of chemotherapy for pancreatic cancer may be improved by tailoring it to individual chemosensitivity profiles. Identification of nonresponders before initiation of treatment may help to avoid side effects. In this study, primary pancreatic cancer cells were isolated from 18 patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer. Eight commonly used pancreatic cancer cell lines were used as controls. Ex vivo chemosensitivity for gemcitabine, 5-fluorouracil, mitomycin-C, cisplatinum, oxaliplatinum, paclitaxel and a combination of gemcitabine with oxaliplatinum or mitomycin-C was determined using a cellular ATP-based tumour chemosensitivity assay (ATP-TCA). Quantitative real-time–polymerase chain reaction was performed to determine RNA expression levels of genes implicated in chemoresistance. Chemosensitivity towards cytotoxic agents was highly variable in primary pancreatic cancer cells and pancreatic cancer cell lines. ATP-TCA results for gemcitabine correlated to the tissue expression of human equilibrative nucleoside transporter-1 (hENT1). Time to relapse in patients with gemcitabine-sensitive tumours was significantly higher than in patients with chemoresistant pancreatic cancers (P=0.01; 71 vs 269 days). Furthermore, time to relapse in gemcitabine-treated patients was related to hENT1 expression (P=0.0067). Thus, chemosensitivity testing using ATP-TCA in pancreatic cancer is feasible and correlated with time to relapse in gemcitabine-treated patients. This suggests that ATP-TCA testing could be used as a decision-making tool in the adjuvant treatment of pancreatic cancer

Disease-free survival versus overall survival as a primary end point for adjuvant colon cancer studies: individual patient data from 20,898 patients on 18 randomized trials.

PURPOSE: A traditional end point for colon adjuvant clinical trials is overall survival (OS), with 5 years demonstrating adequate follow-up. A shorter-term end point providing convincing evidence to allow treatment comparisons could significantly speed the translation of advances into practice. METHODS: Individual patient data were pooled from 18 randomized phase III colon cancer adjuvant clinical trials. Trials included 43 arms, with a pooled sample size of 20,898 patients. The primary hypothesis was that disease-free survival (DFS), with 3 years of follow-up, is an appropriate primary end point to replace OS with 5 years of follow-up. RESULTS: The recurrence rates for years 1 through 5 were 12%, 14%, 8%, 5%, and 3%, respectively. Median time from recurrence to death was 12 months. Eighty percent of recurrences were in the first 3 years; 91% of patients with recurrence by 3 years died before 5 years. Correlation between 3-year DFS and 5-year OS was 0.89. Comparing control versus experimental arms within each trial, the correlation between hazard ratios for DFS and OS was 0.92. Within-trial log-rank testing using both DFS and OS provided the same conclusion in 23 (92%) of 25 cases. Formal measures of surrogacy were satisfied. CONCLUSION: In patients treated on phase III adjuvant colon clinical trials, DFS and OS are highly correlated, both within patients and across trials. These results suggest that DFS after 3 years of median follow-up is an appropriate end point for adjuvant colon cancer clinical trials of fluorouracil-based regimens, although marginally significant DFS improvements may not translate into significant OS benefits

End points for colon cancer adjuvant trials: observations and recommendations based on individual patient data from 20,898 patients enrolled onto 18 randomized trials from the ACCENT Group.

PURPOSE: The traditional end point for colon adjuvant clinical trials is overall survival (OS). We previously validated disease-free survival (DFS) after 3-year follow-up as an excellent predictor of 5-year OS results. Here we explore shorter term DFS and OS end points, as well as stage dependency. METHODS: Individual patient data from 18 phase III trials including 43 arms and 20,898 patients were pooled. Association measures included correlation of event rates within arms, correlation of hazard ratios (HRs) between arms, trial level significance comparisons (via log-rank testing), and a formal surrogacy model. RESULTS: DFS at earlier times was less accurate in predicting OS than 3-year DFS, but 2-year DFS remained a strong predictor. DFS with 1-year minimum follow-up demonstrated perfect negative predicted value; all trials negative at 1 year for DFS were negative for 5-year OS. OS with 3-year minimum follow-up was also an excellent predictor for 5-year OS; OS at earlier time points provided inaccurate prediction. The association between 3-year DFS and 5-year OS was greater for stage III patients; correlation of HR within trials was 0.92 (95% CI, 0.85 to 0.95) for stage III patients and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.44 to 0.80) for stage II patients. CONCLUSION: DFS outcomes after 2- or 3-year median follow-up are excellent predictors of 5-year OS. DFS outcomes are appropriate for trials in which the majority of patients are stage III. DFS after 2- or 3-year median follow-up should be considered as the primary end point in future colon adjuvant trials

Disease-free survival versus overall survival as a primary end point for adjuvant colon cancer studies: individual patient data from 20,898 patients on 18 randomized trials.

PURPOSE: A traditional end point for colon adjuvant clinical trials is overall survival (OS), with 5 years demonstrating adequate follow-up. A shorter-term end point providing convincing evidence to allow treatment comparisons could significantly speed the translation of advances into practice. METHODS: Individual patient data were pooled from 18 randomized phase III colon cancer adjuvant clinical trials. Trials included 43 arms, with a pooled sample size of 20,898 patients. The primary hypothesis was that disease-free survival (DFS), with 3 years of follow-up, is an appropriate primary end point to replace OS with 5 years of follow-up. RESULTS: The recurrence rates for years 1 through 5 were 12%, 14%, 8%, 5%, and 3%, respectively. Median time from recurrence to death was 12 months. Eighty percent of recurrences were in the first 3 years; 91% of patients with recurrence by 3 years died before 5 years. Correlation between 3-year DFS and 5-year OS was 0.89. Comparing control versus experimental arms within each trial, the correlation between hazard ratios for DFS and OS was 0.92. Within-trial log-rank testing using both DFS and OS provided the same conclusion in 23 (92%) of 25 cases. Formal measures of surrogacy were satisfied. CONCLUSION: In patients treated on phase III adjuvant colon clinical trials, DFS and OS are highly correlated, both within patients and across trials. These results suggest that DFS after 3 years of median follow-up is an appropriate end point for adjuvant colon cancer clinical trials of fluorouracil-based regimens, although marginally significant DFS improvements may not translate into significant OS benefits