Perspectives pour la paix mondiale à une époque de turbulence : Les États-Unis et les crises internationales

Recent events in world politics raise Fundamental doubts about the reasons behind conflict, crisis and war. What, for example, causes a state to become involved in an international crisis ? In an attempt to answer that question, the present study focuses on the experiences of a leading member of the international System over a sustained period of time, specifically, the United States in the post-World War 11 era. Ultimately, in order to develop a more comprehensive explanation of activity by the United States in international crises, this investigation combines external factors with others from within the state. Following a brief review of the research program on conflict linkage, internal attributes with potential relevance to involvement by states in crises are identified. External influences on foreign policy, consistent with the tradition of realpolitik, also are specified. These elements then are combined in a model of conflict linkage. Using data pertaining both the US as a polity and an actor in the international System, propositions derived from the model are tested in the crisis domain. The study concludes with some recommendations for further research on the linkage of domestic and foreign conflict, with particular reference to the explanation of crises

Domestic instability, government popularity and the causes of international conflict : a new look at diversion theory

One of the most perplexing issues for students of politics is the proper role of externalization in accounting for interstate conflict. This process, which connects events at the domestic and international levels, also has been referred to as conflict linkage, conflict and cohesion, diversion and projection. The diverse terminology is fitting, because the pursuit by national elites of internal cohesion through external conflict is anything but a matter of consensus among scholars.The present investigation will seek a more precise delineation of causes and effects. Following a review of the research program on conflict linkage, a reformulated model of externalization will be presented. Propositions will be derived from the model. Data pertaining to the experiences of the United States, the United Kingdom, and France at the domestic level and in international crises during the post-World War II era will be used to evaluate the propositions. These results will be in turn compared to the more traditional explanation on the causes of international conflict; namely, theories derived from the Realist perspective. The study then concludes with some recommendations for further research on the linkage of domestic and foreign conflict

O Brasil e o Grão Caribe: fundamentos para uma nova agenda de trabalho Brazil and the Great Caribbean basin: the making of a new agenda

O artigo aborda as relações econômicas, políticas e de segurança internacional vigentes entre o Brasil e os 25 países da bacia do Caribe - México, América Central, Antilhas, Colômbia, Venezuela, Guiana e Suriname, além de uma dezena de territórios coloniais administrados por potências extra-regionais. Constata-se que as relações econômicas são muito intensas, especialmente em termos comerciais e de investimentos produtivos. O diálogo político entre as partes é construtivo, relevante e cada vez mais significativo. No que diz respeito às questões de segurança, vale destacar suas convergências, bem como certas divergências de natureza geopolítica derivadas do projeto brasileiro para a América do Sul. No final do artigo, propõem-se três cenários plausíveis para o futuro das relações entre Brasil e Caribe.<br>The paper explores the economic, political and security relations between Brazil and the 25 Caribbean countries - Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean islands, Colombia, Venezuela, Guiana and Suriname, inasmuch the colonial territories. The text suggest that the economic relations are very intensive. The political dialogue is constructive. In the security field, there are some convergences and divergences derived from the brazilian=s South American project. At the end, the paper consider three reasonable scenarios for the Brazilian-Caribbean relations