Sandy coastlines under threat of erosion

Sandy beaches occupy more than one-third of the global coastline(1) and have high socioeconomic value related to recreation, tourism and ecosystem services(2). Beaches are the interface between land and ocean, providing coastal protection from marine storms and cyclones(3). However the presence of sandy beaches cannot be taken for granted, as they are under constant change, driven by meteorological(4,5), geological(6) and anthropogenic factors(1,7). A substantial proportion of the world's sandy coastline is already eroding(1,7), a situation that could be exacerbated by climate change(8,9). Here, we show that ambient trends in shoreline dynamics, combined with coastal recession driven by sea level rise, could result in the near extinction of almost half of the world's sandy beaches by the end of the century. Moderate GHG emission mitigation could prevent 40% of shoreline retreat. Projected shoreline dynamics are dominated by sea level rise for the majority of sandy beaches, but in certain regions the erosive trend is counteracted by accretive ambient shoreline changes; for example, in the Amazon, East and Southeast Asia and the north tropical Pacific. A substantial proportion of the threatened sandy shorelines are in densely populated areas, underlining the need for the design and implementation of effective adaptive measures. Erosion is a major problem facing sandy beaches that will probably worsen with climate change and sea-level rise. Half the world's beaches, many of which are in densely populated areas, could disappear by the end of the century under current trends; mitigation could lessen retreat by 40%.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods: We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings: In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0–13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2–111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133–153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00–7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8–12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1–6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0–73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0–88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0–55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0–42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0–18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0–7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0–24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0–18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5–3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5–3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57–8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97–3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01–1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7–90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2–62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3–48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7–33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8–41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8–29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4–33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6–23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6–28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4–19·0]). Interpretation: The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Awareness of breast cancer among adolescent girls in Colombo, Sri Lanka: A school based study

Background: Breast cancer is the commonest cancer in women worldwide. Although programmes promoting breast cancer awareness are being carried out throughout Sri Lanka, few have targeted school students. We conducted this study to assess the knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding breast cancer with reference to screening, services available, breast self-examination, and sources of information, among adolescent schoolgirls in the Colombo District of Sri Lanka. Methods: The knowledge, attitudes and practices related to breast cancer were assessed among 859 adolescent girls in schools within the Colombo District, using a self-administered questionnaire. Classes and students were selected using multi-stage stratified cluster sampling. Results: Of the total sample, approximately 60% of respondents identified 'history of breast lump', 'family history of breast cancer' & 'exposure to irradiation' as risk factors for breast cancer. Although most were aware that the presence of a breast lump was an important warning sign, awareness of other warning signs was poor. Only 35.6% identified mammogram as an effective screening method. One third of the sample maintained that they are unaware of symptoms, diagnostics and treatment of breast cancer. Of those who were aware, 90.6% named surgery as a treatment option for breast cancer, 79.4% were unaware that chemotherapy is used. Of the total sample, 17.1% knew how to perform breast self-examination, and only 9.4% were aware of currently available breast cancer screening services. Knowledge was significantly better among students who had a relative with breast cancer. Conclusions: There were significant deficiencies in knowledge, attitudes and practices on breast cancer in the study population. In particular, knowledge on breast self examination was poor. There is a need for awareness programs aimed specifically at this important target group. © 2013 Ranasinghe et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Cinnamomum zeylanicum (Ceylon cinnamon) as a potential pharmaceutical agent for type-2 diabetes mellitus: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Abstract Background Previous studies have explored the anti-diabetic effects of Cinnamomum cassia extract in vivo and in vitro. However, there are no studies at present exploring the effects of the indigenous species of Sri Lankan cinnamon (Cinnamomum zeylanicum) in patients with diabetes mellitus. The present study aims to evaluate the potential effects of Cinnamomum zeylanicum extract as a pharmaceutical agent in patients with type-2 diabetes mellitus. Methods/design The study will be conducted as a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial for a period of 4 months at the Medical Clinic, University Medical Unit, National Hospital of Sri Lanka. A total of 210 subjects with diabetes, in three equal groups, will be recruited for the study. The patients will be randomized in a 1:1:1 ratio according to the method of block randomization and the subjects will be randomly and equally assigned into two test groups (n = 70 each) and one placebo group (n = 70). The population will be stratified at randomization based on age, gender and disease severity. The treatment drug is a capsule containing Cinnamomum zeylanicum extract as the active ingredient and the placebo capsule will contain lactose monohydrate. Two doses of Cinnamomum zeylanicum extracts (250 mg and 500 mg of the cinnamon extract) will be used. The study drugs will be double blinded to both investigators and participants. The visits and the evaluations will be done as follows: screening (visit 0), 1 month (visit 1), 2 months (visit 2), 3 months (visit 3) and 4 months (visit 4). The following primary outcome measures will be evaluated: glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and serum insulin. Secondary outcome measures include: Body Mass Index (BMI) and other anthropometric parameters, blood pressure, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) and triglycerides (TAG). Data will be analyzed using SPSS version 14. Discussion We describe the protocol for a clinical trial design evaluating the effects of Cinnamomum zeylanicum (Ceylon cinnamon) in patients with type-2 diabetes mellitus. The result of the present study, positive or negative, should provide a step change in the evidence guiding current and future policies regarding the use of cinnamon dietary supplementation in patients with diabetes. Trial registration Sri Lanka Clinical Trials Registry (SLCTR), identifier: SLCTR/2017/010 ( http://slctr.lk/trials/714 ). Registered on 5 April 2017; study protocol version 3.1 21 March 2017

Can machine learning complement traditional medical device surveillance? A case-study of dual-chamber implantable cardioverter–defibrillators

Joseph S Ross,1–4 Jonathan Bates,4 Craig S Parzynski,4 Joseph G Akar,4,5 Jeptha P Curtis,4,5 Nihar R Desai,4,5 James V Freeman,4,5 Ginger M Gamble,4 Richard Kuntz,6 Shu-Xia Li,4 Danica Marinac-Dabic,7 Frederick A Masoudi,8 Sharon-Lise T Normand,9,10 Isuru Ranasinghe,11 Richard E Shaw,12 Harlan M Krumholz2–5 1Section of General Medicine, Department of Medicine, 2Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Clinical Scholars Program, Yale School of Medicine, 3Department of Health Policy and Management, Yale School of Public Health, 4Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, Yale–New Haven Hospital, 5Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, 6Medtronic Inc, Minneapolis, MN, 7Division of Epidemiology, Center for Devices and Radiological Health, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD, 8Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, University of Colorado, Aurora, CO, 9Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, 10Department of Biostatistics, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; 11Discipline of Medicine, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 12Department of Clinical Informatics, California Pacific Medical Center, San Francisco, CA, USA Background: Machine learning methods may complement traditional analytic methods for medical device surveillance.Methods and results: Using data from the National Cardiovascular Data Registry for implantable cardioverter–defibrillators (ICDs) linked to Medicare administrative claims for longitudinal follow-up, we applied three statistical approaches to safety-signal detection for commonly used dual-chamber ICDs that used two propensity score (PS) models: one specified by subject-matter experts (PS-SME), and the other one by machine learning-based selection (PS-ML). The first approach used PS-SME and cumulative incidence (time-to-event), the second approach used PS-SME and cumulative risk (Data Extraction and Longitudinal Trend Analysis [DELTA]), and the third approach used PS-ML and cumulative risk (embedded feature selection). Safety-signal surveillance was conducted for eleven dual-chamber ICD models implanted at least 2,000 times over 3 years. Between 2006 and 2010, there were 71,948 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries who received dual-chamber ICDs. Cumulative device-specific unadjusted 3-year event rates varied for three surveyed safety signals: death from any cause, 12.8%–20.9%; nonfatal ICD-related adverse events, 19.3%–26.3%; and death from any cause or nonfatal ICD-related adverse event, 27.1%–37.6%. Agreement among safety signals detected/not detected between the time-to-event and DELTA approaches was 90.9% (360 of 396, k=0.068), between the time-to-event and embedded feature-selection approaches was 91.7% (363 of 396, k=–0.028), and between the DELTA and embedded feature selection approaches was 88.1% (349 of 396, k=–0.042).Conclusion: Three statistical approaches, including one machine learning method, identified important safety signals, but without exact agreement. Ensemble methods may be needed to detect all safety signals for further evaluation during medical device surveillance. Keywords: implanted cardioverter–defibrillator, methodology, surveillanc