Forecasting substantial data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty

A recent revision to the preliminary measurement of GDP(E) growth for 2003Q2 caused considerable press attention, provoked a public enquiry and prompted a number of reforms to UK statistical reporting procedures. In this article, we compute the probability of 'substantial revisions' that are greater (in absolute value) than the controversial 2003 revision. The predictive densities are derived from Bayesian model averaging over a wide set of forecasting models including linear, structural break and regime-switching models with and without heteroscedasticity. Ignoring the nonlinearities and model uncertainty yields misleading predictives and obscures recent improvements in the quality of preliminary UK macroeconomic measurements

Association between the mood stabilizing treatment of bipolar disorder and risk of suicide attempts: A self-controlled case series study

Bipolar disorder (BPD) is associated with high rates of suicide attempts but the anti-suicidal effect of mood stabilizing agents remains unclear. This study aimed to examine the association between mood stabilizing agents (lithium, valproate, lamotrigine, carbamazepine or antipsychotics) and risk of suicide attempts in patients with BPD using self-controlled case series study design. Among 14,087 patients with BPD who received mood stabilizing agents from 2001 to 2020 in Hong Kong, 1316 patients had at least one suicide attempts during the observation period. An increased risk of suicide attempts was observed 14 days before treatment initiation compared to non-exposed period. Following treatment initiation, an increased risk with smaller magnitude was found with the use of mood stabilizing agents. A lower risk was observed with lithium and antiepileptics while the risk remained attenuated with decreasing magnitude with antipsychotics. During 30-day post-treatment period, the risk was elevated. Therefore, this study suggests that use of mood stabilizing agents is not causally associated with an increased risk of suicide attempts. Indeed, there are potential protective effects of lithium and antiepileptics against suicide attempts. Assiduous monitoring of symptoms relapse and warning signs of suicide should be part of the management plan and discussed between clinicians, caregivers and patients

Moisture transport by Atlantic tropical cyclones onto the North American continent

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are an important source of freshwater for the North American continent. Many studies have tried to estimate this contribution by identifying TC-induced precipitation events, but few have explicitly diagnosed the moisture fluxes across continental boundaries. We design a set of attribution schemes to isolate the column-integrated moisture fluxes that are directly associated with TCs and to quantify the flux onto the North American Continent due to TCs. Averaged over the 2004–2012 hurricane seasons and integrated over the western, southern and eastern coasts of North America, the seven schemes attribute 7 to 18 % (mean 14 %) of total net onshore flux to Atlantic TCs. A reduced contribution of 10 % (range 9 to 11 %) was found for the 1980–2003 period, though only two schemes could be applied to this earlier period. Over the whole 1980–2012 period, a further 8 % (range 6 to 9 % from two schemes) was attributed to East Pacific TCs, resulting in a total TC contribution of 19 % (range 17 to 22 %) to the ocean-to-land moisture transport onto the North American continent between May and November. Analysis of the attribution uncertainties suggests that incorporating details of individual TC size and shape adds limited value to a fixed radius approach and TC positional errors in the ERA-Interim reanalysis do not affect the results significantly, but biases in peak wind speeds and TC sizes may lead to underestimates of moisture transport. The interannual variability does not appear to be strongly related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon

Internal Wave Turbulence Near a Texel Beach

A summer bather entering a calm sea from the beach may sense alternating warm and cold water. This can be felt when moving forward into the sea (‘vertically homogeneous’ and ‘horizontally different’), but also when standing still between one’s feet and body (‘vertically different’). On a calm summer-day, an array of high-precision sensors has measured fast temperature-changes up to 1°C near a Texel-island (NL) beach. The measurements show that sensed variations are in fact internal waves, fronts and turbulence, supported in part by vertical stable stratification in density (temperature). Such motions are common in the deep ocean, but generally not in shallow seas where turbulent mixing is expected strong enough to homogenize. The internal beach-waves have amplitudes ten-times larger than those of the small surface wind waves. Quantifying their turbulent mixing gives diffusivity estimates of 10−4–10−3 m2 s−1, which are larger than found in open-ocean but smaller than wave breaking above deep sloping topography

Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact

Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator

A Cross-Sectional Study of Barriers to Personal Health Record Use among Patients Attending a Safety-Net Clinic

BACKGROUND: Personal health records (PHR) may improve patients' health by providing access to and context for health information. Among patients receiving care at a safety-net HIV/AIDS clinic, we examined the hypothesis that a mental health (MH) or substance use (SU) condition represents a barrier to engagement with web-based health information, as measured by consent to participate in a trial that provided access to personal (PHR) or general (non-PHR) health information portals and by completion of baseline study surveys posted there. METHODS: Participants were individually trained to access and navigate individualized online accounts and to complete study surveys. In response to need, during accrual months 4 to 12 we enhanced participant training to encourage survey completion with the help of staff. Using logistic regression models, we estimated odds ratios for study participation and for survey completion by combined MH/SU status, adjusted for levels of computer competency, on-study training, and demographics. RESULTS: Among 2,871 clinic patients, 70% had MH/SU conditions, with depression (38%) and methamphetamine use (17%) most commonly documented. Middle-aged patients and those with a MH/SU condition were over-represented among study participants (N = 338). Survey completion was statistically independent of MH/SU status (OR, 1.85 [95% CI, 0.93-3.66]) but tended to be higher among those with MH/SU conditions. Completion rates were low among beginner computer users, regardless of training level (<50%), but adequate among advanced users (>70%). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients attending a safety-net clinic, MH/SU conditions were not barriers to engagement with web-based health information. Instead, level of computer competency was useful for identifying individuals requiring substantial computer training in order to fully participate in the study. Intensive on-study training was insufficient to enable beginner computer users to complete study surveys

Definition of a temporal distribution index for high temporal resolution precipitation data over Peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands: the fractal dimension; and its synoptic implications

Precipitation on the Spanish mainland and in the Balearic archipelago exhibits a high degree of spatial and temporal variability, regardless of the temporal resolution of the data considered. The fractal dimension indicates the property of self-similarity, and in the case of this study, wherein it is applied to the temporal behaviour of rainfall at a fine (10-min) resolution from a total of 48 observatories, it provides insights into its more or less convective nature. The methodology of Jenkinson & Collison which automatically classifies synoptic situations at the surface, as well as an adaptation of this methodology at 500 hPa, was applied in order to gain insights into the synoptic implications of extreme values of the fractal dimension. The highest fractal dimension values in the study area were observed in places with precipitation that has a more random behaviour over time with generally high totals. Four different regions in which the atmospheric mechanisms giving rise to precipitation at the surface differ from the corresponding above-ground mechanisms have been identified in the study area based on the fractal dimension. In the north of the Iberian Peninsula, high fractal dimension values are linked to a lower frequency of anticyclonic situations, whereas the opposite occurs in the central region. In the Mediterranean, higher fractal dimension values are associated with a higher frequency of the anticyclonic type and a lower frequency of the advective type from the east. In the south, lower fractal dimension values indicate higher frequency with respect to the anticyclonic type from the east and lower frequency with respect to the cyclonic type

Diet during pregnancy and infancy, and risk of allergic or autoimmune disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: There is uncertainty about the influence of diet during pregnancy and infancy on a child’s immune development. We assessed whether variations in maternal or infant diet can influence risk of allergic or autoimmune disease. Methods and findings: Two authors selected studies, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) was used to assess certainty of findings. We searched Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (MEDLINE), Excerpta Medica dataBASE (EMBASE), Web of Science, Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and Literatura Latino Americana em Ciências da Saúde (LILACS) between January 1946 and July 2013 for observational studies and until December 2017 for intervention studies that evaluated the relationship between diet during pregnancy, lactation, or the first year of life and future risk of allergic or autoimmune disease. We identified 260 original studies (964,143 participants) of milk feeding, including 1 intervention trial of breastfeeding promotion, and 173 original studies (542,672 participants) of other maternal or infant dietary exposures, including 80 trials of maternal (n = 26), infant (n = 32), or combined (n = 22) interventions. Risk of bias was high in 125 (48%) milk feeding studies and 44 (25%) studies of other dietary exposures. Evidence from 19 intervention trials suggests that oral supplementation with nonpathogenic micro-organisms (probiotics) during late pregnancy and lactation may reduce risk of eczema (Risk Ratio [RR] 0.78; 95% CI 0.68–0.90; I2 = 61%; Absolute Risk Reduction 44 cases per 1,000; 95% CI 20–64), and 6 trials suggest that fish oil supplementation during pregnancy and lactation may reduce risk of allergic sensitisation to egg (RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.53–0.90; I2 = 15%; Absolute Risk Reduction 31 cases per 1,000; 95% CI 10–47). GRADE certainty of these findings was moderate. We found weaker support for the hypotheses that breastfeeding promotion reduces risk of eczema during infancy (1 intervention trial), that longer exclusive breastfeeding is associated with reduced type 1 diabetes mellitus (28 observational studies), and that probiotics reduce risk of allergic sensitisation to cow’s milk (9 intervention trials), where GRADE certainty of findings was low. We did not find that other dietary exposures—including prebiotic supplements, maternal allergenic food avoidance, and vitamin, mineral, fruit, and vegetable intake—influence risk of allergic or autoimmune disease. For many dietary exposures, data were inconclusive or inconsistent, such that we were unable to exclude the possibility of important beneficial or harmful effects. In this comprehensive systematic review, we were not able to include more recent observational studies or verify data via direct contact with authors, and we did not evaluate measures of food diversity during infancy. Conclusions: Our findings support a relationship between maternal diet and risk of immune-mediated diseases in the child. Maternal probiotic and fish oil supplementation may reduce risk of eczema and allergic sensitisation to food, respectively

White matter hyperintensities in vascular contributions to cognitive impairment and dementia (VCID): Knowledge gaps and opportunities

White matter hyperintensities (WMHs) are frequently seen on brain magnetic resonance imaging scans of older people. Usually interpreted clinically as a surrogate for cerebral small vessel disease, WMHs are associated with increased likelihood of cognitive impairment and dementia (including Alzheimer's disease [AD]). WMHs are also seen in cognitively healthy people. In this collaboration of academic, clinical, and pharmaceutical industry perspectives, we identify outstanding questions about WMHs and their relation to cognition, dementia, and AD. What molecular and cellular changes underlie WMHs? What are the neuropathological correlates of WMHs? To what extent are demyelination and inflammation present? Is it helpful to subdivide into periventricular and subcortical WMHs? What do WMHs signify in people diagnosed with AD? What are the risk factors for developing WMHs? What preventive and therapeutic strategies target WMHs? Answering these questions will improve prevention and treatment of WMHs and dementia

Selection of reliable biomarkers from PCR array analyses using relative distance computational model: Methodology and proof-of-concept study

10.1371/journal.pone.0083954PLoS ONE812-POLN