A Bayesian palaeoenvironmental transfer function model for acidified lakes

A Bayesian approach to palaeoecological environmental reconstruction deriving from the unimodal responses generally exhibited by organisms to an environmental gradient is described. The approach uses Bayesian model selection to calculate a collection of probability-weighted, species-specific response curves (SRCs) for each taxon within a training set, with an explicit treatment for zero abundances. These SRCs are used to reconstruct the environmental variable from sub-fossilised assemblages. The approach enables a substantial increase in computational efficiency (several orders of magnitude) over existing Bayesian methodologies. The model is developed from the Surface Water Acidification Programme (SWAP) training set and is demonstrated to exhibit comparable predictive power to existing Weighted Averaging and Maximum Likelihood methodologies, though with improvements in bias; the additional explanatory power of the Bayesian approach lies in an explicit calculation of uncertainty for each individual reconstruction. The model is applied to reconstruct the Holocene acidification history of the Round Loch of Glenhead, including a reconstruction of recent recovery derived from sediment trap data.The Bayesian reconstructions display similar trends to conventional (Weighted Averaging Partial Least Squares) reconstructions but provide a better reconstruction of extreme pH and are more sensitive to small changes in diatom assemblages. The validity of the posteriors as an apparently meaningful representation of assemblage-specific uncertainty and the high computational efficiency of the approach open up the possibility of highly constrained multiproxy reconstructions

High resolution Lateglacial and early-Holocene summer air temperature records from Scotland inferred from chironomid assemblages

Lateglacial and early-Holocene mean July air temperatures have been reconstructed, using a chironomid-based inference model, from lake-sediment sequences from Abernethy Forest, in the eastern Highlands of Scotland, and Loch Ashik, on the Isle of Skye in north-west Scotland. Chronology for Abernethy Forest was derived from radiocarbon dates of terrestrial plant macrofossils deposited in the lake sediments. Chronology for Loch Ashik was derived from tephra layers of known ages, the first age-depth model of this kind. Chironomid-inferred temperatures peak early in the Lateglacial Interstadial and then gradually decline by about 1 °C to the beginning of the Younger Dryas (YD). At Abernethy Forest, the Lateglacial Interstadial is punctuated by three centennial-scale cold oscillations which appear to be synchronous with the Greenland Interstadial events GI-1d, when temperatures at Abernethy fell by 5.9 °C, GI-1c, when temperatures fell by 2.3 °C, and GI-1b, when temperatures fell by 2.8 °C. At Loch Ashik only the oscillation correlated with GI-1d is clearly defined, when temperatures fell by 3.8 °C. The start of the YD is clearly marked at both sites when temperatures fell by 5.5 °C at Abernethy Forest and 2.8 °C at Loch Ashik. A warming trend is apparent during the late-YD at Abernethy Forest but at Loch Ashik late-YD temperatures became very cold, possibly influenced by its close proximity to the Skye ice-field. The rapidly rising temperatures at the YD – Holocene transition occur about 300 years earlier at both sites than changes in sediment lithology and loss-on-ignition. The temperature trends at both sites are broadly similar, although between-site differences may result from the influence of local factors. Similar climate trends are found at other sites in the northern British Isles. However, the British summer temperature records differ in detail from trends in the oxygen-isotope records from the Greenland ice-cores and from other chironomid-inferred temperature records available from Scandinavia, north-west Europe and central Europe, which suggest important differences in the influence of climatic forcing at regional scales

Biases in the estimation of transfer function prediction errors

In the quest for more precise sea-surface temperature reconstructions from microfossil assemblages, large modern training sets and new transfer function methods have been developed. Realistic estimates of the predictive power of a transfer function can only be calculated from an independent test set. If the test set is not fully independent, the error estimate will be artificially low. We show that the modern analogue technique using a similarity index (SIMMAX) and the revised analogue method ( RAM), both derived from the modern analogue technique, achieve apparently lower root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) by failing to ensure statistical independence of samples during cross validation. We also show that when cross validation is used to select the best artificial neural network or modern analogue model, the RMSEP based on cross validation is lower than that for a fully independent test set

Holocene lake sediment core sequences from Lochnagar, Cairngorm Mts., Scotland - UK final report for CHILL-10,000

The CHILL 10,000 research objective at Lochnagar is to examine proxy data for temperature and climate conditions. Changes in lake sediment stratigraphical data can be used to reconstruct past conditions. These proxies include organic and minerogenic matter as a bulk proxy for catchment and within-lake productivity, chironomids as a proxy for air temperature, diatoms as an indicator for lake water pH, pollen as an indicator of catchment vegetation and finally biomarkers to help determine changes in proportions of organic source material within the lake mud

Determining the Environmental Factors Underlying the Spatial Variability of Insect Appearance Phenology for the Honey Bee, Apis mellifera, and the Small White, Pieris rapae

The spatial patterns of the variability of the appearance dates of the honey bee Apis mellifera L. (Hymenoptera: Apidea) and the small white Pieris rapae (L.) (Lepidoptera: Pieridae) were investigated in Spain. A database of more than 7,000 records of the dates of the first spring sightings of each species in more than 700 localities from 1952–2004 was used. Phenological data were related to spatial, topographical, climate, land use, and vegetation productivity explanatory variables by means of multiple regression models in order to search for the environmental mechanisms underlying the observable phenological variability. Temperature and altitudinal spatial gradients accounted for most of the spatial variability in the phenology of the studied species, while vegetation productivity and land use had low relevance. In both species, the first individuals were recorded at those sites with warmer springs and dry summers, at low altitudes, and not covered with dry farming (i.e., cereal crops). The identity and magnitude of the effect of the variables were almost identical for both species and closely mirrored spatial temperature gradients. The best explanatory models accounted for up to half of the variability of appearance dates. Residuals did not show a spatial autocorrelation, meaning that no other spatially structured variable at our working resolution could have improved the results. Differences in the spatial patterns of phenology with regard to other taxa, such as arrival dates of migratory birds, suggest that spatial constraints may play an essential role in the phenological matching between trophic levels

Intraregional variability in chironomid-inferred temperature estimates and the influence of river inundations on lacustrine chironomid assemblages.

Floodplain lakes are rarely analysed for fossil chironomids and usually not incorporated in modern chironomid-climate calibration datasets because of the potential complex hydrological processes that could result from flooding of the lakes. In order to investigate this potential influence of river inundations on fossil chironomid assemblages, 13 regularly inundated lakes and 20 lakes isolated from riverine influence were sampled and their surface sediments analysed for subfossil chironomid assemblages. The physical and chemical settings of all lakes were similar, although the variation in the environmental variables was higher in the lakes isolated from riverine influence. Chironomid concentration and taxon richness show significant differences between the two classes of lakes, and the variation in these variables is best explained by loss-on-ignition of the sediments (LOI). Relative chironomid abundances show some differences between the two groups of lakes, with several chironomid taxa occurring preferentially in one of the two lake-types. The variability in chironomid assemblages is also best explained by LOI. Application of a chironomid-temperature inference model shows that both types of lakes reconstruct July air temperatures that are equal to, or slightly underestimating, the measured temperature of the region. We conclude that, although there are some differences between the chironomid assemblages of floodplain lakes and of isolated lakes, these differences do not have a major effect on chironomid-based temperature reconstruction. © 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V

Tree migration-rates : narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates

Faster-than-expected post-glacial migration rates of trees have puzzled ecologists for a long time. In Europe, post-glacial migration is assumed to have started from the three southern European peninsulas (southern refugia), where large areas remained free of permafrost and ice at the peak of the last glaciation. However, increasing palaeobotanical evidence for the presence of isolated tree populations in more northerly microrefugia has started to change this perception. Here we use the Northern Eurasian Plant Macrofossil Database and palaeoecological literature to show that post-glacial migration rates for trees may have been substantially lower (60–260 m yr–1) than those estimated by assuming migration from southern refugia only (115–550 m yr–1), and that early-successional trees migrated faster than mid- and late-successional trees. Post-glacial migration rates are in good agreement with those recently projected for the future with a population dynamical forest succession and dispersal model, mainly for early-successional trees and under optimal conditions. Although migration estimates presented here may be conservative because of our assumption of uniform dispersal, tree migration-rates clearly need reconsideration. We suggest that small outlier populations may be a key factor in understanding past migration rates and in predicting potential future range-shifts. The importance of outlier populations in the past may have an analogy in the future, as many tree species have been planted beyond their natural ranges, with a more beneficial microclimate than their regional surroundings. Therefore, climate-change-induced range-shifts in the future might well be influenced by such microrefugia

Is Neolithic land use correlated with demography? An evaluation of pollen-derived land cover and radiocarbon-inferred demographic change from Central Europe

The transformation of natural landscapes in Middle Europe began in the Neolithic as a result of the introduction of food-producing economies. This paper examines the relation between land-cover and demographic change in a regionally restricted case study. The study area is the Western Lake Constance area which has very detailed palynological as well as archaeological records. We compare land-cover change derived from nine pollen records using a pseudo-biomisation approach with 14C date probability density functions from archaeological sites which serve as a demographic proxy. We chose the Lake Constance area as a regional example where the pollen signal integrates a larger spatial pattern. The land-cover reconstructions for this region show first notable impacts at the Middle to Young Neolithic transition. The beginning of the Bronze Age is characterised by increases of arable land and pasture/meadow, whereas the deciduous woodland decreases dramatically. Changes in the land-cover classes show a correlation with the 14C density curve: the correlation is best with secondary woodland in the Young Neolithic which reflects the lake shore settlement dynamics. In the Early Bronze Age, the radiocarbon density correlates with open land-cover classes, such as pasture, meadow and arable land, reflecting a change in the land-use strategy. The close overall correspondence between the two archives implies that population dynamics and land-cover change were intrinsically linked. We therefore see human impact as a key driver for vegetation change in the Neolithic. Climate might have an influence on vegetation development, but the changes caused by human land use are clearly detectable from Neolithic times, at least in these densely settled, mid-altitude landscapes

Chironomid-based palaeotemperature estimates for northeast Finland during Oxygen Isotope Stage 3.

Quantitative palaeotemperature estimates for the earlier part of Oxygen Isotope Stage (OIS-) 3 are inferred from subfossil chironomid remains. The high-latitudinal study site of Sokli, northeast Finland, provides for a unique lacustrine deposit covering the earlier part of OIS-3, and the chironomid remains found in the sediments show that a shallow lake with a diverse fauna was present at the study site throughout the record. Using a Norwegian calibration data set as a modern analogue, mean July air temperatures are reconstructed. The chironomid-inferred July air temperatures are surprisingly high, reaching values similar to the current temperature at the study site. Other proxies that were applied to the sediments included the analysis of botanical and zoological macro-remains, and our results concur with temperature estimates derived from climate indicator taxa. Summer temperatures for interstadial conditions, reconstructed with climate models, are as high as our proxy-based palaeotemperatures

The Surface Waters Acidification Project Palaeolimnology Programme: modern diatom/lake-water chemistry data-set

In 1983, when the Surface Waters Acidification Programme (SWAP) was announced, we were asked to design and implement a palaeolimnology sub-project involving scientists from Sweden, Norway, and the UK. Our aim was to reconstruct the acidification history of a range of sites in the three countries and to identify and evaluate the various alternative causes of lake acidification. The results of the project have been published recently (Battarbee et al. 1990, Renberg and Battarbee 1990). Although a comprehensive range of palaeolimnological methods and approaches was used in the study we recognised diatom analysis as central to the entire project. We consequently committed considerable effort to improving our diatom methodology and we were especially concerned with the pursuit of a common approach to diatom taxonomy and pH reconstruction. This effort centred on the creation and analysis of a large data-set of surface-sediment diatom assemblages and associated environmental variables from 170 sites representing the full range of lake types in the acid-sensitive and acidified regions of the three countries