15 research outputs found

    Model-based geostatistical mapping of the prevalence of onchocerca volvulus in West Africa.

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    Background: The initial endemicity (pre-control prevalence) of onchocerciasis has been shown to be an important determinant of the feasibility of elimination by mass ivermectin distribution. We present the first geostatistical map of microfilarial prevalence in the former Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) before commencement of antivectorial and antiparasitic interventions. Methods and Findings: Pre-control microfilarial prevalence data from 737 villages across the 11 constituent countries in the OCP epidemiological database were used as ground-truth data. These 737 data points, plus a set of statistically selected environmental covariates, were used in a Bayesian model-based geostatistical (B-MBG) approach to generate a continuous surface (at pixel resolution of 5 km x 5km) of microfilarial prevalence in West Africa prior to the commencement of the OCP. Uncertainty in model predictions was measured using a suite of validation statistics, performed on bootstrap samples of held-out validation data. The mean Pearson’s correlation between observed and estimated prevalence at validation locations was 0.693; the mean prediction error (average difference between observed and estimated values) was 0.77%, and the mean absolute prediction error (average magnitude of difference between observed and estimated values) was 12.2%. Within OCP boundaries, 17.8 million people were deemed to have been at risk, 7.55 million to have been infected, and mean microfilarial prevalence to have been 45% (range: 2–90%) in 1975. Conclusions and Significance: This is the first map of initial onchocerciasis prevalence in West Africa using B-MBG. Important environmental predictors of infection prevalence were identified and used in a model out-performing those without spatial random effects or environmental covariates. Results may be compared with recent epidemiological mapping efforts to find areas of persisting transmission. These methods may be extended to areas where data are sparse, and may be used to help inform the feasibility of elimination with current and novel tools

    Human Onchocerciasis:Modelling the Potential Long-term Consequences of a Vaccination Programme

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    <div><p>Background</p><p>Currently, the predominant onchocerciasis control strategy in Africa is annual mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. However, there is a consensus among the global health community, supported by mathematical modelling, that onchocerciasis in Africa will not be eliminated within proposed time frameworks in all endemic foci with only annual MDA, and novel and alternative strategies are urgently needed. Furthermore, use of MDA with ivermectin is already compromised in large areas of central Africa co-endemic with <i>Loa loa</i>, and there are areas where suboptimal or atypical responses to ivermectin have been documented. An onchocerciasis vaccine would be highly advantageous in these areas.</p><p>Methodology/Principal Findings</p><p>We used a previously developed onchocerciasis transmission model (EPIONCHO) to investigate the impact of vaccination in areas where loiasis and onchocerciasis are co-endemic and ivermectin is contraindicated. We also explore the potential influence of a vaccination programme on infection resurgence in areas where local elimination has been successfully achieved. Based on the age range included in the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI), the vaccine was assumed to target 1 to 5 year olds. Our modelling results indicate that the deployment of an onchocerciasis vaccine would have a beneficial impact in onchocerciasis–loiasis co-endemic areas, markedly reducing microfilarial load in the young (under 20 yr) age groups.</p><p>Conclusions/Significance</p><p>An onchocerciasis prophylactic vaccine would reduce the onchocerciasis disease burden in populations where ivermectin cannot be administered safely. Moreover, a vaccine could substantially decrease the chance of re-emergence of <i>Onchocerca volvulus</i> infection in areas where it is deemed that MDA with ivermectin can be stopped. Therefore, a vaccine would protect the substantial investments made by present and past onchocerciasis control programmes, decreasing the chance of disease recrudescence and offering an important additional tool to mitigate the potentially devastating impact of emerging ivermectin resistance.</p></div

    Validation of the rapid assessment procedure for loiasis (RAPLOA) in the democratic republic of CongoS

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    Background: A simple method called RAPLOA, to rapidly assess what proportion of people in a community are infected with L. loa and hence which communities are at high risk of severe adverse reactions following ivermectin treatment, was developed in Cameroon and Nigeria. The method needed further validation in other geographical and cultural contexts before its application in all endemic countries. The present study was designed to validate RAPLOA in two regions in the North East and South West of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Methods: In each study region, villages were selected from different bio-ecological zones in order to cover a wide range of loiasis endemicity. In each selected community, 80 people above the age of 15 years were interviewed for a history of eye worm (migration of adult L. loa under the conjunctiva of the eye) and parasitologically examined for the presence and intensity of L. loa infection. In total, 8100 individuals from 99 villages were enrolled into the study. Results: The results confirmed the findings of the original RAPLOA study: i) the eye worm phenomenon was well-known in all endemic areas, ii) there was a clear relationship between the prevalence of eye worm history and the prevalence and intensity of L. loa microfilaraemia, and iii) using a threshold of 40%, the prevalence of eye worm history was a sensitive and specific indicator of high-risk communities. Conclusion: Following this successful validation, RAPLOA was recommended for the assessment of loiasis endemicity in areas targeted for ivermectin treatment by lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis control programmes
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