Prognosis of Lung Cancer Mortality in West Germany: A Case Study in Bayesian Prediction. (REVISED, January 2000)

We apply a generalized Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) model to a dataset on lung cancer mortality in West Germany, 1952-1996. Our goal is to predict future deaths rates until the year 2010, separately for males and females. Since age and period is not measured on the same grid, we propose a generalized APC-model where consecutive cohort parameters represent strongly overlapping birth cohorts. This approach results in a rather large number of parameters, where standard algorithms for statistical inference by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods turn out to be computationally intensive. We propose a more efficient implementation based on ideas of block sampling from the time series literature. We entertain two different formulations, penalizing either first or second differences of age, period and cohort parameters. To assess the predictive quality of both formulations, we first forecast the rates for the period 1987-1996 based on data until 1986. A comparison with the actual observed rates is made based on quantities related to the predictive deviance. Predictions of lung cancer mortality until 2010 both for males and females are finally reported

Comparing pertinent effects of antiferromagnetic fluctuations in the two and three dimensional Hubbard model

We use the dynamical vertex approximation (D$\Gamma$A) with a Moriyaesque $\lambda$ correction for studying the impact of antiferromagnetic fluctuations on the spectral function of the Hubbard model in two and three dimensions. Our results show the suppression of the quasiparticle weight in three dimensions and dramatically stronger impact of spin fluctuations in two dimensions where the pseudogap is formed at low enough temperatures. Even in the presence of the Hubbard subbands, the origin of the pseudogap at weak-to-intermediate coupling is in the splitting of the quasiparticle peak. At stronger coupling (closer to the insulating phase) the splitting of Hubbard subbands is expected instead. The $\mathbf{k}$-dependence of the self energy appears to be also much more pronounced in two dimensions as can be observed in the $\mathbf{k}$-resolved D$\Gamma$A spectra, experimentally accessible by angular resolved photoemission spectroscopy in layered correlated systems.Comment: 10 pages, 12 figure

Projective Quantum Monte Carlo Method for the Anderson Impurity Model and its Application to Dynamical Mean Field Theory

We develop a projective quantum Monte Carlo algorithm of the Hirsch-Fye type for obtaining ground state properties of the Anderson impurity model. This method is employed to solve the self-consistency equations of dynamical mean field theory. It is shown that the approach converges rapidly to the ground state so that reliable zero-temperature results are obtained. As a first application, we study the Mott-Hubbard metal-insulator transition of the one-band Hubbard model, reconfirming the numerical renormalization group results.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

A continuous population of variable stars up to about 1.5 mag above the horizontal branch?

Increasing samples of pulsating variable stars populating the classical instability strip from the horizontal branch to a few magnitudes brighter are being found in several Local Group galaxies, irrespective of the galaxy morphological type. We will review the observational scenario focusing in particular on the Anomalous Cepheids and related objects.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, invited review in JENAM 2003, "Minisymposium: Asteroseismology and Stellar Evolution", Communications in Asteroseismology, in pres