Adjusting to Trade Opening: The Case of Labor Share in India\u27s Manufacturing Industry

The objective of this paper is to study how manufacturing plants in India adjusted to trade liberalization during the period 1998–99 to 2007–08. We estimate how the labor share changed due to tariff reduction. Our results indicate that a decline in output tariffs led to an increase in the labor share of income. In contrast, a fall in input tariffs led to a decrease in the labor share. Controlling for factor intensity, we find that in technology intensive and human capital resource intensive sectors, both a decline in input and output tariff rates led to a decline in labor share. A fall in tariffs only led to an increase in labor share for labor intensive and low-technology plants. Hence, India’s bias towards capital and technology intensive production explains the overall decline in labor share in the post reform period. Furthermore, the empirical results show that labor adjustment occurred more efficiently in Indian states with flexible labor laws

Heterogeneous quality firms and trade costs

There is increasing empirical evidence that vertical product differentiation is an important determinant of international trade. However, the economic literature so far has solely focused on the case in which quality trade stems from differences between countries. No studies investigate the role of quality trade between similar economies. This paper first develops a simple theoretical trade model that includes vertical product differentiation in a heterogeneous-firm framework. The model yields three main predictions for trade between similar economies. First, exported goods are of higher quality than goods sold on the domestic market. Second, larger economies have on average higher export qualities compared with smaller economies. Third, with increasing trade costs higher quality goods are exchanged. For all three effects, strong empirical support is found using detailed export trade data of the United States and 15 European Union countries.Economic Theory&Research,Markets and Market Access,Common Carriers Industry,Free Trade,Transport and Trade Logistics

Heterogeneous Quality Firms and Trade Costs

There is increasing empirical evidence that vertical product differentiation is an important determinant of international trade. However, the economic literature so far has solely focused on the case in which quality trade stems from differences between countries. No studies investigate the role of quality trade between similar economies. This paper first develops a simple theoretical trade model that includes vertical product differentiation in a heterogeneous-firm framework. The model yields three main predictions for trade between similar economies. First, exported goods are of higher quality than goods sold on the domestic market. Second, larger economies have on average higher export qualities compared with smaller economies. Third, with increasing trade costs higher quality goods are exchanged. For all three effects, strong empirical support is found using detailed export trade data of the United States and 15 European Union countries.Trade Costs, Quality, Vertical Product Differentiation.

Booms and booze: on the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and alcohol consumption.

This paper investigates the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and alcohol consumption using country-level data from 159 countries between 1961 and 2004. We use the change in per capita alcohol consumption as the main dependent variable and the growth of per capita gross domestic product as main independent variable. Overall, we find a robust procyclical relationship. Furthermore, our results suggest that whereas high-, middle-, and low-middle income countries show a clear procyclical trend, drinking behavior in low-income countries remains largely unchanged following macroeconomic shocks. Studying different alcoholic beverages, our results indicate that the consumption of spirits is most sensitive to economic swings, whereas the consumption of wine and beer is less elastic.

Salvaging the Trans-Pacific Partnership: building blocks for regional and multilateral trade opening?

The high hopes that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) would open up trade across the Pacific were dashed by the decision of the new US Government under President Trump to withdraw from the agreement in January 2017. Despite being controversial, the TPP had been recognized as an agreement that substantially updated and extended international trade rules responding to new technological developments and economic realities. It was thus lauded by some as the first true 21st century trade agreement. The United States' withdrawal from TPP gives the agreement an uncertain future. Yet, we argue in this paper that some achievements of the TPP might not be lost. The TPP offers important lessons for other ambitious regional trade deals both in terms of process and content. Furthermore, several chapters of the TPP can become blueprints for ongoing and upcoming negotiations at the multilateral level. A one-to-one transposition of TPP provisions into the multilateral trade agreement is unlikely, yet certain provisions could serve as valuable aspiration for future multilateral trade talks

Border Effect Estimates for France and Germany Combining International Trade and Intranational Transport Flows

Since the seminal contribution of McCallum (1995) economists have tried to estimate the border effect for other countries than the United States and Canada, but have been confronted with a key data problem: data on regional trade flows are extremely rare. The different approaches put forward to overcome this lack of information have been shown to hinge crucially on certain distance measures. The main purpose of this paper is to develop a method that allows us determining border effects with a high degree of accuracy in the absence of intra-national trade data. We show how to improve the estimation of border effects with the example of France and Germany using data on regional transportation flows. Our results indicate that France trades about eight times more and Germany about three times more with itself than with other EU countries, respectively, compared to the predictions of the gravity equatio

Transparency, trade costs, and regional integration in the Asia Pacific

The authors show in this paper that increasing the transparency of the trading environment can be an important complement to traditional liberalization of tariff and non-tariff barriers. Our definition of transparency is grounded in a transaction cost analysis. The authors focus on two dimensions of transparency: predictability (reducing the cost of uncertainty) and simplification (reducing information costs). Using the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) member economies as a case study, the authors construct indices of importer and exporter transparency for the region from a wide range of sources. Our results from a gravity model suggest that improving trade-related transparency in APEC could hold significant benefits by raising intra-APEC trade by proximately USD 148 billion or 7.5 pecent of baseline trade in the region.Economic Theory&Research,Free Trade,Emerging Markets,Debt Markets,Trade Policy

Trade in health products: Reducing trade barriers for better health

Trade in health products has been flourishing in recent years as the demand for better health has been growing throughout the world. At the same time, trade in health products is hampered by substantive trade barriers. In this paper, we present evidence that countries around the world still apply tariffs and nontariff measures that increase prices and limit the availability of health-related products such as pharmaceuticals, vaccines, and medical equipment. The case for liberalizing trade in these products is therefore strong. In addition, we show that improving trade facilitation performance, using the World Trade Organization's Trade Facilitation Agreement as a starting point, can be linked to improved handling of health-related products such as vaccines which, in turn, would boost usage. In the last part of the paper, we study the price differences for insulin across countries. We observe that the price of insulin has various determinants, one of them being open trade: the higher the level of competition between manufacturers, the lower the price of insulin. In summary, lowering trade barriers on health products can make a substantive contribution to building up health systems and lowering out-of-pocket payments of patients

The Impact of Increased Import Competition from the People’s Republic of China on Income Inequality and Household Welfare in Viet Nam

This paper examines the surge of imports from the PRC to Viet Nam from 2000 to 2014 in order to evaluate the effects of increased exposure to trade with the PRC on income inequality and household welfare in Viet Nam. Using household level data from the Viet Nam Household Living Standard Survey and combining it with measures of trade exposure, we find that increased imports led to a fall in inequality at the provincial and district level. We distinguish between intermediate and final goods and find similar results. In order to better understand the relative gains and losses across income groups, we apply a quantile regression approach. Our results indicate that increased imports were more often positively correlated with household income for households located in the lower quantiles. In contrast, for households in the upper quantiles the correlation is either negative or less pronounced

Aid for trade facilitation

Does foreign aid spent on trade facilitation increase trade flows of developing countries? There is an on-going and high profile discussion of aid-for-trade associated with the Doha negotiations of the World Trade Organization. There continue also questions about how best to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. The analysis in this paper explicitly considers how to target aid most effectively to increase trade – a fundamental question related to the crisis and policy debate over restarting the world trading system. Using detailed data on aid flows from the OECD, the analysis here estimates the responsiveness of trade flows to specific types of foreign aid. The findings indicate that aid directed toward promoting trade enhances the trade performance of recipient countries: a 1 percent increase in aid directed toward trade policy and regulatory reform (amounting to about US$11.7 million more such aid) could generate an increase in global trade of about US$818 million. This yields a"rate of return"on every dollar of this type of aid of about US$697 in additional trade. As the dollar aid flow is relatively small, such targeted aid mitigates concerns about absorptive capacity and real exchange rate appreciation, which may accompany larger disbursements.