The Cliometrics of International Migration: A Survey

This is a survey of some of the key studies in the literature on international migration in history that may be described as cliometric. This literature uses the concepts and approaches of applied economics to investigate a range of historical issues and there are strong parallels with the questions that have been addressed in the literature on contemporary migrations. Here I focus on the period 1850 to 1940 and chiefly on migration from Europe to the New World. The survey is organised around six themes that include: the forces driving migration, over time and across space; the assimilation of migrants and their effects on wages and income distribution in source and destination countries; and the evolution of immigration policy. While this literature has drawn heavily on the tool kit of applied economists it also provides a wider perspective on many of the issues that concern migration today.international migration, economic history

Infant Mortality and the Health of Survivors: Britain 1910-1950

The first half of the twentieth century saw rapid improvements in the health and height of British children. Average height and health can be related to infant mortality through a positive selection effect and a negative scarring effect. Examining town-level panel data on the heights of school children I find no evidence for the selection effect but some support for the scarring effect. The results suggest that the improvement in the disease environment, as reflected by the decline in infant mortality, increased average height by about half a centimeter per decade in the first half of the twentieth century.health in Britain, heights of children, infant mortality

Modelling the redshift-space distortion of galaxy clustering

We use a set of large, high-resolution cosmological N-body simulations to examine the redshift-space distortions of galaxy clustering on scales of order 10-200h^{-1} Mpc. Galaxy redshift surveys currently in progress will, on completion, allow us to measure the quadrupole distortion in the 2-point correlation function, \xi(\sigma,\pi), or its Fourier transform, the power spectrum, P(k,\mu), to a high degree of accuracy. On these scales we typically find a positive quadrupole, as expected for coherent infall onto overdense regions and outflow from underdense regions, but the distortion is substantially weaker than that predicted by pure linear theory. We assess two models that may be regarded as refinements to linear theory, the Zel'dovich approximation and a dispersion model in which the non-linear velocities generated by the formation of virialized groups and clusters are treated as random perturbations to the velocities predicted by linear theory. We find that neither provides an adequate physical description of the clustering pattern. If used to model redshift spacedistortions on scales for 10<\lambda <200 h^{-1}Mpc the estimated value of \beta (\beta=f(\Omega_0)/b where f(\Omega_0) ~ \Omega_0^{0.6} and b is the galaxy bias parameter) is liable to systematic errors of order ten per cent or more. We discuss how such systematics can be avoided by i) development of a more complete model of redshift distortions and ii) the direct use of galaxy catalogues generated from non-linear N-body simulations.Comment: 13 pages, Latex, uses mn.sty and mnextra.sty (mnextra.sty included here

Unemployment and the UK Labour Market Before, During and After the Golden Age

During the ‘golden age’ of the 1950s and 1960s unemployment in Britain averaged 2 per cent. This was far lower than ever before or since and a number of hypotheses have been put forward to account for this unique period in labour market history. But there has been little attempt to isolate precisely how the determinants of wage setting and unemployment differed before, during and after the golden age. We estimate a two-equation model over the whole period from 1872 to 1999 using a newly constructed set of long-run labour market data. We find that the structure of real wage setting was different in the golden age, consistent with notions about the postwar consensus, but it did not result in wages that were significantly lower relative to productivity than during other eras. Rapid growth in productivity and world trade together with low interest rates did keep unemployment lower during the golden age than after the 1970s. But the key difference between the golden age and the periods before and after was shifts in labour demand that are not accounted for by any of the variables that are usually thought to determine the equilibrium unemployment rate

Immigration and Inter-Regional Mobility in the UK, 1982-2000

The possible effects of higher immigration, raising unemployment and lowering earnings for locals, has been a contentious empirical issue and it has recently come to the fore in Britain. Most studies that look across local labour markets, chiefly for the US but recently for the UK, have found the effects of immigration to be benign. One possibility is that an influx of immigrants from abroad to a specific area simply pushes non-immigrants onwards to other localities and thereby spreads the labour market effects over the whole economy. We investigate this issue looking at net internal migration across 11 UK regions over two decades. While we find consistently negative crowding out effects, the results are not statistically very strong. Neither are they enhanced when embedded in a model that includes other variables that drive inter-regional migration or one that examines bilateral population flows between regions. We conclude that this particular channel of adjustment is fairly weak.UK immigration, inter-regional migration

Immigrants Assimilate as Communities, not just as Individuals

There is a large econometric literature that examines the economic assimilation of immigrants in the United States and elsewhere. On the whole immigrants are seen as atomistic individuals assimilating in a largely anonymous labour market, a view that runs counter to the spirit of the equally large literature on ethnic groups. Here we argue that immigrants assimilate as communities, not just as individuals. The longer the immigrant community has been established the better adjusted it is to the host society and the more the host society comes to accept that ethnic group. Thus economic outcomes for immigrants should depend not just on their own characteristics, but also on the legacy of past immigration from the same country. In this paper we test this hypothesis using data from a 5 percent sample of the 1980, 1990 and 2000 US censuses. We find that history matters in immigrant assimilation: the stronger is the tradition of immigration from a given source country, the better the economic outcomes for new immigrants from that source.immigrant earnings, migration history, ethnic groups.

What Fundamentals Drive World Migration?

migration, poverty, demographic economics, emigration, immigration

The Effects on Stature of Poverty, Family Size and Birth Order: British Children in the 1930s

This paper examines effects of socio-economic conditions on the standardised heights and body mass index of children in Interwar Britain. It uses the Boyd Orr cohort, a survey of predominantly poor families taken in 1937-9, which provides a unique opportunity to explore the determinants of child health in the era before the welfare state. We examine the trade-off between the quality (in the form of health outcomes) and the number of children in the family at a time when genuine poverty still existed in Britain. Our results provide strong support both for negative birth order effects and negative family size effects on the heights of children. No such effects are found for the body mass index (BMI). We find that household income per capita positively influences the heights of children but, even after accounting for this, the number of children in the family still has a negative effect on height. This latter effect is closely associated with overcrowding and particularly with the degree of cleanliness or hygiene in the household, which conditions exposure to factors predisposing to disease. We also analyse evidence collected retrospectively, which indicates that the effects of childhood conditions on height persisted into adulthood.child health, heights, poverty