A DISCUSSION OF WATER QUALITY AND FOOD SAFETY ISSUES

Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

IMPACT OF PRODUCTION CHANGES ON INCOME AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

Regional and farm-level analyses are conducted to evaluate the economic and environmental impacts of water quality protection policies. The regional analysis evaluates reducing nitrate losses by reducing per-acre nitrogen use, taxing nitrogen use, taxing irrigation water use, and reducing furrow irrigation. Incentives to convert furrow systems to sprinkler and LEPA systems outperform the other policies. The firm-level analysis derives farm plans that limit the expected values of environmental indices for nitrates and pesticides, and reduce the probability that specified targets will be exceeded. The analysis demonstrates the importance of evaluating environmental risk as stochastic process.converting irrigation systems, environmental risk, environmental risk models, regional environmental analysis, taxing irrigation water, taxing nitrogen use, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries,

IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS: AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE

Recent declines in irrigated acres in the High Plains and shifts to crops which use less water are likely to continue, with an eventual return to dryland production in many regions. Declining groundwater levels and depletion of the Ogallala aquifer are secondary causes of this decline. Primary causes are high irrigation costs and low profitability of irrigated crops relative to dryland crops produced within and outside the region. Continued low commodity prices will speed the transition to dryland production as many current irrigators are unable to replace fully depreciated irrigation systems. Adoption of new technology will slow but not reverse the reduction in irrigated production.Crop Production/Industries,