Forecasting Chinese GDP Growth with Mixed Frequency Data: Which Indicators to Look at?

Building on a mixed data sampling (MIDAS) model we evaluate the predictive power of a variety of monthly macroeconomic indicators for forecasting quarterly Chinese GDP growth. We iterate the evaluation over forecast horizons from 370 days to 1 day prior to GDP release and track the release days of the indicators so as to only use information which is actually available at the respective day of forecast. This procedure allows us to detect how useful a specific indicator is at a specific forecast horizon relative to other indicators. Despite being published with an (additional) lag of one month the OECD leading indicator outperforms the leading indicators published by the Conference Board and by Goldman Sachs. Albeit being smaller in terms of market volume, the Shenzhen Composite Stock Exchange Index outperforms the Shanghai Composite Stock Exchange Index and several Hong Kong Stock Exchange indices. Consumer price inflation is especially valuable at forecast horizons of 11 to 7 months. The reserve requirement ratio for small banks proves to be a robust predictor at forecast horizons of 9 to 5 months, whereas the big banks reserve requirement ratio and the prime lending rate have lost their leading properties since 2009. Industrial production can be quite valuable for now- or even forecasting, but only if it is released shortly after the end of a month. Neither monthly retail sales, investment, trade, electricity usage, freight traffic nor the manufacturing purchasing managers' index of the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics help much for now- or forecasting. Our results might be relevant for experts who need to know which indicator releases are really valuable for predicting quarterly Chinese GDP growth, and which indicator releases have less predictive content

Serological diagnosis of infectious mononucleosis using three anti-Epstein-Barr virus recombinant ELISAs

A new Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) ELISA system (Biotest Anti-EBV recombinant) was evaluated for usefulness for routine diagnosis of EBV primary infection. The assay system is composed of three different microtest plates coated with three highly purified recombinant EBV antigens. The early antigens p138 (BALF2, truncated) and p54 (BMRF1, whole sequence) are used as a mixture for testing IgM (assay 1) and IgG (assay 2) antibodies. In addition, the EBNA-1 antigen p72 (BKRF1, carboxy-half) is used for detecting IgG antibodies (assay 3). Three panels of sera were examined in direct comparison with standard immunofluorescence (IF): Specimens of (i) 120 infectious mononucleosis (IM) patients, (ii) 60 patients with acute CMV infection, toxoplasmosis or rheumatic disease, respectively, and (iii) 185 healthy blood donors as a control group. 119 IM patients were clearly recognized as having acute primary infection (sensitivity 99.2% compared to VCA-IgM by IF). Three apparently false-positive results were obtained with patients of other diseases and none within the control group (specificity 98.8%). The data suggest that the recombinant ELISA can be used advantageously for standardized rapid diagnosis of acute EBV primary infection

Super-efficiency of education institutions: an application to economics departments

This paper investigates the efficiency of 188 economics departments around the world using data from RePEc. We go beyond the heavily used data envelopment analysis and utilize partial frontier analysis - specifically order-α and order-m - which addresses some of the drawbacks of the standard efficiency frontier analysis and allows for so-called super-efficient departments. We examine the particularities of these approaches and find that the super-efficient departments are not only the “usual suspects”. Furthermore, standard output rankings are not well correlated with our estimated efficiency rankings, which themselves are rather similar

Vorschlag zur Neugestaltung des Einkommensteuertarifs

SIGLEBibliothek Weltwirtschaft Kiel C 102,871 / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman