Variability and uncertainty in empirical ground-motion prediction for probabilistic hazard and risk analyses

© The Author(s) 2015.The terms aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty mean different things to people who routinely use them within the fields of seismic hazard and risk analysis. This state is not helped by the repetition of loosely framed generic definitions that actually inaccurate. The present paper takes a closer look at the components of total uncertainty that contribute to ground-motion modelling in hazard and risk applications. The sources and nature of uncertainty are discussed and it is shown that the common approach to deciding what should be included within hazard and risk integrals and what should be pushed into logic tree formulations warrants reconsideration. In addition, it is shown that current approaches to the generation of random fields of ground motions for spatial risk analyses are incorrect and a more appropriate framework is presented

The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement: Looking Ahead to the Next Steps

Pressure has been building for the conclusion of the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations. Getting the deal done is important, but the TPP is not just another free trade agreement (FTA). It represents the chance to set a trade agenda for the future across a wide range of topics for countries throughout the Asia-Pacific region. This means that the agreement should not be settled in haste. More importantly, it also means that key decisions need to be reached about broader issues related to the institutional structure of the TPP. These decisions must be made now, before the deal is closed, on issues such as how to create the TPP as a living agreement, the formation of a TPP Secretariat, and the clarification of entry conditions for future members such as the People’s Republic of China (PRC). These choices must be made deliberately and carefully even while officials are struggling with reaching closure on the most highly sensitive issues still remaining in the agreement. It will not be easy, but wise decisions are necessary now to ensure the long-term success of the TPP

A population-based case-control study on social factors and risk of testicular germ cell tumours

Objectives Incidence rates for testicular cancer have risen over the last few decades. Findings of an association between the risk of testicular cancer and social factors are controversial. The association of testicular cancer and different indicators of social factors were examined in this study.<p></p> Design Case–control study.<p></p> Setting Population-based multicentre study in four German regions (city states Bremen and Hamburg, the Saarland region and the city of Essen).<p></p> Participants The study included 797 control participants and 266 participants newly diagnosed with testicular cancer of which 167 cases were classified as seminoma and 99 as non-seminoma. The age of study participants ranged from 15 to 69 years.<p></p> Methods Social position was classified by educational attainment level, posteducational training, occupational sectors according to Erikson-Goldthorpe-Portocarrero (EGP) and the socioeconomic status (SES) on the basis of the International SocioEconomic Index of occupational status (ISEI). ORs and corresponding 95% CIs (95% CIs) were calculated for the whole study sample and for seminoma and non-seminoma separately.<p></p> Results Testicular cancer risk was modestly increased among participants with an apprenticeship (OR=1.7 (95% CI 1.0 to 2.8)) or a university degree (OR=1.6 (95% CI 0.9 to 2.8)) relative to those whose education was limited to school. Analysis of occupational sectors revealed an excess risk for farmers and farm-related occupations. No clear trend was observed for the analyses according to the ISEI-scale.<p></p> Conclusions Social factors based on occupational measures were not a risk factor for testicular cancer in this study. The elevated risk in farmers and farm-related occupations warrants further research including analysis of occupational exposures.<p></p&gt

Digital innovation for cancer risk assessment allows large-scale service redevelopment of regional cancer genetics service delivery.

Family-history assessment can identify individuals above population-risk for cancer to enable targeted Screening, Prevention and Early Detection (SPED). The online patient-facing cancer Family History Questionnaire Service (cFHQS) is a digitalised, resource efficient tool for family history data capture to facilitate this. The capturing of digital data from cFHQS allows for data interrogation of patients referred to Clinical Genetics for the purposes of service improvement. Digital data from 4,044 cFHQS respondents over a three-year period was collected and interrogated with respect to the number and type of familial tumour diagnoses to enable service improvement and streamlining of referral pathways. 81% of colorectal and 71% of breast screening assessments were population- or moderate-risk. Most patients who completed cFHQS reported more than one diagnosis of cancer/tumour/polyps in their family. 2.5% of family history assessment patients had a second indication that required assessment that would have been missed if single tumour type assessment was undertaken. Implementation of an innovative, digital family history data collection pathway has allowed large scale interrogation of referral patterns and assessment outcomes to enable service development. The high volume of inappropriate referrals to Clinical Genetics for population and moderate risk patients highlighted the need for dedicated secondary care pathway provision for these patients. The use of cFHQS streamlined family history assessment allows for redistribution of resources to improve equity and access to genetic cancer risk assessment

Stakeholder Theory and Marketing: Moving from a Firm-Centric to a Societal Perspective

This essay is inspired by the ideas and research examined in the special section on “Stakeholder Marketing” of the Journal of Public Policy & Marketing in 2010. The authors argue that stakeholder marketing is slowly coalescing with the broader thinking that has occurred in the stakeholder management and ethics literature streams during the past quarter century. However, the predominant view of stakeholders that many marketers advocate is still primarily pragmatic and company centric. The position advanced herein is that stronger forms of stakeholder marketing that reflect more normative, macro/societal, and network-focused orientations are necessary. The authors briefly explain and justify these characteristics in the context of the growing “prosociety” and “proenvironment” perspectives—orientations that are also in keeping with the public policy focus of this journal. Under the “hard form” of stakeholder theory, which the authors endorse, marketing managers must realize that serving stakeholders sometimes requires sacrificing maximum profits to mitigate outcomes that would inflict major damage on other stakeholders, especially society

Single Molecule Conformational Memory Extraction: P5ab RNA Hairpin

Extracting kinetic models from single molecule data is an important route to mechanistic insight in biophysics, chemistry, and biology. Data collected from force spectroscopy can probe discrete hops of a single molecule between different conformational states. Model extraction from such data is a challenging inverse problem because single molecule data are noisy and rich in structure. Standard modeling methods normally assume (i) a prespecified number of discrete states and (ii) that transitions between states are Markovian. The data set is then fit to this predetermined model to find a handful of rates describing the transitions between states. We show that it is unnecessary to assume either (i) or (ii) and focus our analysis on the zipping/unzipping transitions of an RNA hairpin. The key is in starting with a very broad class of non-Markov models in order to let the data guide us toward the best model from this very broad class. Our method suggests that there exists a folding intermediate for the P5ab RNA hairpin whose zipping/unzipping is monitored by force spectroscopy experiments. This intermediate would not have been resolved if a Markov model had been assumed from the onset. We compare the merits of our method with those of others

Exposure of bakery and pastry apprentices to airborne flour dust using PM2.5 and PM10 personal samplers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study describes exposure levels of bakery and pastry apprentices to flour dust, a known risk factor of occupational asthma.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Questionnaires on work activity were completed by 286 students. Among them, 34 performed a series of two personal exposure measurements using a PM_2.5and PM₁₀personal sampler during a complete work shift, one during a cold ("winter") period, and the other during a hot ("summer") period.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Bakery apprentices experience greater average PM_2.5and PM₁₀exposures than pastry apprentices (p < 0.006). Exposure values for both particulate fractions are greater in winter (average PM₁₀values among bakers = 1.10 mg.m^-3[standard deviation: 0.83]) than in summer (0.63 mg.m^-3[0.36]). While complying with current European occupational limit values, these exposures exceed the ACGIH recommendations set to prevent sensitization to flour dust (0.5 mg.m^-3). Over half the facilities had no ventilation system.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Young bakery apprentices incur substantial exposure to known airways allergens, a situation that might elicit early induction of airways inflammation.</p

Spina bifida-predisposing heterozygous mutations in Planar Cell Polarity genes and Zic2 reduce bone mass in young mice

Fractures are a common comorbidity in children with the neural tube defect (NTD) spina bifida. Mutations in the Wnt/planar cell polarity (PCP) pathway contribute to NTDs in humans and mice, but whether this pathway independently determines bone mass is poorly understood. Here, we first confirmed that core Wnt/PCP components are expressed in osteoblasts and osteoclasts in vitro. In vivo, we performed detailed µCT comparisons of bone structure in tibiae from young male mice heterozygous for NTD-associated mutations versus WT littermates. PCP signalling disruption caused by Vangl2 (Vangl2Lp/+) or Celsr1 (Celsr1Crsh/+) mutations significantly reduced trabecular bone mass and distal tibial cortical thickness. NTD-associated mutations in non-PCP transcription factors were also investigated. Pax3 mutation (Pax3Sp2H/+) had minimal effects on bone mass. Zic2 mutation (Zic2Ku/+) significantly altered the position of the tibia/fibula junction and diminished cortical bone in the proximal tibia. Beyond these genes, we bioinformatically documented the known extent of shared genetic networks between NTDs and bone properties. 46 genes involved in neural tube closure are annotated with bone-related ontologies. These findings document shared genetic networks between spina bifida risk and bone structure, including PCP components and Zic2. Genetic variants which predispose to spina bifida may therefore independently diminish bone mass

Four functional roles for case studies in emerging adulthood research

Case studies have four functional roles which, if more widely embraced, can help to advance theory and methodology in the study of emerging adults. These functions are: case-based theory development, individual-level prediction testing, theory exemplification, and idiographic psychobiography. We describe these functions and provide examples of how each one can add depth, richness and rigour to the burgeoning theory and research on emerging adulthood. We also discuss specifiability (the capacity of a theory to make predictions about, explain and interpret individuals) as a criterion of validity, to be considered as equivalent in status to the external validity criterion of generalizability. Finally we consider the protocols for case study sampling, including intensity sampling, deviant case sampling and significant case sampling