Variational Principles for Stellar Structure

The four equations of stellar structure are reformulated as two alternate pairs of variational principles. Different thermodynamic representations lead to the same hydromechanical equations, but the thermal equations require, not the entropy, but the temperature as the thermal field variable. Our treatment emphasizes the hydrostatic energy and the entropy production rate of luminosity produced and transported. The conceptual and calculational advantages of integral over differential formulations of stellar structure are discussed along with the difficulties in describing stellar chemical evolution by variational principles.Comment: 28 pages, LaTeX, requires AASTeX, 1 PostScript figure, revisions: erratum; accepted by Astrophysical Journa

Information theory in the study of anisotropic radiation

Information theory is used to perform a thermodynamic study of non equilibrium anisotropic radiation. We limit our analysis to a second-order truncation of the moments, obtaining a distribution function which leads to a natural closure of the hierarchy of radiative transfer equations in the so-called variable Eddington factor scheme. Some Eddington factors appearing in the literature can be recovered as particular cases of our two-parameter Eddington factor. We focus our attention in the study of the thermodynamic properties of such systems and relate it to recent nonequilibrium thermodynamic theories. Finally we comment the possibility of introducing a nonequilibrium chemical potential for photons.Comment: 1 eps figure upon request by e-mail, to appear in Journal of Physics

Genetic study of Diabetic Retinopathy: recruitment methodology and analysis of baseline characteristics

ARC and NHMRC funded authors may self-archive the author accepted version of their paper (authors manuscript) after a 12-month embargo period from publication in an open access institutional repository.BACKGROUND: Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a blinding disease of increasing prevalence, caused by a complex interplay of genetic and environmental factors. Here we describe the patient recruitment methodology, case and control definitions, and clinical characteristics of a study sample to be used for genome-wide association (GWAS) analysis to detect genetic risk variants of DR. METHODS: 1669 participants with either type 1 (T1) or type 2 (T2) diabetes mellitus (DM) aged 18 to 95 years were recruited in Australian hospital clinics. Individuals with T2DM had disease duration of at least 5 years, and were taking oral hypoglycemic medication, and/or insulin therapy. Participants underwent ophthalmic examination. Medical history and biochemistry results were collected. Venous blood was obtained for genetic analysis. RESULTS: 683 diabetic cases (178 T1DM and 505 T2DM participants) with sight-threatening DR, defined as severe non-proliferative DR (NPDR), proliferative DR (PDR) or diabetic macular edema (DME) were included in this analysis. 812 individuals with DM but no DR or minimal NPDR were recruited as controls (191 with T1DM and 621 with T2DM). The presence of sight-threatening DR was significantly correlated with DM duration, hypertension, nephropathy, neuropathy, HbA1C and BMI. DME was associated with T2DM (p<0.001), whereas PDR was associated with T1DM (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Adoption of a case-control study design involving extremes of the DR phenotype makes this a suitable cohort, for a well-powered GWAS to detect genetic risk variants for DR.This work was funded by a grant from the Ophthalmic Research Institute of Australia, and Project Grant #595918 from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia. JEC is supported in part by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship and KPB by a Career Development Fellowship. Research conducted at Moorfields Eye Hospital was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre at Moorfields Eye Hospital NHS Foundation Trust and UCL Institute of Ophthalmology

Specificity of Four Laboratory Approaches for Cross-Sectional HIV Incidence Determination: Analysis of Samples from Adults with Known Nonrecent HIV Infection from Five African Countries

Assays to determine cross-sectional HIV incidence misclassify some individuals with nonrecent HIV infection as recently infected, overestimating HIV incidence. We analyzed factors associated with false-recent misclassification in five African countries. Samples from 2197 adults from Botswana, Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania, and Uganda who were HIV infected > 12 months were tested using the (1) BED capture enzyme immunoassay (BED), (2) avidity assay, (3) BED and avidity assays with higher assay cutoffs (BED+ avidity screen), and (4) multiassay algorithm (MAA) that includes the BED+ avidity screen, CD4 cell count, and HIV viral load. Logistic regression identified factors associated with misclassification. False-recent misclassification rates and 95% confidence intervals were BED alone: 7.6% (6.6, 8.8); avidity assay alone: 3.5% (2.7, 4.3); BED+ avidity screen: 2.2% (1.7, 2.9); and MAA: 1.2% (0.8, 1.8). The misclassification rate for the MAA was significantly lower than the rates for the other three methods (each p < 0.05). Misclassification rates were lower when the analysis was limited to subtype C-endemic countries, with the lowest rate obtained for the MAA [0.8% (0.2, 1.9)]. Factors associated with misclassification were for BED alone: country of origin, antiretroviral treatment (ART), viral load, and CD4 cell count; for avidity assay alone: country of origin; for BED+ avidity screen: country of origin and ART. No factors were associated with misclassification using the MAA. In a multivariate model, these associations remained significant with one exception: the association of ART with misclassification was completely attenuated. A MAA that included CD4 cell count and viral load had lower false-recent misclassification than the BED or avidity assays (alone or in combination). Studies are underway to compare the sensitivity of these methods for detection of recent HIV infection

Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued its Fourth Assessment Report. The Report included predictions of dramatic increases in average world temperatures over the next 92 years and serious harm resulting from the predicted temperature increases. Using forecasting principles as our guide we asked: Are these forecasts a good basis for developing public policy? Our answer is “no”. To provide forecasts of climate change that are useful for policy-making, one would need to forecast (1) global temperature, (2) the effects of any temperature changes, and (3) the effects of feasible alternative policies. Proper forecasts of all three are necessary for rational policy making. The IPCC WG1 Report was regarded as providing the most credible long-term forecasts of global average temperatures by 31 of the 51 scientists and others involved in forecasting climate change who responded to our survey. We found no references in the 1056-page Report to the primary sources of information on forecasting methods despite the fact these are conveniently available in books, articles, and websites. We audited the forecasting processes described in Chapter 8 of the IPCC’s WG1 Report to assess the extent to which they complied with forecasting principles. We found enough information to make judgments on 89 out of a total of 140 forecasting principles. The forecasting procedures that were described violated 72 principles. Many of the violations were, by themselves, critical. The forecasts in the Report were not the outcome of scientific procedures. In effect, they were the opinions of scientists transformed by mathematics and obscured by complex writing. Research on forecasting has shown that experts’ predictions are not useful in situations involving uncertainly and complexity. We have been unable to identify any scientific forecasts of global warming. Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder

INTCare: a knowledge discovery based intelligent decision support system for intensive care medicine

This paper introduces the INTCare system, an intelligent information system based on a completely automated Knowledge Discovery process and on the Agents paradigm. The system was designed to work in Hospital Intensive Care Units, supporting the physicians’ decisions by means of prognostic Data Mining models. In particular, these techniques were used to predict organ failure and mortality assessment. The main intention is to change the current reactive behaviour to a pro-active one, enhancing the quality of service. Current applications and experimentations, the functional and structural aspects, and technological options are presented

Parental social class and school GCSE outcomes:Two decades of evidence from UK household panel surveys

This paper investigates social class inequalities in English school qualifications. The analytical focus is pupils’ outcomes in General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs). The original aspect of this paper is the operationalisation of data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS), which facilitates analyses from 1991 to 2013. We observe a general trend of improved educational outcomes in more recent cohorts of school pupils, which is consistent with national results. The central empirical finding is that there is a persistent social class gradient. Pupils growing up in families in less advantaged social classes have less favourable school GCSE outcomes. This is especially concerning, because having fewer good GCSEs is likely to limit children’s participation in more advanced education and restrict their options in the labour market. Changes in the structure and content of GCSEs lead us to conjecture that sociological analyses of social class inequalities in school qualifications will continue to be important. We highlight the limitations of using administrative educational data, and we outline the data resources that would better facilitate the study of social class inequalities

Treatment of displaced intra-articular calcaneal fractures by ligamentotaxis: current concepts’ review

Introduction: A large variety of therapeutic modalities for calcaneal fractures have been described in the literature. No single treatment modality for displaced intra-articular calcaneal fractures has proven superior over the other. This review describes and compares the different percutaneous distractional approaches for intra-articular calcaneal fractures. The history, technique, anatomical and fracture considerations, limitations and the results of different distractional approaches reported in the literature are reviewed. Method: Literature review on different percutaneous distractional approaches for displaced intra-articular calcaneal fractures. Results: Eight studies in which application of a distraction technique was used for the treatment of calcaneal fractures were identified. Because of the use of different classification, techniques, and outcome scoring systems, a meta-analysis was not possible. A literature review reveals overall fair to poor result in 10-29% of patients. Ten up to 26% of patients are unable to return to work after percutaneous treatment of their fracture. A secondary arthrodesis has to be performed in 2-15% of the cases. Infectious complications occur in 2-15%. Some loss of reduction is reported in 4-67%. Conclusion: Percutaneous distractional reduction and fixation appears to be a safe technique with overall good results and an acceptable complication rate, compared with other treatment modalities for displaced intra-articular calcaneal fractures. A meta-analysis, based on Cochrane Library criteria is not possible, because of a lack of level 1 and 2 trials on this subject