Erwartungsbildung über den Wahlausgang und ihr Einfluss auf die Wahlentscheidung

Erwartungen über den Wahlausgang haben einen festen Platz sowohl in Rational-Choice-Theorien des Wählerverhaltens als auch in stärker sozialpsychologisch orientierten Ansätzen. Die Bildung von Erwartungen und ihr Einfluss auf die Wahlentscheidung ist dabei jedoch ein noch relativ unerforschtes Gebiet. In diesem Beitrag werden anhand von Wahlstudien für Belgien, Österreich und Deutschland verschiedene Fragen der Erwartungsbildung und ihrer Auswirkungen untersucht. Zunächst wird die Qualität der Gesamterwartungen analysiert und verschiedene Faktoren identifiziert, die einen systematischen Einfluss auf die Erwartungsbildung haben. Im zweiten Schritt wenden wir uns den Einzelerwartungen über verschiedene Parteien und Koalitionen zu und finden eine moderate Verzerrung zugunsten der präferierten Parteien und Koalitionen. Dabei kann gezeigt werden, dass der Effekt des Wunschdenkens mit dem politischen Wissen und dem Bildungsgrad abnimmt. Schließlich werden in einem letzten Schritt zwei unterschiedliche Logiken für die Auswirkungen von Erwartungen getestet, das rationale Kalkül des koalitionsstrategischen Wählens zur Vermeidung der Stimmenvergeudung sowie der sozialpsychologisch begründete Bandwagon-Effekt. Das Ausmaß an politischem Wissen scheint dabei eine zentrale vermittelnde Variable zwischen den beiden Logiken zu sein

Testing the predictors of boredom at school : development and validation of the precursors to boredom scales

Background. Boredom has been found to be an important emotion for students' learning processes and achievement outcomes; however, the precursors of this emotion remain largely unexplored.Aim. In the current study, scales assessing the precursors to boredom in academic achievement settings were developed and tested.Sample. Participants were 1,380 grade 5–10 students in mathematics classes.Method. The Precursors to Boredom Scales were tested for structural and convergent validity with multi-level confirmatory factor analyses (ML-CFA), and differences in the perception of the precursors of boredom due to gender were investigated.Results. The first ML-CFA found support for the structural validity of the Precursors to Boredom Scales. In a second ML-CFA, the newly developed boredom scales showed good convergent validity with several key aspects of instructional quality. Finally, the results supported previous research that found no gender differences in academic self-concept and interest.Conclusion. The precursors contained in our scales are empirically separable. Implications of the current findings for research on boredom among students are discussed

How Accurately Can Parents Judge Their Children's Boredom in School?

The purpose of the present study was to explore what parents know about their Children's boredom in school; specifically, the frequency, intensity, and antecedents of their Children's boredom, as well as how they cope with boredom. A questionnaire was administered to 437 grade 9 students (54% female, M age = 14.82) and their parents (72% mothers, 14% fathers, 12% both parents, M age = 45.26) measuring variables related to students boredom in mathematics class. Three different measurements were used to evaluate the accuracy of parents' judgments: (1) the correlation between parents' and students' answers, (2) the mean differences between parents' and students' answers, and (3) the mean values of absolute differences of parents' and students' answers. The results suggest that parents generally have an informed knowledge about their child's boredom and related facets. This is reflected by a mean correlation of medium size ( = 0.34) and a small mean effect size of the difference between parents' and students' judgments over all items ( = 0.20). Parents are also substantially better in judging their Children's boredom compared to guessing for all variables (mean effect size of = 0.65). They had the most precise judgments for the frequency and intensity of boredom. The antecedents of boredom (e.g., characteristics of instruction) were also well estimated by parents; specifically, parents tend to have a bias in favor for their children evidenced by overestimating antecedents that cannot be influenced by the students and underestimating those that can be influenced by the students. The least concordance was found between parents' and Children's perception of boredom coping strategies (e.g., accepting boredom), implying that parents lack information about how their children intentionally cope with boredom. Implications for research on student boredom are discussed as well as practical applications involving parents in boredom prevention.publishe