Self-selection patterns in Mexico-U.S. migration: the role of migration networks

This paper examines the role of migration networks in determining self-selection patterns of Mexico-U.S. migration. We first present a simple theoretical framework showing how such networks impact on migration incentives at different education levels and, consequently, how they are likely to affect the expected skill composition of migration. Using survey data from Mexico, we then show that the probability of migration is increasing with education in communities with low migrant networks, but decreasing with education in communities with high migrant networks. This is consistent with positive self-selection of migrants being driven by high migration costs, as advocated by Chiquiar and Hanson (2005), and with negative self-selection of migrants being driven by lower returns to education in the U.S. than in Mexico, as advocated by Borjas (1987)

The brain drain and the world distribution of income and population

This paper models the evolution of the world distribution of income and shows that while the distribution of income per capita across economies in the world will be stable in the long run, the world distribution of population may be divergent. The paper then uses this model to analyze the impact of the current trend towards predominantly skilled emigration from poor to rich countries on fertility, human capital formation, and growth, in both the sending and receiving countries. It shows that in the long run, brain drain migration patterns may increase world inequality as relatively poor countries grow large in terms of population. In the short run however, it is possible for world inequality to fall due to rises in GDP per capita in large developing economies with low skilled emigration rates

Can migration reduce educational attainments? depressing evidence from Mexico

This paper examines the impact of migration on educational attainments in rural Mexico. Using historical migration rates by state to instrument for current migration, we find evidence of a significant negative effect of migration on schooling attendance and attainments of 12 to 18 year-old boys and of 16 to 18 year-old girls. IV-Censored Ordered Probit results show that living in a migrant household lowers the chances of boys completing junior high-school and of boys and girls completing high-school. The negative effect of migration on schooling is somewhat mitigated for younger girls with low educated mothers, which is consistent with remittances relaxing credit constraints on education investment for the very poor. However, for the majority of rural Mexican children, family migration depresses educational attainment. Comparison of the marginal effects of migration on school attendance and on participation to other activities shows that the observed decrease in schooling of 16 to 18 year olds is accounted for by current migration of boys and increases in housework for girls

Measuring international skilled migration: new estimates controlling for age of entry

Recent data on international skilled migration define skilled migrants according to education level independently of whether education has been acquired in the home or in the host country. In this paper we use immigrants’ age of entry as a proxy for where education has been acquired. Data on age of entry are available from a subset of receiving countries which together represent more than 3/4 of total skilled immigration to the OECD. Using these data and a simple gravity model, we estimate the age-of-entry structure of skilled immigration and propose alternative brain drain measures by excluding those arrived before age 12, 18 and 22. The results for 2000 show that on average, 68% of the global brain drain is accounted for by emigration of people aged 22 or more upon arrival (78% and 87% for the 18 and 12 year old thresholds, respectively). For some countries this indeed makes a substantial difference. However, cross-country differences are globally maintained, resulting in extremely high correlation levels between corrected and uncorrected rates. Similar results are obtained for 1990

Remittances and inequality: a dynamic migration model

We develop a model to study the effects of migration and remittances on inequality in the origin communities. While wealth inequality is shown to be monotonically reduced along the time-span, the short- and the long-run impacts on income inequality may be of opposite signs, suggesting that the dynamic relationship between migration/remittances and inequality may well be characterized by an inverse U-shaped pattern. This is consistent with the findings of the empirical literature, yet offers a different interpretation from the usually assumed migration network effects. With no need to endogenize migration costs through the role of migration networks, we generate the same result via intergenerational wealth accumulation

L'approvisionnement vivrier de Kinshasa (Zaïre) : stratégies d'adaptation à la crise du système alimentaire

Le Zaïre connaît actuellement une crise vivrière sans précédent. Les limites du système traditionnel de production agricole sont révélées par l'augmentation de la pression démographique; dans le même temps, le réseau routier et ferroviaire est en voie de désagrégation. L'approvisionnement des grands centres urbains, et particulièrement de la capitale, Kinshasa, est donc de plus en plus problématique. Malgré ces contraintes pesantes, le fatalisme n'est pas de mise : de nouvelles formes de production et de commercialisation se développent, et l'on assiste même, à Kinshasa et au Bas-Zaïre, à une redynamisation de l'économie locale, le plus souvent dans le cadre communautaire. (Résumé d'auteur

When a few undermine the whole: a class of social dilemmas in ridesharing

We investigate a class of social dilemmas that arise when a heterogeneous group of agents potentially benefit from a joint enterprise such as ridesharing. Participation in the enterprise incurs positive externalities to other participants; social welfare is maximized with full participation. However, if some agents find it a dominant strategy to opt out, then the potential benefit from the enterprise will decrease, leading to more members opting out. This iterated disincentivizing effect could result in massive welfare losses. We construct a game-theoretical model to implement these social dilemmas and report experimental evidence for their existence and welfare impact.NSF Grant SES-141892

Reporting of child maltreatment during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in New York City from March to May 2020

© 2020 Elsevier Ltd Background: School closures and other public health responses have decreased the extent that children interact with mandated reporters and other professionals trained to detect child maltreatment. Objective: To assess associations between the pandemic public health response and the number of allegations of child abuse or neglect. Methods: This study analyzed monthly data from New York City of the number of child maltreatment allegations, stratified by reporter type (e.g., mandated reporter, education personnel, healthcare personnel), as well as the number of Child Protective Services (CPS) investigations warranting child welfare preventative services. SARIMA models were trained using data from January 2015 to February 2020 to predict expected values for March, April, and May 2020. Observed values were compared against predicted values at an alpha of .05. Results: Substantially fewer allegations of child maltreatment were reported than expected in March (-28.8 %, deviation: 1848, 95 % CI: [1272, 2423]), April (-51.5 %, deviation: 2976, 95 % CI: [2382, 3570]), and May 2020 (-46.0 %, deviation: 2959, 95 % CI: [2347, 3571]). Significant decreases in child maltreatment reporting were also noted for all reporter subtypes examined for March, April, and May 2020. Fewer CPS investigations warranted preventative services than expected in March 2020 (-43.5 %, deviation: 303, 95 % CI: [132, 475]). Conclusions: Precipitous drops in child maltreatment reporting and child welfare interventions coincided with social distancing policies designed to mitigate COVID-19 transmission. In light of these findings, educators and healthcare providers must be especially vigilant when engaging online with children and their families for signs of child abuse and/or neglect