Impacts of good practice policies on regional and global greenhouse gas emissions

The report looks at the impact of "good practice"emission reduction policies in nine different areas globally and across six countries: China, Brazil, India, the US, Russia and Japan. These include renewable energy, a variety of energy efficiency standards (buildings, car fuel efficiecy, appliances and lighting, industry), hydrofluorocarbons (HFC.s), emissions from fossil fuel production, electric cars and forestry. The authors looked at the most ambitious "good practice" policies around the world that are being implemented now, and calculated the difference these would make if everybody were to apply them. If all governments follow those governments that currently adopt the best climate policies in just nin different areas, they could reduce emissions close to the levels needed to stay on track to hold global warming below 2 degrees C. The implementation of good practice policies is projected to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions at 49-50 GtCO2e by 2020, and decrease to 44- 47 GtCO2e by 2030- close to the 2 degrees C emissions range (30-44 GtCO2e) by 2030. Direct replication of good practice policies is projected to halt emissions growth in most regions sinificantly before 2030. In contrast, current policies are expected to see emissions to increase to around 54 GtCO2e by 2020 and 59-60 GtCO2e by 2030

Climate change impacts and mitigation in the developing world: An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors. Policy Research Working Paper No. WPS 7477

This paper conducts an integrated assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to 2080. The findings show that climate change effects on the agricultural sector will increase progressively over the century. By 2030, the impact of climate change on food consumption is moderate but already twice as large in a world with high inequalities than in a more equal world. In the long run, impacts could be much stronger, with global average calorie losses of 6 percent by 2050 and 14 percent by 2080. A mitigation policy to stabilize climate below 2 degrees C uniformly applied to all regions as a carbon tax would also result in a 6 percent reduction in food availability by 2050 and 12 percent reduction by 2080 compared to the reference scenario. To avoid more severe impacts of climate change mitigation on development than climate change itself, revenue from carbon pricing policies will need to be redistributed appropriately. Overall, the projected effects of climate change and mitigation on agricultural markets raise important issues for food security in the long run, but remain more limited in the medium term horizon of 2030. Thus, there are opportunities for low- and middle- income countries to pursue immediate development needs and thus prepare for later periods when adaptation needs and mitigation efforts will become the greatest

Need of Assistance with Daily Oral Hygiene Measures Among Nursing Home Resident Elderly Versus the Actual Assistance Received from the Staff

The aim was to evaluate the need of assistance with daily oral hygiene measures among nursing home resident elderly versus the actual assistance received from the staff. The need of daily oral hygiene assistance was assessed descriptively for nursing home resident elderly who participated in an annual oral health screening in three geographical regions in Sweden, in the year 2008. All individuals of age ≥ 65 years were included (n = 22,453; 6,327 men; 16,126 women). The proportion of individuals in need of assistance with daily oral hygiene measures was 77.5 % (n=22,453), whereas the proportion of individuals receiving assistance with daily oral hygiene measures was 6.9 % in total (n=22,453). The proportions were largely similar in all geographical regions. There seems to be a large discrepancy between the need of assistance with daily oral hygiene measures, and the oral hygiene assistance received, among nursing home resident elderly

Modeling stand-level mortality based on maximum stem number and seasonal temperature

Mortality is a key process in forest stand dynamics. However, tree mortality is not well understood, particularly in relation to climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to: (i) determine the patterns of maximum stem number per ha (MSN) over dominant tree height from 5-year remeasurements of the permanent sample plots for temperate forests [Red pine (Pinus densiflora), Japanese larch (Larix kaempferi), Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis), Chinese cork oak (Quercus variabilis), and Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica)] using Sterba’s theory and Korean National Forest Inventory (NFI) data, (ii) develop a stand-level mortality (self-thinning) model using the MSN curve, and (iii) assess the impact of temperature on tree mortality in semi-variogram and linear regression models. The MSN curve represents the upper boundary of observed stem numbers per ha. The developed mortality model with our results showed a high degree of reliability (R2 = 0.55–0.81) and no obvious dependencies or patterns in residuals. However, spatial autocorrelation was detected from residuals of coniferous species (Red pine, Japanese larch and Korean pine), but not for oak species (Chinese cork oak and Mongolian oak). Based on the linear regression analysis of residuals, we found that the mortality of coniferous forests tended to increase with the rising seasonal temperature. This is more evident during winter and spring months. Conversely, oak mortality did not significantly vary with increasing temperature. These findings indicate that enhanced tree mortality due to rising temperatures in response to climate change is possible, especially in coniferous forests, and is expected to contribute to forest management decisions

Global and Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions Neutrality

This report gives an overview of the literature on greenhouse gas emissions neutrality, as targeted in the Paris Agreement to achieve a ‘balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removal by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century’. It presents additional scenario analysis, focusing on the global and regional decarbonisation implications of phasing out greenhouse gas emissions, as seen in 2 °C scenarios. It further explores the implications of these scenarios for changes in land use

The land use change impact of biofuels consumed in the EU: Quantification of area and greenhouse gas impacts

Biofuels are promoted as an option to reduce climate emissions from the transport sector. As most biofuels are currently produced from land based crops, there is a concern that the increased consumption of biofuels requires agricultural expansion at a global scale, leading to additional carbon emissions. This effect is called Indirect Land Use Change, or ILUC. The EU Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC) directed the European Commission to develop a methodology to account for the ILUC effect. The current study serves to provide new insights to the European Commission and other stakeholders about these indirect carbon and land impacts from biofuels consumed in the EU, with more details on production processes and representation of individual feedstocks than was done before. ILUC cannot be observed or measured in reality, because it is entangled with a large number of other changes in agricultural markets at both global and local levels. The effect can only be estimated through the use of models. The current study is part of a continuous effort to improve the understanding and representation of ILUC