Impact of tropical SST variations on the linear predictability of the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic/European region

Seasonal mean values of tropical Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Atlantic/European Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) from a 301-year coupled ocean/atmosphere model run are analysed statistically. Relations between the two fields are identified on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. It is shown that tropical SST variability affects Atlantic/European MSLP in winter. In particular, there appears to be a statistically significant relation, between the leading modes of variability, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During cold ENSO (La Niña) years the NAO tends to be in its positive phase, while the opposite is the case during warm ENSO (El Niño) years, although to a lesser extent. Similar analyses that are presented for gridded observational data, confirm this result, although here tropical Atlantic SST appears to be stronger related to the NAO than tropical Pacific SST. The linear predictability of a model simulated NAO index is estimated by making statistical predictions that are based on model simulated tropical SST. It is shown that the predictive skill is rather insensitive to the length of the training period. On the other hand, the skill score estimate can vary significantly as a result of interdecadal variability in the climate system. These results are important to bear in mind when making statistical seasonal forecasts that are based on observed SST

Flaw growth behavior of Inconel 718 at room and cryogenic temperature Final report, 29 Apr. 1968 - 31 Oct. 1969

Fracture crack propagation in Inconel at room and cryogenic temperatures for surface defective sample

Limited-area short-range ensemble predictions targeted for heavy rain in Europe

International audienceInherent uncertainties in short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the high-resolution, limited-area numerical weather prediction model DMI-HIRLAM (LAM) are addressed using two different approaches to creating a small ensemble of LAM simulations, with focus on prediction of extreme rainfall events over European river basins. The first ensemble type is designed to represent uncertainty in the atmospheric state of the initial condition and at the lateral LAM boundaries. The global ensemble prediction system (EPS) from ECMWF serves as host model to the LAM and provides the state perturbations, from which a small set of significant members is selected. The significance is estimated on the basis of accumulated precipitation over a target area of interest, which contains the river basin(s) under consideration. The selected members provide the initial and boundary data for the ensemble integration in the LAM. A second ensemble approach tries to address a portion of the model-inherent uncertainty responsible for errors in the forecasted precipitation field by utilising different parameterisation schemes for condensation and convection in the LAM. Three periods around historical heavy rain events that caused or contributed to disastrous river flooding in Europe are used to study the performance of the LAM ensemble designs. The three cases exhibit different dynamic and synoptic characteristics and provide an indication of the ensemble qualities in different weather situations. Precipitation analyses from the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD) are used as the verifying reference and a comparison of daily rainfall amounts is referred to the respective river basins of the historical cases

The effect of wave breaking on surf-zone turbulence and alongshore currents : a modeling study

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2005. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 35 (2005): 2187–2203, doi:10.1175/JPO2800.1.The effect of breaking-wave-generated turbulence on the mean circulation, turbulence, and bottom stress in the surf zone is poorly understood. A one-dimensional vertical coupled turbulence (k–ε) and mean-flow model is developed that incorporates the effect of wave breaking with a time-dependent surface turbulence flux and uses existing (published) model closures. No model parameters are tuned to optimize model–data agreement. The model qualitatively reproduces the mean dissipation and production during the most energetic breaking-wave conditions in 4.5-m water depth off of a sandy beach and slightly underpredicts the mean alongshore current. By modeling a cross-shore transect case example from the Duck94 field experiment, the observed surf-zone dissipation depth scaling and the observed mean alongshore current (although slightly underpredicted) are generally reproduced. Wave breaking significantly reduces the modeled vertical shear, suggesting that surf-zone bottom stress cannot be estimated by fitting a logarithmic current profile to alongshore current observations. Model-inferred drag coefficients follow parameterizations (Manning–Strickler) that depend on the bed roughness and inversely on the water depth, although the inverse depth dependence is likely a proxy for some other effect such as wave breaking. Variations in the bed roughness and the percentage of breaking-wave energy entering the water column have a comparable effect on the mean alongshore current and drag coefficient. However, covarying the wave height, forcing, and dissipation and bed roughness separately results in an alongshore current (drag coefficient) only weakly (strongly) dependent on the bed roughness because of the competing effects of increased turbulence, wave forcing, and orbital wave velocities.This work was funded by NSF, ONR, and NOPP

Vertical structure of dissipation in the nearshore

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 37 (2007): 1764-1777, doi:10.1175/jpo3098.1.The vertical structure of the dissipation of turbulence kinetic energy was observed in the nearshore region (3.2-m mean water depth) with a tripod of three acoustic Doppler current meters off a sandy ocean beach. Surface and bottom boundary layer dissipation scaling concepts overlap in this region. No depth-limited wave breaking occurred at the tripod, but wind-induced whitecapping wave breaking did occur. Dissipation is maximum near the surface and minimum at middepth, with a secondary maximum near the bed. The observed dissipation does not follow a surfzone scaling, nor does it follow a “log layer” surface or bottom boundary layer scaling. At the upper two current meters, dissipation follows a modified deep-water breaking-wave scaling. Vertical shear in the mean currents is negligible and shear production magnitude is much less than dissipation, implying that the vertical diffusion of turbulence is important. The increased near-bed secondary dissipation maximum results from a decrease in the turbulent length scale.Funding was provided by NSF and ONR

Trends in Competitive Balance: Is There Evidence for Growing Imbalance in Professional Sport Leagues?

The concept of competitive balance is a central aspect in the literature of sports economics. A popular argumentation of sport functionaries is that dominance of one or a few teams could lead to unequal incomes for the clubs, restrictions in the clubs' ability to improve sporting performance and ultimately to a loss of attractiveness and loss of income for the league. Following this line of reasoning and alleging a negative trend in competitive sports functionaries often try to implement regulations in team sport leagues. The aim of this paper is to analyze for eight different leagues if there is such a trend existing. For an empirical test for trends in competitive balance of four European soccer leagues (ENG, ESP, GER, ITA) and four US Major Leagues (MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL), OLS regressions with a constant were carried out. For the entire observation period from 1969/70 to 2003/2004, of 48 trends ascertained, only 12 could be observed as being significantly positive (i.e. growing imbalance) with 19 significantly negative (i.e. growing balance). The remaining 17 trends were insignificantly different from zero

Optimization of sample preparation and green color imaging using the mNeonGreen fluorescent protein in bacterial cells for photoactivated localization microscopy.

mNeonGreen fluorescent protein is capable of photo-switching, hence in principle applicable for super-resolution imaging. However, difficult-to-control blinking kinetics that lead to simultaneous emission of multiple nearby mNeonGreen molecules impedes its use for PALM. Here, we determined the on- and off- switching rate and the influence of illumination power on the simultaneous emission. Increasing illumination power reduces the probability of simultaneous emission, but not enough to generate high quality PALM images. Therefore, we introduce a simple data post-processing step that uses temporal and spatial information of molecule localizations to further reduce artifacts arising from simultaneous emission of nearby emitters. We also systematically evaluated various sample preparation steps to establish an optimized protocol to preserve cellular morphology and fluorescence signal. In summary, we propose a workflow for super-resolution imaging with mNeonGreen based on optimization of sample preparation, data acquisition and simple post-acquisition data processing. Application of our protocol enabled us to resolve the expected double band of bacterial cell division protein DivIVA, and to visualize that the chromosome organization protein ParB organized into sub-clusters instead of the typically observed diffraction-limited foci. We expect that our workflow allows a broad use of mNeonGreen for super-resolution microscopy, which is so far difficult to achieve

Quantum Lattice Solitons

The number state method is used to study soliton bands for three anharmonic quantum lattices: i) The discrete nonlinear Schr\"{o}dinger equation, ii) The Ablowitz-Ladik system, and iii) A fermionic polaron model. Each of these systems is assumed to have $f$-fold translational symmetry in one spatial dimension, where $f$ is the number of freedoms (lattice points). At the second quantum level $(n=2)$ we calculate exact eigenfunctions and energies of pure quantum states, from which we determine binding energy $(E_{\rm b})$, effective mass $(m^{*})$ and maximum group velocity $(V_{\rm m})$ of the soliton bands as functions of the anharmonicity in the limit $f \to \infty$. For arbitrary values of $n$ we have asymptotic expressions for $E_{\rm b}$, $m^{*}$, and $V_{\rm m}$ as functions of the anharmonicity in the limits of large and small anharmonicity. Using these expressions we discuss and describe wave packets of pure eigenstates that correspond to classical solitons.Comment: 21 pages, 1 figur