Bayesian analysis of magnetic island dynamics

We examine a first order differential equation with respect to time coming up in the description of magnetic islands in magnetically confined plasmas. The free parameters of this equation are obtained by employing Bayesian probability theory. Additionally a typical Bayesian change point is solved in the process of obtaining the data.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, submitted to be included in MaxEnt 2002 proceeding

Decomposition of multicomponent mass spectra using Bayesian probability theory

We present a method for the decomposition of mass spectra of mixture gases using Bayesian probability theory. The method works without any calibration measurement and therefore applies also to the analysis of spectra containing unstable species. For the example of mixtures of three different hydrocarbon gases the algorithm provides concentrations and cracking coefficients of each mixture component as well as their confidence intervals. The amount of information needed to obtain reliable results and its relation to the accuracy of our analysis are discussed

The effect of dose on the antimalarial efficacy of artemether–lumefantrine: a systematic review and pooled analysis of individual patient data

Background Artemether–lumefantrine is the most widely used artemisinin-based combination therapy for malaria, although treatment failures occur in some regions. We investigated the effect of dosing strategy on efficacy in a pooled analysis from trials done in a wide range of malaria-endemic settings. Methods We searched PubMed for clinical trials that enrolled and treated patients with artemether–lumefantrine and were published from 1960 to December, 2012. We merged individual patient data from these trials by use of standardised methods. The primary endpoint was the PCR-adjusted risk of Plasmodium falciparum recrudescence by day 28. Secondary endpoints consisted of the PCR-adjusted risk of P falciparum recurrence by day 42, PCR-unadjusted risk of P falciparum recurrence by day 42, early parasite clearance, and gametocyte carriage. Risk factors for PCR-adjusted recrudescence were identified using Cox's regression model with frailty shared across the study sites. Findings We included 61 studies done between January, 1998, and December, 2012, and included 14 327 patients in our analyses. The PCR-adjusted therapeutic efficacy was 97·6% (95% CI 97·4–97·9) at day 28 and 96·0% (95·6–96·5) at day 42. After controlling for age and parasitaemia, patients prescribed a higher dose of artemether had a lower risk of having parasitaemia on day 1 (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0·92, 95% CI 0·86–0·99 for every 1 mg/kg increase in daily artemether dose; p=0·024), but not on day 2 (p=0·69) or day 3 (0·087). In Asia, children weighing 10–15 kg who received a total lumefantrine dose less than 60 mg/kg had the lowest PCR-adjusted efficacy (91·7%, 95% CI 86·5–96·9). In Africa, the risk of treatment failure was greatest in malnourished children aged 1–3 years (PCR-adjusted efficacy 94·3%, 95% CI 92·3–96·3). A higher artemether dose was associated with a lower gametocyte presence within 14 days of treatment (adjusted OR 0·92, 95% CI 0·85–0·99; p=0·037 for every 1 mg/kg increase in total artemether dose). Interpretation The recommended dose of artemether–lumefantrine provides reliable efficacy in most patients with uncomplicated malaria. However, therapeutic efficacy was lowest in young children from Asia and young underweight children from Africa; a higher dose regimen should be assessed in these groups

Prior-predictive value from fast growth simulations

Building on a variant of the Jarzynski equation we propose a new method to numerically determine the prior-predictive value in a Bayesian inference problem. The method generalizes thermodynamic integration and is not hampered by equilibration problems. We demonstrate its operation by applying it to two simple examples and elucidate its performance. In the case of multi-modal posterior distributions the performance is superior to thermodynamic integration.Comment: 8 pages, 11 figure

Electron-correlation effects in appearance-potential spectra of Ni

Spin-resolved and temperature-dependent appearance-potential spectra of ferromagnetic Nickel are measured and analyzed theoretically. The Lander self-convolution model which relates the line shape to the unoccupied part of the local density of states turns out to be insufficient. Electron correlations and orbitally resolved transition-matrix elements are shown to be essential for a quantitative agreement between experiment and theory.Comment: LaTeX, 6 pages, 2 eps figures included, Phys. Rev. B (in press

Comparison of 3D transitional CFD simulations for rotating wind turbine wings with measurements:Paper

Since the investigation of van Ingen et al., attempts were undertaken to search for laminar parts within the boundary layer of wind turbines operating in the lower atmosphere with much higher turbulence levels than seen in wind tunnels or at higher altitudes where airplanes usually fly. Based on the results of the DAN-Aero experiment and the Aerodynamic Glove project, a special work package Boundary Layer Transition was embedded in IAEwind Task 29 MexNext 3rd phase (MN3). Here, we report on the results of the application of various CFD tools to predict transition on the MEXICO blade. In addition, recent results from a comparison of thermographic pictures (aimed at detecting transition) with 3D transitional CFD are included as well. The MEXICO (2006) and NEW MEXICO (2014) wind tunnel experiments on a turbine equipped with three 2.5 m blades have been described extensively in the literature. In addition, during MN3, high-frequency Kulite data from experiments were used to detect traces of transitional effects. Complementary, the following set of codes were applied to cases 1.1 and 1.2 (axial inflow with 10 m/s and 15 m/s respectively) – elsA, CFX, OpenFOAM (with 2 different turbulence/transitional models), Ellipsys, (with 2 different turbulence models and eN transition prediction tool), FLOWer and TAU – to search for detection of laminar parts by means of simulation. Obviously, the flow around a rotating blade is much more complicated than around a simple 2D section. Therefore, results for even integrated quantities like thrust and torque are varying strongly. Nevertheless, visible differences between fully turbulent and transitional set-ups are present. We discuss our findings, especially with respect to turbulence and transition models used

Fluctuations of company yearly profits versus scaled revenue: Fat tail distribution of Levy type

We analyze annual revenues and earnings data for the 500 largest-revenue U.S. companies during the period 1954-2007. We find that mean year profits are proportional to mean year revenues, exception made for few anomalous years, from which we postulate a linear relation between company expected mean profit and revenue. Mean annual revenues are used to scale both company profits and revenues. Annual profit fluctuations are obtained as difference between actual annual profit and its expected mean value, scaled by a power of the revenue to get a stationary behavior as a function of revenue. We find that profit fluctuations are broadly distributed having approximate power-law tails with a Levy-type exponent $\alpha \simeq 1.7$, from which we derive the associated break-even probability distribution. The predictions are compared with empirical data.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figure

Single-cell analysis reveals individual spore responses to simulated space vacuum

Outer space is a challenging environment for all forms of life, and dormant spores of bacteria have been frequently used to study the survival of terrestrial life in a space journey. Previous work showed that outer space vacuum alone can kill bacterial spores. However, the responses and mechanisms of resistance of individual spores to space vacuum are unclear. Here, we examined spores’ molecular changes under simulated space vacuum (~10−5 Pa) using micro-Raman spectroscopy and found that this vacuum did not cause significant denaturation of spore protein. Then, live-cell microscopy was developed to investigate the temporal events during germination, outgrowth, and growth of individual Bacillus spores. The results showed that after exposure to simulated space vacuum for 10 days, viability of spores of two Bacillus species was reduced up to 35%, but all spores retained their large Ca2 +-dipicolinic acid depot. Some of the killed spores did not germinate, and the remaining germinated but did not proceed to vegetative growth. The vacuum treatment slowed spore germination, and changed average times of all major germination events. In addition, viable vacuum-treated spores exhibited much greater sensitivity than untreated spores to dry heat and hyperosmotic stress. Among spores’ resistance mechanisms to high vacuum, DNA-protective α/β−type small acid-soluble proteins, and non- homologous end joining and base excision repair of DNA played the most important roles, especially against multiple cycles of vacuum treatment. Overall, these results give new insight into individual spore’s responses to space vacuum and provide new techniques for microorganism analysis at the single-cell level