Assessment of seasonal winter temperature forecast errors in the regcm model over northern Vietnam

This study verified the seasonal six-month forecasts for winter temperatures for northern Vietnam in 1998–2018 using a regional climate model (RegCM4) with the boundary conditions of the climate forecast system Version 2 (CFSv2) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). First, different physical schemes (land-surface process, cumulus, and radiation parameterizations) in RegCM4 were applied to generate 12 single forecasts. Second, the simple ensemble forecasts were generated through the combinations of those different physical formulations. Three subclimate regions (R1, R2, R3) of northern Vietnam were separately tested with surface observations and a reanalysis dataset (Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA55)). The highest sensitivity to the mean monthly temperature forecasts was shown by the land-surface parameterizations (the biosphere−atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS) and community land model version 4.5 (CLM)). The BATS forecast groups tended to provide forecasts with lower temperatures than the actual observations, while the CLM forecast groups tended to overestimate the temperatures. The forecast errors from single forecasts could be clearly reduced with ensemble mean forecasts, but ensemble spreads were less than those root-mean-square errors (RMSEs). This indicated that the ensemble forecast was underdispersed and that the direct forecast from RegCM4 needed more postprocessing

Seismic reflection evidence for a Dangerous Grounds miniplate: No extrusion origin for the South China Sea

The collision of India and Asia has caused large strike-slip faults to form in east Asia, resulting in the extrusion of crustal blocks toward the southeast since the Eocene as a result of the indentation of rigid India into Asia. It has been suggested that the South China Sea opened as a result of relative motion between a rigid Indochina (Sundaland) block and China. Alternative models propose that riffing and seafloor spreading were driven by trench forces to the south. We test these competing models by analysis of seismic reflection profiles across the boundary between Sundaland and the southern rifted margin, known as the Dangerous Grounds. We show that the southern boundary of the Dangerous Grounds is a subduction zone that jammed in the middle Miocene. To the west the Dangerous Grounds are bounded by a strike-slip zone, also active until ∼16 Ma, that becomes diffuse south of the now inactive South China Sea seafloor spreading center. We place the western edge of the Dangerous Grounds just to the east of the Natuna Arch (Lupar Line). The West Baram Line is confirmed as originating as a major strike-slip fault within the Dangerous Grounds and is continuous with the Red River Fault Zone. Because the Dangerous Grounds were independent of Sundaland until ∼16 Ma, its motion cannot have been constrained by motion of this block, making extrusion impossible as a mechanism to rift the South China Sea. SE motion by both the Dangerous Grounds and Sundaland suggests subduction forces were the primary trigger for plate motions. Our reconstruction places a ∼280 km upper limit on the motion on the Red River Fault and a ∼1400 km width to the paleo-South China Sea. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union

A New Approach and Tool in Verifying Asynchronous Circuits

Research in asynchronous circuit approach has been carried out recently when asynchronous circuits are presented more widely in electronic systems. As they are more important in human life, their correctness should be considered carefully. Although there are some EDA tools for design and synthesis of asynchronous circuits, they are lack of methods for verifying the correctness of the produced circuits. In this work, we are about to propose a verification method and apply it in making a new version of the PAiD tool that can enable engineers to design, synthesize and verify asynchronous circuits. Experiments in verifying circuits have been also provided in this work

The Life²Well Project: Investigating the Relationship between Physiological Stress and Environmental Factors through Data Science, the Internet of Things and Do-it-Yourself Wearables

This chapter reports a study conducted by students as an independent research project under the mentorship of a Research Scientist at the National Institute of Education, Singapore. In the Life2Well Project (Learning at the intersection of AI, physiology, EEG, our environment and well-being) identical units of a wearable device containing environmental sensors (such as ambient temperature, air pressure, infrared radiation and relative humidity) were designed and worn respectively by five adolescents from July to December 2021. Over the same period, data from these sensors was complemented by that obtained from smartwatches (namely blood oxygen saturation, heart rate and its variability, body temperature, respiration rate and sleep score). More than 40,000 data points were eventually collected, and were processed through a random forest regression model, which is a supervised learning algorithm that uses ensemble learning methods for regression. Results showed that the most influential microclimatic factors on biometric indicators were noise, and the concentrations of carbon dioxide and dust. Subsequently, more complex inferences were made from Shapley value interpretation of the regression models. Such findings suggest implications for the design of living conditions with respect to the interaction of microclimate and human health and comfort

Knowledge of Antiretroviral Treatment and Associated Factors in HIV-Infected Patients

This study aimed to assess the knowledge of antiretroviral (ARV) treatment and the associated factors in HIV-infected patients in Vietnam. We conducted a cross-sectional descriptive study of 350 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) patients being treated with ARV at outpatient clinics at Soc Trang, Vietnam, from June 2019 to December 2019. Using an interview questionnaire, patients who answered at least eight out of nine questions correctly, including some required questions, were considered to have a general knowledge of ARV treatment. Using multivariate logistic regression to identify factors associated with knowledge of ARV treatment, we found that 62% of HIV-infected patients had a general knowledge of ARV treatment, with a mean score of 8.2 (SD 1.4) out of 9 correct. A higher education level (p < 0.001); working away from home (p = 0.013); getting HIV transmitted by injecting drugs or from mother-to-child contact (p = 0.023); the presence of tension, anxiety, or stress (p = 0.005); self-reminding to take medication (p = 0.024); and a high self-evaluated adherence (p < 0.001) were found to be significantly associated with an adequate knowledge of ARV treatment. In conclusion, education programs for patients, as well as the quality of medical services and support, should be strengthened

Allogeneic human umbilical cord-derived mesenchymal stem/stromal cells for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD): study protocol for a matched case–control, phase I/II trial

Introduction The global prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is increasing, and it has become a major public health burden worldwide, including in Vietnam. A large body of preclinical and clinical studies supports the safety of mesenchymal stem/stromal cells (MSCs) in the treatment of lung injury, including COPD. The aim of this trial is to investigate the safety and potential therapeutic efficacy of allogeneic administration of umbilical cord-derived MSCs (UC-MSCs) as a supplementary intervention in combination with standard COPD medication treatments in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD based on the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2019 and Vietnam Ministry of Health's guidelines. Methods and analysis This matched case-control phase I/II trial is conducted at Vinmec Times City International Hospital, Hanoi, Vietnam between June 2020 and December 2021. In this study, 40 patients will be enrolled and assigned into two age-matched, gender-matched and COPD condition-matched groups, including a UC-MSC group and a control group. Both groups will receive standard COPD medication treatment based on the GOLD 2019 guidelines and the Vietnam Ministry of Health protocol. The UC-MSC group will receive two doses of thawed UC-MSC product with an intervention interval of 3 months. The primary outcome measures will include the incidence of prespecified administration-associated adverse events and serious adverse events. The efficacy will be evaluated based on the absolute changes in the number of admissions, arterial blood gas analysis, lung function and lung fibrosis via CT scan and chest X-ray. The clinical evaluation will be conducted at baseline and 3, 6 and 12 months postintervention. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval was secured from the Ethical Committee of Vinmec International Hospital (number:166/2019/Q -VMEC) and Vietnam Ministry of Health (number:2002/Q -BYT). The results will be reported to trial collaborators, publication in peer-reviewed academic journals. Trial registration number NCT04433104

Rapid assessment of Hib disease burden in Vietnam

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several countries have applied the <it>Haemophilus influenzae </it>type b (Hib) rapid assessment tool (RAT) to estimate the burden of Hib disease where resources for hospital- or population-based surveillance are limited. In Vietnam, we used the Hib RAT to estimate the burden of Hib pneumonia and meningitis prior to Hib vaccine introduction.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Laboratory, hospitalization and mortality data were collected for the period January 2004 through December 2005 from five representative hospitals. Based on the WHO Hib RAT protocol, standardized MS Excel spreadsheets were completed to generate meningitis and pneumonia case and death figures.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found 35 to 77 Hib meningitis deaths and 441 to 957 Hib pneumonia deaths among children < 5 years of age annually in Vietnam. Overall, the incidence of Hib meningitis was estimated at 18/100,000 (95% confidence interval, CI, 15.1-21.6). The estimated Hib meningitis incidence in children < 5 years age was higher in Ho Chi Minh City (22.5/100,000 [95% CI, 18.4-27.5]) compared to Hanoi (9.8/100,000 [95% CI, 6.5-14.8]). The Hib RAT suggests that there are a total of 883 to 1,915 cases of Hib meningitis and 4,414 to 9,574 cases of Hib pneumonia per year in Vietnam.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In Hanoi, the estimated incidence of Hib meningitis for children < 5 years of age was similar to that described in previous population-based studies of Hib meningitis conducted from 1999 through 2002. Results from the Hib RAT suggest that there is a substantial, yet unmeasured, disease burden associated with Hib pneumonia in Vietnamese children.</p

Spatiotemporal analysis of historical records (2001-2012) on dengue fever in Vietnam and development of a statistical model for forecasting risk

Background: Dengue fever is the most widespread infectious disease of humans transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. It is the leading cause of hospitalization and death in children in the Southeast Asia and western Pacific regions. We analyzed surveillance records from health centers in Vietnam collected between 2001–2012 to determine seasonal trends, develop risk maps and an incidence forecasting model. Methods: The data were analyzed using a hierarchical spatial Bayesian model that approximates its posterior parameter distributions using the integrated Laplace approximation algorithm (INLA). Meteorological, altitude and land cover (LC) data were used as predictors. The data were grouped by province (n = 63) and month (n = 144) and divided into training (2001–2009) and validation (2010–2012) sets. Thirteen meteorological variables, 7 land cover data and altitude were considered as predictors. Only significant predictors were kept in the final multivariable model. Eleven dummy variables representing month were also fitted to account for seasonal effects. Spatial and temporal effects were accounted for using Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) and autoregressive (1) models. Their levels of significance were analyzed using deviance information criterion (DIC). The model was validated based on the Theil’s coefficient which compared predicted and observed incidence estimated using the validation data. Dengue incidence predictions for 2010–2012 were also used to generate risk maps. Results: The mean monthly dengue incidence during the period was 6.94 cases (SD 14.49) per 100,000 people. Analyses on the temporal trends of the disease showed regular seasonal epidemics that were interrupted every 3 years (specifically in July 2004, July 2007 and September 2010) by major fluctuations in incidence. Monthly mean minimum temperature, rainfall, area under urban settlement/build-up areas and altitude were significant in the final model. Minimum temperature and rainfall had non-linear effects and lagging them by two months provided a better fitting model compared to using unlagged variables. Forecasts for the validation period closely mirrored the observed data and accurately captured the troughs and peaks of dengue incidence trajectories. A favorable Theil’s coefficient of inequality of 0.22 was generated. Conclusions: The study identified temperature, rainfall, altitude and area under urban settlement as being significant predictors of dengue incidence. The statistical model fitted the data well based on Theil’s coefficient of inequality, and risk maps generated from its predictions identified most of the high-risk provinces throughout the country

Financial Inclusion and Macroeconomic Stability in Emerging and Frontier Markets

Financial inclusion, being considered as a key enabler to reducing poverty and boosting prosperity in emerging and frontier markets such as Vietnam, is the process in which individuals and small businesses are provided with an access to useful and affordable financial products and services. The extant literature on the empirical evidence regarding the contribution of financial inclusion to macroeconomic stability is mixed. This paper investigates the linkages between financial inclusion and macroeconomic stability, which has not yet been thoroughly examined in the literature, for 22 emerging and frontier economies from 2008 to 2015, with particular focus on a potential optimal level. Using the panel threshold estimation technique, the empirical findings show that financial inclusion, as approximated by the growth rate in the number of bank branches over 100,000 account holders, is found to enhance financial stability under a certain threshold. Financial inclusion is also found to be of benefit to maintaining stable inflation and output growth. Policy implications are also discussed on the basis of the important empirical findings

Population density, water supply, and the risk of dengue fever in Vietnam: cohort study and spatial analysis.

BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km² prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary