Unreported exclusion and sampling bias in interpretation of randomized controlled trials in patients with STEMI

Aims: To assess the impact of sampling bias due to reported as well as unreported exclusion of the target population in a multi-center randomized controlled trial (RCT)of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Methods and Results: We compared clinical characteristics and mortality between participants in the DANAMI-3 trial to contemporary non-participants with STEMI using unselected registries. A total of 179 DANAMI-3 participants (8%)and 617 contemporary non-participants (22%)had died (Log-Rank: P < 0.001)after a median follow-up of 1333 days (range: 1–2021 days). In an unadjusted Cox regression model all groups of non-participants had a higher hazard ratio to predict mortality compared to participants: eligible excluded (n = 144)(hazard ratio: 3.41 (95% CI: (2.69–4.32)), ineligible excluded (n = 472)(hazard ratio: 3.42 (95% CI: (2.44–4.80), eligible non-screened (n = 154)(hazard ratio: 3.37 (95% CI: (2.36–4.82)), ineligible non-screened (n = 154)(hazard ratio: 6.48 (95% CI: (4.77–8.80). Conclusion: Sampling bias had occurred due to both reported and unreported exclusion of eligible patients and the difference in mortality between participants and non-participants could not be explained only by the trial exclusion criteria. Thus, screening logs may not be suited to address the risks of sampling bias

MR-proADM as a Prognostic Marker in Patients With ST-Segment-Elevation Myocardial Infarction - DANAMI-3 (a Danish Study of Optimal Acute Treatment of Patients With STEMI) Substudy

Background Midregional proadrenomedullin ( MR ‐pro ADM ) has demonstrated prognostic potential after myocardial infarction ( MI ). Yet, the prognostic value of MR ‐pro ADM at admission has not been examined in patients with ST‐segment–elevation MI ( STEMI ). Methods and Results The aim of this substudy, DANAMI‐3 (The Danish Study of Optimal Acute Treatment of Patients with ST ‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction), was to examine the associations of admission concentrations of MR ‐pro ADM with short‐ and long‐term mortality and hospital admission for heart failure in patients with ST ‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction. Outcomes were assessed using Cox proportional hazard models and area under the curve using receiver operating characteristics. In total, 1122 patients were included. The median concentration of MR ‐pro ADM was 0.64 nmol/L (25th–75th percentiles, 0.53–0.79). Within 30 days 23 patients (2.0%) died and during a 3‐year follow‐up 80 (7.1%) died and 38 (3.4%) were admitted for heart failure. A doubling of MR ‐pro ADM was, in adjusted models, associated with an increased risk of 30‐day mortality (hazard ratio, 2.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.01–7.11; P =0.049), long‐term mortality (hazard ratio, 3.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.97–5.29; P &lt;0.0001), and heart failure (hazard ratio, 2.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.32–5.58; P =0.007). For 30‐day and 3‐year mortality, the area under the curve for MR ‐pro ADM was 0.77 and 0.78, respectively. For 3‐year mortality, area under the curve (0.84) of the adjusted model marginally changed (0.85; P =0.02) after addition of MR ‐pro ADM . Conclusions Elevation of admission MR ‐pro ADM was associated with long‐term mortality and heart failure, whereas the association with short‐term mortality was borderline significant. MR ‐pro ADM may be a marker of prognosis after ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction but does not seem to add substantial prognostic information to established clinical models. Clinical Trial Registration URL : http:/www.ClinicalTrials.gov /. Unique identifiers: NCT 01435408 and NCT 01960933. </jats:sec

Anthropometric measures and long‐term mortality in non‐ischaemic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: Questioning the obesity paradox

Aims: Although body mass index (BMI) is the most commonly used anthropometric measure to assess adiposity, alternative indices such as the waist‐to‐height ratio may better reflect the location and amount of ectopic fat as well as the weight of the skeleton. Methods and results: The prognostic value of several alternative anthropometric measures was compared with that of BMI in 1116 patients with non‐ischaemic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) enrolled in DANISH. The association between anthropometric measures and all‐cause death was adjusted for prognostic variables, including natriuretic peptides. Median follow‐up was 9.5 years (25th–75th percentile, 7.9–10.9). Compared to patients with a BMI 18.5–24.9 kg/m2 (n = 363), those with a BMI ≥25 kg/m2 had a higher risk of all‐cause and cardiovascular death, although this association was only statistically significant for a BMI ≥35 kg/m2 (n = 91) (all‐cause death: hazard ratio [HR] 1.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28–2.48; cardiovascular death: HR 2.46, 95% CI 1.69–3.58). Compared to a BMI 18.5–24.9 kg/m2, a BMI &lt;18.5 kg/m2 (n = 24) was associated with a numerically, but not a significantly, higher risk of all‐cause and cardiovascular death. Greater waist‐to‐height ratio (as an exemplar of indices not incorporating weight) was also associated with a higher risk of all‐cause and cardiovascular death (HR for the highest vs. the lowest quintile: all‐cause death: HR 2.11, 95% CI 1.53–2.92; cardiovascular death: HR 2.17, 95% CI 1.49–3.15). Conclusion: In patients with non‐ischaemic HFrEF, there was a clear association between greater adiposity and higher long‐term mortality. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00542945