Mutual interventions in Africa

Global datasets on interstate armed conflict suggest that African states clash with each other rarely and only for short periods. This research note shows that existing datasets paint a misleading picture. In fact, African states fight each other more often and for longer than is commonly thought, but they do so by mutually intervening in each other’s intrastate conflicts. Instead of relying solely on their own armed forces, they support their rival’s armed opposition groups. Such mutual interventions—most prevalent in Africa but also evident in other regions—thus span the boundaries of interstate and intrastate conflict. As a result, they have been largely overlooked by conflict scholars. Our note conceptualizes mutual intervention as a distinct form of interstate conflict, comparing and contrasting it with concepts like proxy war, competitive intervention, and international rivalry. The note then presents the first systematic survey of mutual interventions across the African continent. We identify twenty-three cases between 1960 and 2010 and demonstrate that they typically ended independently of their associated intrastate conflicts. We conclude with a research agenda that involves studying the onset, duration, termination, and consequences of mutual interventions, including collecting data on mutual interventions outside Africa to explore cross-regional differences.PostprintPeer reviewe

EFFECTS OF CHINESE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

As China continues to grow as a global power, its wealth and influence has expanded into developing countries through Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). These investments have been throughout developing countries in primary sectors and infrastructure such as the Belts and Road Initiative, spreading throughout the Middle East and Africa. Because of the question of stability in developing countries, civil conflicts can become volatile for a developing country and can be exacerbated with the presence of foreign investments. With this research, I hope to understand the effects Chinese intervention has on developing countries as it relates to civil conflicts. Because of China’s foreign policy of non-interference, history of avoiding acknowledgement of human rights violations, and noncompliance in international politics, I theorized that Chinese FDI in a developing country raises the probability of armed conflict occurrence and intensity in the target country. To test this, data were collected on foreign direct investments given to developing countries by major powers such as the United States, United Kingdom, France, and China to determine if Chinese investments are more volatile to developing countries compared to its western counterparts

What’s Law Got To Do With It? How The Degree of Legalization Affects The Durability Of Post-Conflict Autonomy Agreements

Research has identified several factors that impact the sustainability of post-conflict territorial autonomy arrangements (TAA), including previous levels of violence, economic development in a given territory, or the strategic importance thereof. We argue that a hitherto neglected variable lies in the legal form of the autonomy agreement – that is, the degree to which it has been ‘legalized’ by the language and processes prescribed in the agreement. Based on a qualitative evaluation, we assess the legalization degree of 236 TAA signed between 1990 and 2019. Survival analyses and Cox regression models show that a higher degree of legalization has a positive and significant effect on peace durability

Peacebuilding in Africa

research repor

It’s no secret : the overtness of external support and rebel-civilian interactions in civil wars

Existe-t-il un lien entre le degré de publicité du soutien fourni par des États à des groupes rebelles et les relations entre les insurgés soutenus et les civils durant les guerres internes ? Les études sur les conflits examinent de plus en plus la manière dont un soutien étatique externe à des insurgés locaux façonne le comportement de ces derniers. Cependant, la littérature néglige l’influence de la décision des États-soutiens de nier ou reconnaître leur aide sur la conduite des rebelles. Divisée en trois parties, ma thèse de doctorat utilise une méthodologie mixte alliant analyses quantitatives et études de cas qualitatives pour combler cette lacune dans la littérature. L’Article 1 présente de nouvelles données sur le degré de publicité du soutien étatique aux rebelles durant les guerres civiles entre 1989 et 2018. Il montre ensuite que cette variable est négativement corrélée à la propension des insurgés à user de la violence envers les non-combattants. L’Article 2 commence par présenter une théorie expliquant comment, pourquoi et dans quelles circonstances les États-soutiens tentent-ils de superviser les interactions avec les non-combattants des insurgés qu’ils appuient lors des guerres civiles. Il applique ensuite ce cadre théorique au soutien des États-Unis aux Unités de protection du peuple (YPG) et aux Forces démocratiques syriennes (FDS) dans le nord-est de la Syrie entre 2014 et 2020. L’Article 3 montre qu’en plus d’être corrélé négativement à la violence rebelle envers les civils, le degré de publicité du soutien étatique aux insurgés est corrélé positivement à la propension de ces derniers à fournir des services à la population. Il nuance ensuite les résultats statistiques en montrant que l’existence d’institutions formelles de fourniture de services n’équivaut pas nécessairement à une participation effective des civils à l’exercice du pouvoir en zones rebelles. Ainsi, la thèse met en évidence le lien critique entre le degré de publicité du soutien étatique aux rebelles et les interactions entre insurgés soutenus et civils. Les résultats de recherche montrent dès lors que les expériences des non-combattants au cours de conflits qualifiés d’internes à un espace sont corrélés à des facteurs et intérêts liés à des acteurs externes à ce même territoire.What is the relationship between the overtness of state support to rebels and the nature of insurgent-civilian interactions during civil wars? Conflict studies increasingly examine how external support to local insurgents influences rebel behavior. However, the literature neglects the link between the state sponsors’ decisions to acknowledge or deny their support and insurgent behavior. My three-part doctoral dissertation uses a mixed-methods research design combining quantitative analyses and qualitative case studies to address this gap in the literature. Article 1 introduces new data on the overtness of external support to rebels during civil wars between 1989 and 2018. The paper then shows that this variable negatively correlates with the propensity of the insurgents to target civilians. Article 2 begins by outlining a theory of how, why, and when the state sponsors monitor the interactions with civilians of the insurgents they support. The paper then applies this theoretical framework to the United States’ (US) support for the People’s Defense Units (YPG) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Northeast Syria between 2014 and 2020. Article 3 shows that in addition to negatively correlating with civilian targeting, the overtness of external support to rebels positively correlates with the propensity of the insurgents to provide social services during civil wars. The paper then qualifies the statistical results by showing that the creation of formal social service institutions by the rebels does not necessarily lead to effective civilian participation in decision-making in insurgent areas. The dissertation thus highlights the critical link between the overtness of state support to rebels and the insurgent-civilian interactions. In this way, I show that civilian experiences during conflicts we characterize as internal to a territory correlate with factors and interests linked to external actors

United Nations Peace Initiatives 1946-2015: Introducing a New Dataset

The United Nations (UN) has developed a complex and interconnected system of committees, representatives, and missions in support of its peace and security mandate. This article introduces the United Nations Peace Initiatives (UNPI) data set, which provides information on 469 UN initiatives aimed at conflict prevention and crisis management, mediation, peacekeeping, and peacebuilding. The data encompass all initiatives mandated by the UN Security Council, the General Assembly, as well as Secretary General between 1946 and 2015. This includes diplomatic, technocratic, political-development, and peacekeeping missions. UNPI data provide an empirical basis to assess the relative contributions of various UN subsidiary bodies to prevent, manage, and suppress the outbreak and recurrence of conflict. This article discusses the underlying rationale of the data collection, the coding rules, and procedures, and shows how UNPI can be combined with conflict data. Initial analyses show the increased use of different types of UN peace initiatives over time. The UN regularly deploys multiple peace initiatives to a dispute, often with significant periods of overlap. Ongoing hostilities and economic development are found to be key determinants of mission choice. In line with the theme of the Special Issue, the UNPI data set underscores the importance of, and provides a tool through which to examine the, interdependencies between various conflict management efforts

Master of Arts

thesisA nuanced understanding of negotiation is essential to combating civil wars, transnational challenges to order, and threatening nonstate actors in the global political arena. This quantitative study goes beyond structural explanations and evaluations of negotiations as mere outcomes to explore the processes and factors that cause nonstate armed groups in civil wars to pursue negotiations sooner. With the use of data on all civil wars from 1946-2011, this study utilizes competing risks survival analysis to demonstrate the relative importance of cultural loyalty to the local population, governing ambitions in the area, and assistance from a third party in the timing of negotiation pursuit by rebel groups. The central findings suggest that, regardless of a nonstate armed group's strength relative to the state, having an outside backer or the goal of defending a cultural identity is associated with earlier attempts at negotiation, while access to lootable resources appears to delay settlement pursuit

Conflicto y Violencia: Elementos para comprender el conflicto violento

This article seeks to draw attention to some elements that are necessary to understand theformation and development of a violent conflict, seeking to consolidate these importantelements for the analysis of this phenomenon. In order to delineate these elements, thisarticle is divided into three sections. The first section deals with the Conflict Resolutionas a field of study, drawing attention to its elements. The second section discusses theconception of violence and its relationship with conflict. Finally, the third section outlinesimportant elements to be considered when carrying out the analysis of a violent conflict,drawing attention to the necessary multidimensionality of this analysis.Este artigo busca chamar a atenção para alguns elementos necessários para se compreendera formação e a dinamização do conflito violento, buscando consolidar tais elementosimportantes para a análise deste fenômeno. De modo a delinear tais elementos, este artigoestá dividido em três seções. A primeira seção trata do campo de estudo de Resolução deConflitos, chamando a atenção para seus elementos. A segunda seção discute a concepção daviolência e a relação com o conflito. Por fim, a terceira seção delineia elementos importantesa serem considerados ao se realizar a análise de um conflito violento, chamando a atençãopara a necessária multidimensionalidade desta análise.Este artículo busca llamar la atención sobre algunos elementos necesarios para comprender la formación y la dinamización del conflicto violento, buscando consolidar estos elementos importantes para el análisis de este fenómeno. Para delimitar estos elementos, este artículo se divide en tres secciones. La primera sección trata sobre el campo de estudio de la Resolución de Conflictos, llamando la atención sobre sus elementos. La segunda sección discute la concepción de la violencia y su relación con el conflicto. Finalmente, la tercera sección esboza elementos importantes a considerar al momento de realizar el análisis de un conflicto violento, llamando la atención sobre la necesaria multidimensionalidad de análisis

Peacekeeping as Conflict Containment

A rich literature has developed focusing on the efficacy of peacekeeping operations (PKOs) in a temporal sense - asking whether the periods following a deployment are more peaceful or not. We know less about the efficacy of PKOs in a spatial sense. Can peacekeeping shape the geographic dispersion of particular episodes of violence? We posit that PKOs can contain conflict by decreasing the tactical advantage of mobility for the rebels, by obstructing the movement of armed actors, and by altering the ability for governments to seek and confront rebel actors. We investigate the observable implications using georeferenced conflict polygons from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program's (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset (GED). Our findings confirm that PKOs tend to decrease movement in the conflict polygons, especially when robust forces are deployed and when rebel groups have strong ethnic ties. Our findings, on the one hand, imply that PKOs reduce the geographic scope of violence. On the other hand, PKOs may allow nonstate actors to gain strength and legitimacy and thus constitute an even greater future threat to the state whether some form of accord is not reached