Monetary and Fiscal Management, Finance, and Growth

This lecture addresses three related aspects of monetary and fiscal management in Europe and elsewhere. First, I discuss the implications of economic integration for monetary and fiscal policy, especially the narrow focus on low inflation as the main objective of monetary policy. I argue that because inflation springs from several sources, monetary authorities held responsible by law for maintaining low inflation need to exercise their newfound independence by reserving the right to address all sources of inflation. In this context, I also ponder the question whether increased independence of fiscal policy from short-term political interference would be desirable. Second, I present new empirical evidence of the relationship between inflation, finance, and economic growth across countries, arguing that long-run growth considerations provide an important additional justification for why price stability ought to remain a priority of independent policy makers. Third, I review some further aspects of the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth, emphasizing the traditional three-pronged role of fiscal management: stabilization, allocation, and distribution, all of which can be conducive to growth. The argument leads to the conclusion that only the stabilization function of fiscal policy and perhaps also some aspects of the allocation function could be usefully delegated in an attempt to immunize them from shortsighted and socially counter-productive political interference, but not the distribution function.

Iceland: After the Fall

Iceland’s three main financial institutions, which accounted for 85 percent of its banking system, crashed within a single week in October 2008. All three (along with the government that had encouraged their forays into the Himalayas of global finance) claimed that they were merely pawns caught in Wall Street’s nefarious games. But the truth is more sobering. For this crisis has exposed the fundamental weakness of Iceland’s economic and political cultures, which are hobbled by institutions more akin to those of the Third World than the First.

Natural Resources and Economic Growth: What Is the Connection?

This paper reviews the relationship between natural resources and economic growth, and stresses how natural capital tends to crowd out foreign capital, social capital, human capital, andphysical capital, thereby impeding economic growth across countries and presumably also over time. Specifically, the paper presents empirical evidence that nations with abundant natural capital tend to have (a) less trade and foreign investment, (b) more corruption, (c) less education, and (d) less domestic investment than other nations that are less well endowed with, or less dependent on, natural resources. This matters for growth because empirical evidence also indicates that trade, honesty, education, and investment are all positively and significantly related to economic growth across countries.Natural resources, economic growth

The International Economics of Natural Resources and Growth

This article is in three parts. First, it briefly describes the contribution of natural resources to economic growth around the world, pondering the question whether an abundance of natural resources is a blessing or a curse. Second, an attempt is made to provide a glimpse of recent empirical evidence that can be brought to bear on this question. Third, the article discusses the experience of Norway, the world’s third largest oil exporter. To date, Norway has appeared to be mostly free of the worrisome symptoms, such as the Dutch disease, that have afflicted many other countries with abundant natural resources.

Inequality and Economic Growth: Do Natural Resources Matter?

This paper is intended to demonstrate, in theory as well as empirically, how increased dependence on natural resources tends to go along with less rapid economic growth and greater inequality in the distribution of income across countries. On the other hand, public policy in support of education can simultaneously enhance equality and growth by raising the return to working in higher technology (that is, nonprimary) industries and thus counter some of the potentially adverse effects of excessive natural resource dependence. Together, these two variables – natural resources and education – can help account for the inverse relationship between inequality and growth observed in cross-country data. Moreover, the analysis highlights the role of public revenue policy. Taxes and fees can be used to reduce the attractiveness of primary-sector employment, lift the marginal productivity of capital in higher technology industries and thus increase the rate of interest and economic growth, while reducing the inequality of income and wealth.

Resource Rents, Democracy and Corruption: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

We examine the effect of the interaction between resource rents and democracy on corruption for a panel of 29 Sub-Saharan countries during the period from 1985 to 2007. We find that higher resource rents lead to more corruption and that the effect is significantly stronger in less democratic countries. Surprisingly, we also find that higher resource rents lead to fewer internal conflicts and that less democratic countries face not a higher but a lower likelihood of conflicts following an increase in resource rents. We argue that these findings can be explained by the ability of the political elites in less democratic countries to more effectively quell the masses through redistribution of rents to the public. We support our argument by documenting that higher resource rents lead to more (less) government spending in less (more) democratic countries. Our findings suggest that the mechanisms through which resource rents affect corruption cannot be separated from political systems.resource rents, corruption, political systems, internal conflicts

Natural Resources And Economic Growth: The Role Of Investment

This paper begins by a brief review of empirical evidence that seems to indicate that economic growth since 1965 has varied inversely with natural resource abundance or intensity across countries. The paper then proposes a new linkage between natural resources and economic growth, through saving and investment. When the share of output that accrues to the owners of natural resources rises, the demand for capital falls and this leads to lower real interest rates and less rapid growth. Moreover, the analysis shows that the discrepancy between the privately and socially optimal rates of growth increases with the natural capital share. Empirical evidence from 85 countries from 1965 to 1998 suggests that natural capital may on average crowd out physical as well as human capital, thereby inhibiting economic growth. The results also suggest that, across countries, heavy dependence on natural resources may hurt saving and investment indirectly by slowing down the development of the financial system.

Commodity Price Volatility, Democracy and Economic Growth

We use a new dataset on non-resource GDP to examine the impact of commodity price volatility on economic growth in a panel of up to 158 countries during the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that commodity price volatility leads to a significant increase in non-resource GDP growth in democracies, but to no significant increase in autocracies. To explain this result, we show that increased commodity price volatility leads to a statistically significant and quantitatively large increase in net national saving in democracies. In autocracies, on the other hand, net national saving decreased significantly. Our results hold true when using indicators capturing the quality of economic institutions in lieu of indicators of political institutions.commodity prices, volatility, democracy, economic growth

Education, Social Equality and Economic Growth: A View of the Landscape

Education has been one of the key determinants of economic growth around the world since 1965. In this paper, we discuss three different measures of education, and consider their relationship to the distribution of income as measured by the Gini coefficient as well as to economic growth across countries. The three measures are: (a) gross secondary-school enrolment, (b) public expenditure on education relative to national income and (c) expected years of schooling for girls. We show that all three measures of education are directly related to income equality across countries. In a sample of 87 countries at all income levels, we also find that more and better education appears to encourage economic growth directly as well as indirectly through increased social equality and cohesion. Our regression results survive the introduction of regional dummy variables for Africa, Asia and Central and South America. We argue that the empirical relationship between education, on the one hand, and growth and equality, on the other hand, can help account for the positive correlation between the two latter variables that has been documented in the literature.

Natural Resources and Economic Growth: The Role of Investment

Is it possible that relying too heavily on natural resources affects saving and investment in a way that hampers economic growth? – and thus, in the long run, the level of output per capita. This paper reviews the literature, explores the data and compares and contrasts the explanatory power and interplay of natural resources and civil liberties, our proxy for institutional variables currently under scrutiny in the literature. We propose that natural resources may be viewed as an exogenous factor that hampers economic development and investment as well as institutions.Economic growth, natural resources, investment