The Strength of Instability: Voter Volatility in Slovak General Election, 2016

Electoral behavior in Slovakia is characterized by high instability. The study identifies the level of aggregated and individual volatility from a historical perspective, focusing specifically on the 2016 general election. Based on exit-poll data, it argues that the traditional mainstream parties (KDH, SDKU, which failed to surpass the 5% threshold, and also Smer-SD) have lost many of their loyal core voters. The beneficiaries of voter mobility were the new anti-system parties – above all, We Are A Family and the extreme-right People’s Party Our Slovakia (ĽSNS). The paper identifies a specific segment of the electorate – voters who abstained in 2012 but were mobilized for the more recent election. It argues that as the turnouts were about the same in 2012 and 2016, other segments of voters were mobilized in the 2016 election. The fact that a large proportion of these voters decided for the parties We Are A Family and ĽSNS means that they were effectively addressed by a protest, anti-establishment alternative. Based on exit-poll data, the study argues that the level of abstention in the 2012 general election (excluding first-time voters) was the strongest predictor of voter preference for these two parties. Moreover, the extreme-right ĽSNS has been very successful in attracting first-time voters