Does the Expectation Hypothesis Hold at the Shortest End of the Term Structure?

This paper examines the predictability smile at the shortest end of the term structure. The existence of a predictability smile has been well documented: spreads between long rates and short rates are able to forecast subsequent movements in interest rates well, provided the horizon is three months or less or two years or more. The predictive power of the spread at the shortest maturities, however, has not been adequately investigated. This is a potential shortcoming of the existing literature as a projection of the predictability smile to the shorter maturities is not a guarantee that the expectations hypothesis holds. In Japan, a positive spread between the forward and the spot rates has insufficient predictive power for the future spot rate innovations, while a negative spread has near-perfect predictive ability. Further, we provide evidence that this result is not unique to Japan, as we find this "asymmetric predictability" to be a feature of the very short-term money markets of the U.S., U.K. and Italy.Term Structure, Predictability, Money Market

The Effectiveness of Public Credit Guarantees in the Japanese Loan Market

This paper examines the effectiveness of public credit guarantee programs in not only increasing the availability of loans to small and medium enterprises (SMEs), but in also improving the ex-post performance of borrowing firms. Using a unique panel data set, we identify the effects of a massive credit guarantee program implemented by the Japanese government from 1998-2001. While we do find that the availability of loans increased for program participants, when loans were provided by undercapitalized banks the increased liquidity persisted for only a few years. Further, the ex-post performance of program participants, with the exception of firms with sizable net worth, deteriorated relative to their non-participating counterparts.Credit crunch, Small and Medium Enterprises, Loan guarantees, Matching estimation

On the Relationship Between the Very Short Forward and the Spot Interest Rate

In this paper we revisit the relationship between the forward interest rate and the spot interest rate at the shortest maturities. We introduce a new set of very short forward and spot interest rates that have not been fully utilized in the literature: the "tomorrow next" rate and the "spot next" rate, both of which have the same maturity as the overnight rate. Using these interest rates we demonstrate an asymmetric predictability of the forward interest rate. This asymmetry, which we find to be robust across different money markets, depends on whether the forward rate is greater or less than the current spot rate. Money market institutions, such as a penalty for end of day overdrafts, and the inability of securities firms to procure funds in certain markets may explain the asymmetry.

How Trade Credit Differs from Loans: Evidence from Japanese Trading Companies

In this paper we examine the determinants of the relationship between trade credit and bank loans. Previous studies of this relationship fall into two categories: (1) those emphasizing the difference between financial and non-financial institutions, and (2) those emphasizing the difference between credit instruments. By using data on trading companies that supply both loans and trade credit we are able to determine the relative importance of both institutional differences and instrumental differences for the trade credit-loan relationship. We find that trade credit and loans differ significantly even when offered by the same institutions, while loans extended by financial institutions and those extended by non-financial enterprises respond similarly.

Effectiveness of Credit Guarantees in the Japanese Loan Market

From 1998-2001, the Japanese government, in an effort to stimulate the flow of funds to the small business sector, implemented a massive credit guarantee program that was unprecedented in both scale and scope. Because the program was accessible by nearly every small firm we are able to clearly identify the policy effect. The program, therefore, presents a unique opportunity to determine if government intervention can improve the efficiency of credit allocation among bank-dependent small businesses. Utilizing a new panel data set of Japanese firms, which covers the implementation period of the program, we empirically test the theoretical predictions of Mankiw's (1986) adverse selection model. The model of credit markets under asymmetric information allows us to investigate whether government credit programs do more to stimulate small business investment, or serve to worsen the adverse selection problems prevalent in credit markets. We find evidence consistent with the former hypothesis. Specifically, we find that (1) program participants significantly increase their leverage, especially their use of long-term loans, and (2) with the exception of high-risk firms, become more efficient.

Effectiveness of Credit Guarantees in the Japanese Loan Market (経済研究所創立20周年記念号)

From 1998-2001, the Japanese government, in an effort to stimulate the flow of funds to the small business sector, implemented a massive credit guarantee program that was unprecedented in both scale and scope. Because the program was accessible by nearly every small firm we are able to clearly identify the policy effect. The program, therefore, presents a unique opportunity to determine if government intervention in credit markets can improve the efficiency of credit allocation among bank-dependent small businesses. Utilizing a new panel data set of Japanese small businesses we empirically test the theoretical predictions of Mankiw\u27s (1986) adverse selection model. We investigate whether government credit programs do more to stimulate small business investment, or serve to worsen the adverse selection problems prevalent in credit markets. We find evidence consistent with the former hypothesis. Specifically, program participants (1) significantly increase their leverage, especially their use of long-term loans, and (2), with the exception of high-risk firms, become more efficient

31st Annual Meeting and Associated Programs of the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC 2016) : part two

Background The immunological escape of tumors represents one of the main ob- stacles to the treatment of malignancies. The blockade of PD-1 or CTLA-4 receptors represented a milestone in the history of immunotherapy. However, immune checkpoint inhibitors seem to be effective in specific cohorts of patients. It has been proposed that their efficacy relies on the presence of an immunological response. Thus, we hypothesized that disruption of the PD-L1/PD-1 axis would synergize with our oncolytic vaccine platform PeptiCRAd. Methods We used murine B16OVA in vivo tumor models and flow cytometry analysis to investigate the immunological background. Results First, we found that high-burden B16OVA tumors were refractory to combination immunotherapy. However, with a more aggressive schedule, tumors with a lower burden were more susceptible to the combination of PeptiCRAd and PD-L1 blockade. The therapy signifi- cantly increased the median survival of mice (Fig. 7). Interestingly, the reduced growth of contralaterally injected B16F10 cells sug- gested the presence of a long lasting immunological memory also against non-targeted antigens. Concerning the functional state of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), we found that all the immune therapies would enhance the percentage of activated (PD-1pos TIM- 3neg) T lymphocytes and reduce the amount of exhausted (PD-1pos TIM-3pos) cells compared to placebo. As expected, we found that PeptiCRAd monotherapy could increase the number of antigen spe- cific CD8+ T cells compared to other treatments. However, only the combination with PD-L1 blockade could significantly increase the ra- tio between activated and exhausted pentamer positive cells (p= 0.0058), suggesting that by disrupting the PD-1/PD-L1 axis we could decrease the amount of dysfunctional antigen specific T cells. We ob- served that the anatomical location deeply influenced the state of CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes. In fact, TIM-3 expression was in- creased by 2 fold on TILs compared to splenic and lymphoid T cells. In the CD8+ compartment, the expression of PD-1 on the surface seemed to be restricted to the tumor micro-environment, while CD4 + T cells had a high expression of PD-1 also in lymphoid organs. Interestingly, we found that the levels of PD-1 were significantly higher on CD8+ T cells than on CD4+ T cells into the tumor micro- environment (p < 0.0001). Conclusions In conclusion, we demonstrated that the efficacy of immune check- point inhibitors might be strongly enhanced by their combination with cancer vaccines. PeptiCRAd was able to increase the number of antigen-specific T cells and PD-L1 blockade prevented their exhaus- tion, resulting in long-lasting immunological memory and increased median survival

The Effectiveness of Public Credit Guarantees in the Japanese Loan Market

This paper examines the effectiveness of public credit guarantee programs in not only increasing the availability of loans to small and medium enterprises (SMEs), but in also improving the ex-post performance of borrowing firms. Using a unique panel data set, we identify the effects of a massive credit guarantee program implemented by the Japanese government from 1998 to 2001. While we do find that the availability of loans increased for program participants, when loans were provided by undercapitalized banks the increased liquidity persisted for only a few years. Further, the ex-post performance of program participants, with the exception of firms with sizable net worth, deteriorated relative to their non-participating counterparts.Credit crunch Loan guarantees Matching estimation Small and medium enterprises