Probably Approximately Knowing

Whereas deterministic protocols are typically guaranteed to obtain particular goals of interest, probabilistic protocols typically provide only probabilistic guarantees. This paper initiates an investigation of the interdependence between actions and subjective beliefs of agents in a probabilistic setting. In particular, we study what probabilistic beliefs an agent should have when performing actions, in a protocol that satisfies a probabilistic constraint of the form: 'Condition C should hold with probability at least p when action a is performed'. Our main result is that the expected degree of an agent's belief in C when it performs a equals the probability that C holds when a is performed. Indeed, if the threshold of the probabilistic constraint should hold with probaility p=1-x^2 for some small value of x then, with probability 1-x, when the agent acts it will assign a probabilistic belief no smaller than 1-x to the possibility that C holds. In other words, viewing strong belief as, intuitively, approximate knowledge, the agent must probably approximately know (PAK-know) that C is true when it acts.Comment: 23 pages, 2 figures, a full version of a paper whose extended abstract appears in the proceeding of PODC 202

Towards Logical Specification of Statistical Machine Learning

We introduce a logical approach to formalizing statistical properties of machine learning. Specifically, we propose a formal model for statistical classification based on a Kripke model, and formalize various notions of classification performance, robustness, and fairness of classifiers by using epistemic logic. Then we show some relationships among properties of classifiers and those between classification performance and robustness, which suggests robustness-related properties that have not been formalized in the literature as far as we know. To formalize fairness properties, we define a notion of counterfactual knowledge and show techniques to formalize conditional indistinguishability by using counterfactual epistemic operators. As far as we know, this is the first work that uses logical formulas to express statistical properties of machine learning, and that provides epistemic (resp. counterfactually epistemic) views on robustness (resp. fairness) of classifiers.Comment: SEFM'19 conference paper (full version with errors corrected

Before it is too late: professional responsibilities in late-onset Alzheimer's research and pre-symptomatic prediction

The development of a wide array of molecular and neuroscientific biomarkers can provide the possibility to visualize the course of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) at early stages. Many of these biomarkers are aimed at detecting not only a preclinical, but also a pre-symptomatic state. They are supposed to facilitate clinical trials aiming at treatments that attack the disease at its earliest stage or even prevent it. The increasing number of such biomarkers currently tested and now partly proposed for clinical implementation calls for critical reflection on their aims, social benefits, and risks. This position paper summarizes major challenges and responsibilities. Its focus is on the ethical and social problems involved in the organization and application of dementia research, as well as in healthcare provision from a cross-national point of view. The paper is based on a discussion of leading dementia experts from neuroscience, neurology, social sciences, and bioethics in the United States and Europe. It thus reflects a notable consensus across various disciplines and national backgrounds. We intend to initiate a debate on the need for actions within the researchers’ national and international communities

A history based logic for dynamic preference updates

History based models suggest a process-based approach to epistemic and temporal reasoning. In this work, we introduce preferences to history based models. Motivated by game theoretical observations, we discuss how preferences can dynamically be updated in history based models. Following, we consider arrow update logic and event calculus, and give history based models for these logics. This allows us to relate dynamic logics of history based models to a broader framework

Pregnancy Incidence and Correlates during the HVTN 503 Phambili HIV Vaccine Trial Conducted among South African Women

HIV prevention trials are increasingly being conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. Women at risk for HIV are also at risk of pregnancy. To maximize safety, women agree to avoid pregnancy during trials, yet pregnancies occur. Using data from the HVTN 503/"Phambili" vaccine trial, we report pregnancy incidence during and after the vaccination period and identify factors, measured at screening, associated with incident pregnancy.To enrol in the trial, women agreed and were supported to avoid pregnancy until 1 month after their third and final vaccination ("vaccination period"), corresponding to the first 7 months of follow-up. Unsterilized women, pooled across study arms, were analyzed. Poisson regression compared pregnancy rates during and after the vaccination period. Cox proportional hazards regression identified associations with first pregnancy.Among 352 women (median age 23 yrs; median follow-up 1.5 yrs), pregnancy incidence was 9.6/100 women-years overall and 6.8/100 w-yrs and 11.3/100 w-yrs during and after the vaccination period, respectively [Rate Ratio = 0.60 (0.32-1.14), p = 0.10]. In multivariable analysis, pregnancy was reduced among women who: enrolled at sites providing contraception on-site [HR = 0.43, 95% CI (0.22-0.86)]; entered the trial as injectable contraceptive users [HR = 0.37 (0.21-0.67)] or as consistent condom users (trend) [HR = 0.54 (0.28-1.04)]. Compared with women with a single partner of HIV-unknown status, pregnancy rates were increased among women with: a single partner whose status was HIV-negative [HR = 2.34(1.16-4.73)] and; 2 partners both of HIV-unknown status [HR = 4.42(1.59-12.29)]. Women with 2 more of these risk factors: marijuana use, heavy drinking, or use of either during sex, had increased pregnancy incidence [HR = 2.66 (1.24-5.72)].It is possible to screen South African women for pregnancy risk at trial entry. Providing injectable contraception for free on-site and supporting consistent condom use may reduce incident pregnancy. Screening should determine the substance use, partnering, and HIV status of both members of the couple for both pregnancy and HIV prevention.SA National Health Research Database DOH-27-0207-1539; Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00413725

Single cell dissection of plasma cell heterogeneity in symptomatic and asymptomatic myeloma

Multiple myeloma, a plasma cell malignancy, is the second most common blood cancer. Despite extensive research, disease heterogeneity is poorly characterized, hampering efforts for early diagnosis and improved treatments. Here, we apply single cell RNA sequencing to study the heterogeneity of 40 individuals along the multiple myeloma progression spectrum, including 11 healthy controls, demonstrating high interindividual variability that can be explained by expression of known multiple myeloma drivers and additional putative factors. We identify extensive subclonal structures for 10 of 29 individuals with multiple myeloma. In asymptomatic individuals with early disease and in those with minimal residual disease post-treatment, we detect rare tumor plasma cells with molecular characteristics similar to those of active myeloma, with possible implications for personalized therapies. Single cell analysis of rare circulating tumor cells allows for accurate liquid biopsy and detection of malignant plasma cells, which reflect bone marrow disease. Our work establishes single cell RNA sequencing for dissecting blood malignancies and devising detailed molecular characterization of tumor cells in symptomatic and asymptomatic patients

Priorities for synthesis research in ecology and environmental science

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We thank the National Science Foundation grant #1940692 for financial support for this workshop, and the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) and its staff for logistical support.Peer reviewedPublisher PD