Cortical injury in multiple sclerosis; the role of the immune system

The easily identifiable, ubiquitous demyelination and neuronal damage that occurs within the cerebral white matter of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) has been the subject of extensive study. Accordingly, MS has historically been described as a disease of the white matter. Recently, the cerebral cortex (gray matter) of patients with MS has been recognized as an additional and major site of disease pathogenesis. This acknowledgement of cortical tissue damage is due, in part, to more powerful MRI that allows detection of such injury and to focused neuropathology-based investigations. Cortical tissue damage has been associated with inflammation that is less pronounced to that which is associated with damage in the white matter. There is, however, emerging evidence that suggests cortical damage can be closely associated with robust inflammation not only in the parenchyma, but also in the neighboring meninges. This manuscript will highlight the current knowledge of inflammation associated with cortical tissue injury. Historical literature along with contemporary work that focuses on both the absence and presence of inflammation in the cerebral cortex and in the cerebral meninges will be reviewed

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been in the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The lack of a free-lunch theorem implies the need for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle an array of applications. This unique article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We offer a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts, including operations, economics, finance, energy, environment, and social good. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. The list was compiled based on the expertise and interests of the authors. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of the forecasting theory and practice

Latent heterogeneity effects in modelling individual hazards: A non-proportional approach

This paper proposes an extension of individual hazard modelling through diffusion of innovation methodologies with the introduction of latent neighbouring effects in individual hazards. The proposal combines the Bemmaor's methodology for latent heterogeneous factors in the Cox proportional hazards model. The new model, the Bass-Bemmaor-Cox model, defines a non-proportional approach driven by a mixture of shifted Gompertz individual distributions where the time scale parameter governing growth dynamics depends upon observed covariates at the individual level. Conversely, individual propensity to the change of state included in the Gompertz sub-model is heterogeneous and latent within observed population. Based on experimental data referred to an ovarian pathology under treatment, an illustrative example is given. Further applications may be relevant for quantitative forecasting in marketing and technological diffusion contexts

Puntualizzazioni sul modello di controllo ad errore di equazione in condizione di circuito chiuso: risultati di una simulazione

La dimensione delle risorse di calcolo e le difficolt\ue0 di interpretazione dei risultati di una simulazione di una procedura di stima complessa possono essere ridotte drasticamente se si dispone di statistiche consistenti distribuite asintoticamente in modo noto. Sotto le stesse condizioni \ue8 possibile non solo controllare gli esiti di una simulazione ma anche pianificare la numerosit\ue0 minima ("velocit\ue0 di convergenza") indispensabile per garantire una "precisione" assegnata delle stime dei parametri basate su dati concreti. Una applicazione degli strumenti proposti \ue8 stata realizzata con riferimento allo studio delle propriet\ue0 statistiche di una particolare tecnica di stima basata sui minimi quadrati, ricolta all'individuazione dei parametri di un modello di controllo ad errore di equazione per un sistema operante in condizione di circuito chiuso

Partial and ecological correlation: a common three-term covariance decomposition

Covariance decomposition, Partial covariance, Ecological covariance, Ecological fallacy, Two-level nested model, Multivariate covariance decomposition,