The Evolution of the East Asian Currency Baskets – Still Undisclosed and Changing

Both before and after the Asian crisis, the dollar has been the dominant anchor and reserve currency in East Asia. Due to underdeveloped capital markets and the limited international role of their domestic currencies, the East Asian countries (except Japan) are likely to continue to stabilize exchange rates and to accumulate international reserves. Yet expectations of further dollar depreciation may trigger a re-orientation of exchange rate policies based on basket strategies. Rolling econometric estimations of the basket structures in East Asia suggest growing weights for the Japanese yen in most East Asian currency baskets. The role of the euro as a reserve currency in East Asia remains uncertain.East Asia, currency basket, exchange rate policies, international role of the euro

Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia

The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia. Exchange stability has been argued to affect growth negatively as it deprives countries from the ability to react in a flexible way to asymmetric real shocks and may enhance the probability of speculative capital inflows and overheating. In contrast, exchange rate stability can be argued to affect growth in emerging market economies positively because transaction costs for international trade decline, uncertainty for international capital flows is less and macroeconomic stability is enhanced. Cross country panel estimations provide evidence for a negative impact of exchange rate volatility on growth both in Emerging Europe and East Asia.exchange rate regimes, growth, boom-and-bust cycles, Emerging Europe, East Asia

The Russian Currency Basket: The Rising Role of the Euro for Russia’s Exchange Rate Policies

In 2005, the Bank of Russia has made three announcements that indicate an increasing role for the euro in the Russian exchange rate strategy. On February 4 2005 the Bank of Russia announced that it has started to stabilize the daily volatilities of the Russian ruble against a dollar- euro currency basket. While the announced weight of the euro was 10% (90% dollar) by then, the Bank of Russia increased this weight to currently 40% within ten months. Bank of Russia representatives have stressed the intention to increase the weight of the euro the Russian currency basket further up to 50% but without indicating a specific time horizon. Other statements of Bank of Russia representatives have stressed the rising role of euro as intervention and reserve currency. This paper reviews the recent trends in Russian exchange rate strategy with a focus on the role of the euro.Words: Russia, Currency Basket, International Role of the Euro.

Capital markets and exchange rate stabilization in East Asia: Diversifying risk based on currency baskets

Before and after the Asian crisis, the dollar has been the dominant anchor and reserve currency in East Asia. Due to underdeveloped capital markets and a very limited international role of the domestic currencies, the East Asian countries (except Japan) are likely to continue exchange rate stabilization and accumulation of international reserves. Yet expectations about a further depreciation of the dollar may trigger a broader orientation of exchange rate policies based on basket strategies. While the direction of trade suggests a substantial weight for the Japanese yen in East Asian countries' currency baskets, the role of the euro is enhanced by expectations about its long-term stability. (Rolling) econometric estimations of the basket structures in East Asia suggest growing weights of the euro and the yen in the currency baskets of Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. In contrast, for China, Hong Kong and Malaysia, the dollar remains the dominant anchor currency. --East Asia,Currency Basket,Exchange Rate Policies,International Role of the Euro

International Capital Markets and Exchange Rate Stabilization in the CIS

In this paper, we examine the rationale for dollar and euro pegging in Russia and the CIS. We consider macroeconomic stabilization and transaction costs for international trade as rationales for pegging to the euro. Dollarization of international assets and liabilities are examined as determinants of exchange rate stabilization against the dollar. The impact of network externalities from a common anchor for all CIS countries is explored. Tests on de facto exchange rate stabilization reveal that dollar pegging has been pervasive in the CIS.CIS, Exchange Rate Systems

Weak Economy and Strong Currency - The Origins of the Strong Yen in the 1990s

During the 1990’s the Japanese yen proved astonishingly strong despite the persisting recession. This paper tracks the origins of the high yen. It analyses the influence of interest rates, prices and foreign exchange policy on the yen-dollar exchange rate. It comes to the conclusion that real interest differentials can only explain short-term exchange rate changes. Since prices have been exerting their influence on the Japanese currency in the long run, the high yen is explained with deflation. The massive foreign exchange interventions of the 1990’s were only able to stop the appreciation temporarily, if they were unsterilized, but they had no lasting effects.Japan, Yen, Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate, Foreign Exchange Intervention

De jure versus de facto Exchange Rate Stabilization in Central and Eastern Europe

The IMF classifications of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) exchange rate arrange-ments are heterogeneous. While one group of countries reports tight pegs to the euro, a second group seems to have moved toward (more) exchange rate flexibility. Based on the recent dis- cussion about the accuracy of IMF exchange rate arrangement classifications, low- and high-frequency exchange rate stability in Central and Eastern Europe is explored. De facto ex-change rate stabilization is found to be much more prevalent in Central and Eastern Europe than suggested by de jure exchange rate classifications. Most of the CEE countries peg their currencies to the euro, thereby contributing to a growing euro zone. Nevertheless, as exchange rate stabilization against the euro is pursued with different degrees and with different long-term drifts, intra-regional exchange rates are still far from being unified.Foreign Exchange Policy, EMU, Euro Zone, Central and Eastern Europe

A Vicious Cycle of Manias, Crashes and Asymmetric Policy Responses - An Overinvestment View

The business cycles theories of Wicksell (1898), Schumpeter (1912), Mises (1912), Hayek (1929, 1935) and Minsky (1986, 1992) explain business cycles by distorted prices on capital markets, buoyant credit expansion and overinvestment. The exuberance during the boom endogenously causes the subsequent slump. While these theories put the emphasis on explaining the emergence of the cycle, this paper focuses on the macroeconomic policy responses during and after the crisis, when panic tightens credit supply. The paper allows an assessment of the long-term consequences of an asymmetric monetary and fiscal policy response to financial crisis.

A structural break in the effects of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on yen/dollar exchange rate volatility

While up to the late 1990s Japanese foreign exchange intervention was fully sterilized, Japanese monetary authorities left foreign exchange intervention unsterilized when Japan entered the liquidity trap in 1999. According to previous research on foreign exchange intervention, unsterilized intervention has a higher probability of success than sterilized intervention. Based on a GARCH framework and change point detection, we test for a structural break in the effectiveness of Japanese foreign exchange intervention. We find a changing impact of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on exchange rate volatility at the turn of the millennium when Japanese foreign exchange intervention started to remain unsterilized. JEL Classification: E58, F31, F33, G15Change Point Detection, Exchange rate volatility, foreign exchange intervention, GARCH, Japan, Structural Breaks

A Vicious Cycle of Manias, Crashes and Asymmetric Policy Responses - An Overinvestment View

The business cycles theories of Wicksell (1898), Schumpeter (1912), Mises (1912), Hayek (1929, 1935) and Minsky (1986, 1992) explain business cycles by distorted prices on capital markets, buoyant credit expansion and overinvestment. The exuberance during the boom endogenously causes the subsequent slump. While these theories put the emphasis on explaining the emergence of the cycle, this paper focuses on the macroeconomic policy responses during and after the crisis, when panic tightens credit supply. The paper allows an assessment of the long-term consequences of an asymmetric monetary and fiscal policy response to financial crisis.Manias; Bubbles; Austrian; Policy Responses