Geographic liberalization and the accessibility of banking services in rural areas

This study assesses the degree to which the liberalization of geographic banking restrictions has lived up to its promise of enhancing service accessibility in rural areas. The empirical framework is distinguished by a focus on changes in accessibility, as opposed to levels. While previous research has produced mixed results on the benefits of greater geographic powers for service accessibility in rural communities, the results reported here point unambiguously to a positive relationship between expansion opportunities and accessibility. Both OLS and ordinallevel probit regressions indicate that geographic banking liberalizations, particularly those leading to greater branching opportunities, have been associated with relatively strong growth in the number of banking offices serving rural areas.Rural areas ; Banks and banking

Taming the credit cycle by limiting high-risk lending

Reformers should review the loan-to-value guidelines for real estate lending, toughen them up where necessary and, most important, put the force of law behind them.Regulation ; Mortgage loans - Law and legislation ; Risk management ; Financial crises

Financiers of the world, disunite

Diversity across banks and other financial firms promotes a resilient financial system because differing risk profiles reduce the likelihood of systemic crises caused by shared economic shocks. Consolidation and uniformity among banks and other financial intermediaries do the opposite. ; Yet some have suggested that any policy steps to reverse the financial system’s dramatic consolidation might yield little stability benefit because herd-like behavior among financial firms could still reduce diversity and mitigate any strengthening. If these firms moved in concert, the argument goes, they would make themselves susceptible to common shocks as if they had adopted a more consolidated structure. ; Countering this concern are indications that financial firms, when allowed to flourish, display stability-enhancing diversity. We find that hedge funds—despite a reputation for high-risk strategies and correlated behavior—recently have exhibited significant strategic dissimilarities, to the benefit of system stability.Financial risk management

Industry mix and lending environment variability: what does the average bank face

Diversification opportunities for banks may be greater today because of the lessening of geographic restrictions. In addition, regional economies have undergone vast transformations, with relatively volatile industries often assuming a diminished role. To assess whether these changes have resulted in a more stable lending environment, Jeff Gunther and Ken Robinson form industry portfolios for banks based on their presence in different states and the mix of economic activity found in those states. The authors find that the risk underlying banks' lending environments declined from 1985 to 1996 because of both a geographic restructuring of the banking system and increasing industrial diversification of state economies.Banks and banking ; Financial institutions

Auditing the auditors: oversight or overkill?

A growing number of high-profile companies have had to restate their earnings at substantially lower levels to correct the prior use of "aggressive" and even fraudulent accounting practices. Because the companies’ auditors approved the original reports, policymakers have questioned the capacity of public accounting firms to promote fair financial reporting. In response, recent legislation has instituted several reforms, including the creation of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, which together with the Securities and Exchange Commission will investigate alleged lapses in accounting practices. But how much oversight is really necessary? Jeffery Gunther and Robert Moore examine recent events in the light of research findings. Based on this analysis, they conclude that market forces have tended, over time, to shape the role of auditors to match or correspond to the needs of investors in monitoring individual companies’ performance. Despite current sentiment to the contrary, substantial government involvement in the business of auditing appears to be needed only when other types of government intervention, such as bank deposit insurance, have already disrupted market-based incentives for effective audits. In the more typical situation, both government and industry policymakers should avoid restrictive measures that unnecessarily increase audit costs, instead taking into account market forces’ successful track record in disciplining ineffective auditors and promoting an effective audit function.>Securities and Exchange Commission ; Accounting

A CAMEL rating's shelf life

How quickly do the CAMEL ratings regulators assign to banks during on-site examinations become "stale"? One measure of the information content of CAMEL ratings is their ability to discriminate between banks that will fail and those that will survive. To assess the accuracy of CAMEL ratings in predicting failure, Rebel Cole and Jeffery Gunther use as a benchmark an offsite monitoring system based on publicly available accounting data. Their findings suggest that, if a bank has not been examined for more than two quarters, off-site monitoring systems usually provide a more accurate indication of survivability than its CAMEL rating. The lower predictive accuracy for CAMEL ratings “older” than two quarters causes the overall accuracy of CAMEL ratings to fall substantially below that of off-site monitoring systems. The higher predictive accuracy of off-site systems derives from both their timeliness—an updated off-site rating is available for every bank in every quarter—and the accuracy of the financial data on which they are based. Cole and Gunther conclude that off-site monitoring systems should continue to play a prominent role in the supervisory process, as a complement to on-site examinations.bank; bank failure; CAMEL; CAMEL rating; commercial bank; offsite supervision

Has the housing boom increased mortgage risk?

Adjustable rate mortgages

Increasing the efficiency of pooled estimation with a block covariance structure

Econometrics ; Econometric models

Financial statements and reality: do troubled banks tell all?

Each quarter, banks file a call report, or Report of Condition and Income, containing hundreds of accounting items pertaining to their financial condition. This article analyzes call report revisions to assess the extent to which regulatory exams promote accurate data. The findings indicate banks with new or emerging difficulties often significantly underreport these problems, intentionally or not. In addition, the findings point to a significant role for exams in uncovering financial problems and ensuring bank accounting statements reflect them. To the extent the loan-loss accounting in call reports is widely used to assess loan quality, these results support the view that exams are important in the public dissemination of accurate information on banks' financial condition.

Early warning models in real time

Each quarter, banks file a call report, or Report of Condition and Income, containing hundreds of accounting items pertaining to their financial condition. Because call reports are filed quarterly, whereas banks are typically examined about once every twelve to eighteen months, statistical early warning models using call report data potentially provide a more up-to-date picture of a bank's condition than on-site exams alone. Often neglected, however, is the fact that call report data are subject to revision. We find evidence of a strong relationship between on-site exams and call report revisions. In addition, we evaluate a major class of early warning models using both originally published and revised data to assess whether model accuracy in real time is appreciably lower than accuracy measured using revised data. The findings indicate revised data overstate the accuracy of early warning models. The substantial effect of revisions on the accuracy of early warning models, coupled with the finding of a relationship between revisions and exams, points to a substantial auditing role for on-site exams. More generally, our findings point to the need for care in the use of call report data for research in which the real-time flow of financial information is of some concern.Econometrics ; Banks and banking - Accounting ; Bank supervision