Performance-Based Conditionality: A European Perspective

For several years, the conditionality underpinning budgetary support to developing countries has been the object of severe criticism. This criticism has led to the belief that the “ownership of policies” by the recipient country governments is essential for the effective implementation of economic reform programmes. To this end, it has been suggested that traditional conditionality based on policy measures be replaced by a conditionality in which aid is based on performance outcomes. In this spirit, the European Commission has reformed its adjustment aid. The present article provides an assessment of this experiment based on the experiences in Benin, Burkina Faso, Madagascar and Uganda. It demonstrates the danger of a shift towards intermediate indicators, which are too distant from the final impact of the policies, and suggests several improvements to implement genuine performance-based conditionality.Conditionality, developing countries, fiscal policy, Aid

La conditionnalité de performance : une expérience européenne

For several years, the conditionality underpinning budgetary support to developing countries has been the object of severe criticism. This criticism has led to the belief that the “ownership of policies” by the recipient country governments is essential for the effective implementation of economic reform programmes. To this end, it has been suggested that traditional conditionality based on policy measures be replaced by a conditionality in which aid is based on performance outcomes. In this spirit, the European Commission has reformed its adjustment aid. The present article provides an assessment of this experiment based on the experiences in Benin, Burkina Faso, Madagascar and Uganda. It demonstrates the danger of a shift towards intermediate indicators, which are too distant from the final impact of the policies, and suggests several improvements to implement genuine performance-based conditionality.Conditionality, developing countries, fiscal policy, Aid

Blood RNA analysis can increase clinical diagnostic rate and resolve variants of uncertain significance

Purpose: Diagnosis of genetic disorders is hampered by large numbers of variants of uncertain significance (VUSs) identified through next-generation sequencing. Many such variants may disrupt normal RNA splicing. We examined effects on splicing of a large cohort of clinically identified variants and compared performance of bioinformatic splicing prediction tools commonly used in diagnostic laboratories. Methods: Two hundred fifty-seven variants (coding and noncoding) were referred for analysis across three laboratories. Blood RNA samples underwent targeted reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) analysis with Sanger sequencing of PCR products and agarose gel electrophoresis. Seventeen samples also underwent transcriptome-wide RNA sequencing with targeted splicing analysis based on Sashimi plot visualization. Bioinformatic splicing predictions were obtained using Alamut, HSF 3.1, and SpliceAI software. Results: Eighty-five variants (33%) were associated with abnormal splicing. The most frequent abnormality was upstream exon skipping (39/85 variants), which was most often associated with splice donor region variants. SpliceAI had greatest accuracy in predicting splicing abnormalities (0.91) and outperformed other tools in sensitivity and specificity. Conclusion: Splicing analysis of blood RNA identifies diagnostically important splicing abnormalities and clarifies functional effects of a significant proportion of VUSs. Bioinformatic predictions are improving but still make significant errors. RNA analysis should therefore be routinely considered in genetic disease diagnostics.This article is freely available via Open Access. Click on the Publisher URL to access it via the publisher's site.This research was funded by National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) and the NewLife Foundation. The Baralle lab is supported by NIHR Research Professorship to D.B. (RP-2016-07-011).published version, accepted version (6 month embargo), submitted versio

Assessing performance of pathogenicity predictors using clinically relevant variant datasets

Background: Pathogenicity predictors are integral to genomic variant interpretation but, despite their widespread usage, an independent validation of performance using a clinically relevant dataset has not been undertaken. Methods: We derive two validation datasets: an 'open' dataset containing variants extracted from publicly available databases, similar to those commonly applied in previous benchmarking exercises, and a 'clinically representative' dataset containing variants identified through research/diagnostic exome and panel sequencing. Using these datasets, we evaluate the performance of three recent meta-predictors, REVEL, GAVIN and ClinPred, and compare their performance against two commonly used in silico tools, SIFT and PolyPhen-2. Results: Although the newer meta-predictors outperform the older tools, the performance of all pathogenicity predictors is substantially lower in the clinically representative dataset. Using our clinically relevant dataset, REVEL performed best with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.82. Using a concordance-based approach based on a consensus of multiple tools reduces the performance due to both discordance between tools and false concordance where tools make common misclassification. Analysis of tool feature usage may give an insight into the tool performance and misclassification. Conclusion: Our results support the adoption of meta-predictors over traditional in silico tools, but do not support a consensus-based approach as in current practice.This article is freely available via Open Access. Click on the Publisher URL to access it via the publisher's site.This work was supported by the Wellcome Trust [WT200990/Z/16/Z] and [WT200990/A/16/Z]published version, submitted versio

Procalcitonin Is Not a Reliable Biomarker of Bacterial Coinfection in People With Coronavirus Disease 2019 Undergoing Microbiological Investigation at the Time of Hospital Admission

Abstract Admission procalcitonin measurements and microbiology results were available for 1040 hospitalized adults with coronavirus disease 2019 (from 48 902 included in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium World Health Organization Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK study). Although procalcitonin was higher in bacterial coinfection, this was neither clinically significant (median [IQR], 0.33 [0.11–1.70] ng/mL vs 0.24 [0.10–0.90] ng/mL) nor diagnostically useful (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.56 [95% confidence interval, .51–.60]).</jats:p

Implementation of corticosteroids in treating COVID-19 in the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK:prospective observational cohort study

BACKGROUND: Dexamethasone was the first intervention proven to reduce mortality in patients with COVID-19 being treated in hospital. We aimed to evaluate the adoption of corticosteroids in the treatment of COVID-19 in the UK after the RECOVERY trial publication on June 16, 2020, and to identify discrepancies in care. METHODS: We did an audit of clinical implementation of corticosteroids in a prospective, observational, cohort study in 237 UK acute care hospitals between March 16, 2020, and April 14, 2021, restricted to patients aged 18 years or older with proven or high likelihood of COVID-19, who received supplementary oxygen. The primary outcome was administration of dexamethasone, prednisolone, hydrocortisone, or methylprednisolone. This study is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN66726260. FINDINGS: Between June 17, 2020, and April 14, 2021, 47 795 (75·2%) of 63 525 of patients on supplementary oxygen received corticosteroids, higher among patients requiring critical care than in those who received ward care (11 185 [86·6%] of 12 909 vs 36 415 [72·4%] of 50 278). Patients 50 years or older were significantly less likely to receive corticosteroids than those younger than 50 years (adjusted odds ratio 0·79 [95% CI 0·70–0·89], p=0·0001, for 70–79 years; 0·52 [0·46–0·58], p80 years), independent of patient demographics and illness severity. 84 (54·2%) of 155 pregnant women received corticosteroids. Rates of corticosteroid administration increased from 27·5% in the week before June 16, 2020, to 75–80% in January, 2021. INTERPRETATION: Implementation of corticosteroids into clinical practice in the UK for patients with COVID-19 has been successful, but not universal. Patients older than 70 years, independent of illness severity, chronic neurological disease, and dementia, were less likely to receive corticosteroids than those who were younger, as were pregnant women. This could reflect appropriate clinical decision making, but the possibility of inequitable access to life-saving care should be considered. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research and UK Medical Research Council

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Para-infectious brain injury in COVID-19 persists at follow-up despite attenuated cytokine and autoantibody responses

To understand neurological complications of COVID-19 better both acutely and for recovery, we measured markers of brain injury, inflammatory mediators, and autoantibodies in 203 hospitalised participants; 111 with acute sera (1–11 days post-admission) and 92 convalescent sera (56 with COVID-19-associated neurological diagnoses). Here we show that compared to 60 uninfected controls, tTau, GFAP, NfL, and UCH-L1 are increased with COVID-19 infection at acute timepoints and NfL and GFAP are significantly higher in participants with neurological complications. Inflammatory mediators (IL-6, IL-12p40, HGF, M-CSF, CCL2, and IL-1RA) are associated with both altered consciousness and markers of brain injury. Autoantibodies are more common in COVID-19 than controls and some (including against MYL7, UCH-L1, and GRIN3B) are more frequent with altered consciousness. Additionally, convalescent participants with neurological complications show elevated GFAP and NfL, unrelated to attenuated systemic inflammatory mediators and to autoantibody responses. Overall, neurological complications of COVID-19 are associated with evidence of neuroglial injury in both acute and late disease and these correlate with dysregulated innate and adaptive immune responses acutely

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use and outcomes of COVID-19 in the ISARIC Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK cohort: a matched, prospective cohort study.

Background: Early in the pandemic it was suggested that pre-existing use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) could lead to increased disease severity in patients with COVID-19. NSAIDs are an important analgesic, particularly in those with rheumatological disease, and are widely available to the general public without prescription. Evidence from community studies, administrative data, and small studies of hospitalised patients suggest NSAIDs are not associated with poorer COVID-19 outcomes. We aimed to characterise the safety of NSAIDs and identify whether pre-existing NSAID use was associated with increased severity of COVID-19 disease. Methods: This prospective, multicentre cohort study included patients of any age admitted to hospital with a confirmed or highly suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection leading to COVID-19 between Jan 17 and Aug 10, 2020. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, and secondary outcomes were disease severity at presentation, admission to critical care, receipt of invasive ventilation, receipt of non-invasive ventilation, use of supplementary oxygen, and acute kidney injury. NSAID use was required to be within the 2 weeks before hospital admission. We used logistic regression to estimate the effects of NSAIDs and adjust for confounding variables. We used propensity score matching to further estimate effects of NSAIDS while accounting for covariate differences in populations. Results: Between Jan 17 and Aug 10, 2020, we enrolled 78 674 patients across 255 health-care facilities in England, Scotland, and Wales. 72 179 patients had death outcomes available for matching; 40 406 (56·2%) of 71 915 were men, 31 509 (43·8%) were women. In this cohort, 4211 (5·8%) patients were recorded as taking systemic NSAIDs before admission to hospital. Following propensity score matching, balanced groups of NSAIDs users and NSAIDs non-users were obtained (4205 patients in each group). At hospital admission, we observed no significant differences in severity between exposure groups. After adjusting for explanatory variables, NSAID use was not associated with worse in-hospital mortality (matched OR 0·95, 95% CI 0·84–1·07; p=0·35), critical care admission (1·01, 0·87–1·17; p=0·89), requirement for invasive ventilation (0·96, 0·80–1·17; p=0·69), requirement for non-invasive ventilation (1·12, 0·96–1·32; p=0·14), requirement for oxygen (1·00, 0·89–1·12; p=0·97), or occurrence of acute kidney injury (1·08, 0·92–1·26; p=0·33). Interpretation: NSAID use is not associated with higher mortality or increased severity of COVID-19. Policy makers should consider reviewing issued advice around NSAID prescribing and COVID-19 severity. Funding: National Institute for Health Research and Medical Research Council