The potential effect of improved provision of rabies post-exposure prophylaxis in Gavi-eligible countries: a modelling study

Background: Tens of thousands of people die from dog-mediated rabies annually. Deaths can be prevented through post-exposure prophylaxis for people who have been bitten, and the disease eliminated through dog vaccination. Current post-exposure prophylaxis use saves many lives, but availability remains poor in many rabies-endemic countries due to high costs, poor access, and supply. Methods: We developed epidemiological and economic models to investigate the effect of an investment in post-exposure prophylaxis by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. We modelled post-exposure prophylaxis use according to the status quo, with improved access using WHO-recommended intradermal vaccination, with and without rabies immunoglobulin, and with and without dog vaccination. We took the health provider perspective, including only direct costs. Findings: We predict more than 1 million deaths will occur in the 67 rabies-endemic countries considered from 2020 to 2035, under the status quo. Current post-exposure prophylaxis use prevents approximately 56 000 deaths annually. Expanded access to, and free provision of, post-exposure prophylaxis would prevent an additional 489 000 deaths between 2020 and 2035. Under this switch to efficient intradermal post-exposure prophylaxis regimens, total projected vaccine needs remain similar (about 73 million vials) yet 17·4 million more people are vaccinated, making this an extremely cost-effective method, with costs of US$635 per death averted and$33 per disability-adjusted life-years averted. Scaling up dog vaccination programmes could eliminate dog-mediated rabies over this time period; improved post-exposure prophylaxis access remains cost-effective under this scenario, especially in combination with patient risk assessments to reduce unnecessary post-exposure prophylaxis use. Interpretation: Investing in post-exposure vaccines would be an extremely cost-effective intervention that could substantially reduce disease burden and catalyse dog vaccination efforts to eliminate dog-mediated rabies. Funding: World Health Organization

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on rabies post-exposure prophylaxis services in Asia

Human rabies is a preventable disease through post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) in rabies endemic countries where enzootic cycle of dog rabies occurs. The COVID‑19 pandemic has induced an unprecedented challenge for under-funded and already stretched health‑care systems particularly in low- and middle-income countries, which are unfortunately bearing a huge burden of human rabies. An analysis of hospital-based PEP data in India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand, focus group discussion and key informant interview have been carried out to better understand the impact of Covid-19 pandemic in human rabies prophylaxis. It is necessary to better prepare for human rabies prophylaxis in future pandemics based on lesson learnt from current pandemic. The PEP should be categorized as an emergency medical service, and it should be part of the hospital medical emergency. Mass dog vaccination against rabies should be accelerated to reduce the risk of potential bite of roaming dogs and pet dogs in communities. It is a wise decision to invest in cost-effective preparedness, i.e., mass dog vaccination rather than costly response, i.e., human rabies prophylaxis