Text mining of Scottish post-emergency and training exercise debrief reports

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A surface water flooding impact library for flood risk assessment

The growing demand for improved risk-based Surface Water Flooding (SWF) warning systems is evident in EU directives and in the UK Government’s Pitt Review of the 2007 summer floods. This paper presents a novel approach for collating receptor and vulnerability datasets via the concept of an Impact Library, developed by the Health and Safety Laboratory as a depository of pre-calculated impact information on SWF risk for use in a real-time SWF Hazard Impact Model (HIM). This has potential benefits for the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) as the organisation responsible for the issuing of flood guidance information for England and Wales. The SWF HIM takes a pixel-based approach to link probabilistic surface water runoff forecasts produced by CEH’s Grid-to-Grid hydrological model with Impact Library information to generate impact assessments. These are combined to estimate flood risk as a combination of impact severity and forecast likelihood, at 1km pixel level, and summarised for counties and local authorities. The SWF HIM takes advantage of recent advances in operational ensemble forecasting of rainfall by the Met Office and of SWF by the Environment Agency and CEH working together through the FFC. Results are presented for a case study event which affected the North East of England during 2012. The work has been developed through the UK’s Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP), a group of organisations gathered to provide information, research and analysis on natural hazards for civil contingencies, government and responders across the UK

Development of an operational, risk-based approach to surface water flood forecasting

Surface water flooding occurs regularly across England and Wales, especially during the summer months. It is widely acknowledged that surface water flooding presents a particular challenge to forecasters because of the difficulties inherent in forecasting intense localised rainfall and the highly complex runoff and drainage processes which operate at the surface, particularly in urban areas. The Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) has a responsibility to provide guidance on the risk of surface water flooding to Category 1 and 2 responders across England and Wales. Consequently, there is the requirement for improved methods for forecasting surface water flood risk and the FFC is currently involved in developing and trialling a novel surface water flood forecasting system, the Surface Water Flooding Hazard Impact Model (SWF HIM). The SWF HIM offers significant advances over existing surface water flood forecasting methods used by the FFC, including provision of a risk-based approach. The SWF HIM links probabilistic runoff forecasts from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology’s Grid-to-Grid model with a library of pre-calculated surface water impact information compiled by the Health and Safety Laboratory. These probabilistic runoff forecasts are combined with impact information to provide a forecast of surface water flood risk at a 1km2 resolution across England and Wales. This presentation outlines the methodology together with some initial results from the trial. The work has been undertaken as part of the UK’s Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP) and also benefits from the close working relationship between the Environment Agency and the Met Office through the FFC

Infection-related morbidity and mortality among older patients with DLBCL treated with full- or attenuated-dose R-CHOP

Infection-related morbidity and mortality are increased in older patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) compared with population-matched controls. Key predictive factors for infection-related hospitalization during treatment with rituximab plus cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone (R-CHOP) and deaths as a result of infection in older patients during and after treatment with R-CHOP remain incompletely understood. For this study, 690 consecutively treated patients age 70 years or older who received full-dose or attenuated-dose R-CHOP treatment were analyzed for risk of infection-related hospitalization and infection-related death. Median age was 77 years, and 34.4% were 80 years old or older. Median follow-up was 2.8 years (range, 0.4-8.9 years). Patient and baseline disease characteristics were assessed in addition to intended dose intensity (IDI). Of all patients, 72% were not hospitalized with infection. In 331 patients receiving an IDI ≥80%, 33% were hospitalized with ≥1 infections compared with 23.3% of 355 patients receiving an IDI of 80% across the whole cohort. Primary quinolone prophylaxis independently reduced infection-related admission. A total of 51 patients died as a result of infection. The 6-month, 12-month, 2-year, and 5-year cumulative incidences of infection-related death were 3.3%, 5.0%, 7.2%, and 11.1%, respectively. Key independent factors associated with infection-related death were an International Prognostic Index (IPI) score of 3 to 5, Cumulative Illness Rating Scale for Geriatrics (CIRS-G) score ≥6, and low albumin, which enabled us to generate a predictive risk score. We defined a smaller group (15%) of patients (IPI score of 0-2, albumin >36 g/L, CIRS-G score <6) in which no cases of infection-related deaths occurred at 5 years of follow-up. Whether patients at higher risk of infection-related death could be targeted with enhanced antimicrobial prophylaxis remains unknown and will require a randomized trial

Developing an impact library for forecasting surface water flood risk

During surface water flooding events, emergency responders require detailed information on the risks posed in order to provide an appropriate and effective response. Few early warning systems quantitatively estimate the risk and impacts of surface water flooding. Improvements in computational processing capability, availability of new datasets and developments in forecasting models means that the forecasting information currently being supplied by the Flood Forecasting Centre can be improved upon through the application of a timely, impact‐based model. This article presents a novel approach to collating receptor datasets into a pre‐calculated Impact Library for use in a Hazard Impact Model (HIM) that will operate using real‐time probabilistic rainfall and surface runoff forecasts for England and Wales. The HIM provides an approach suitable for modelling flood impacts. Initial results are presented for a case study covering the 2012 floods in the North East of England. Information generated by the HIM provides additional benefits beyond current methods. Features include operator access to 1 km 15 min spatial–temporal data, analysis of individual impact criteria and modular refinement of the Impact Library to suit different situations. The HIM has been developed in partnership via the Natural Hazards Partnership

Developing a dual-wavelength full-waveform terrestrial laser scanner to characterise forest canopy structure

The development of a dual-wavelength full-waveform terrestrial laser scanner to measure the three-dimensional structure of forest canopies is described, and field measurements used to evaluate and test the instrument measurement characteristics. The Salford Advanced Laser Canopy Analyser (SALCA) measures the full-waveform of backscattered radiation at two laser wavelengths, one in the near-infrared (1063 nm) and one in the shortwave infrared (1545 nm). The instrument is field-portable and measures up to nine million waveforms, at the two wavelengths, across a complete hemisphere above the instrument. SALCA was purpose-built to measure structural characteristics of forest canopies and this paper reports the first results of field-based data collection using the instrument. Characteristics of the waveforms, and waveform data processing are outlined, applications of dual wavelength measurements are evaluated, and field deployment of the instrument at a forest test site described. Preliminary instrument calibration results are presented and challenges in extracting useful information on forest structure are highlighted. Full-waveform multiple-wavelength terrestrial laser scanners are likely to provide more detailed and more accurate forest structural measurement in the future. This research demonstrates how SALCA provides a key step to develop, test and apply this new technology in a range of forest-related problems

Sustainability of agriculture extension services in the face of COVID-19: a study on gender-specific market systems

In the fourth industrial revolution, achieving sustainable agricultural development while feeding a growing world population and maintaining a balanced interrelationship between the economy, society, and the environment has been a significant challenge. However, COVID-19 disrupted agricultural extension and advisory systems, affecting all market participants. The complexity of the pandemic has impacted the private sector, public sector, extension staff, donor funding, education, and research systems, subsequently affecting human nutrition. This paper aims to expertly review COVID-19’s effects on the sustainability of gender-specific agricultural extension service systems. Demand and supply market stakeholders in the extension system are thematically discussed. The findings reveal various consequences of COVID-19 for market actors on both the demand and supply sides of the extension system. Private-sector players often support expansion directly or indirectly, with multi-sectorial support and funding strategies existing for sustainability. In many developing nations, the comprehensive extension system was disrupted by COVID-19, impacting household incomes and nutrition. The pandemic accelerated the adoption of digital technologies in many developing nations, transitioning from a centralized to a decentralized and pluralistic extension model. Multi-sector coordination and execution, especially from health and other sectors, are crucial in managing complex crises that disrupt the market system

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London