EXPERT RISK ASSESSMENT OF FMD INTRODUCTION TO THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION FROM INFECTED COUNTRIES

Predictive assessment of possible risks of FMD introduction from neighboring countries to the territory of eight RF Federal Districts was presented. The risk quantitative parameters were determined by experts, specialists in the field of FMD epidemiology. To implement the expert survey method most significant routes of infection introduction to the RF were determined. The experts performed FMD introduction risk assessment for each federal district and determined its score. As a result of statistical analysis the greatest probability was determined for the Far-Eastern Federal District. The North Caucasus and Siberian Federal Okrugs demonstrate lower probability. Basing on the obtained data the major routes of FMD introduction to the territory of the country were determined. Preventive vaccination of susceptible animal population is carried out in order to prevent FMD occurrence and spread in the zones at risk of its introduction. It is aimed at FMD outbreak prevention in the specified RF Subjects by inducing protective immunity in at least 81% of immunized cattle and at least 95% of immunized pigs

Basic reproduction number for certain infectious porcine diseases: estimation of required level of vaccination or depopulation of susceptible animals

Basic reproduction number (R0) is one of the fundamental quantitative characteristics in epidemiology of infectious human and animal diseases. This parameter reflects the biological properties of the infectious agent, the social and economic aspects of animal husbandry, natural factors associated with the habitat of the animal population invaded by the virus (microorganism), as well as the effectiveness of methods selected for infection control, in particular, the implementation of preventive measures; it also allows foreseeing the number and probability of occurrence of new secondary outbreaks in the area at risk of the disease spread. The paper presents data on the estimation of basic reproduction number (R0) for a range of infectious porcine diseases. A systematic analysis has been undertaken with respect to the publications available on the estimation of R 0 for various virus isolates of African swine fever, classical swine fever, foot-and-mouth disease, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, Aujeszky’s disease, hepatitis E, encephalomyocarditis, porcine circovirus type 2, as well as pleuropneumonia associated with Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae, and diseases caused by pathogenic isolates of Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae. Based on the obtained R0 values, recommendations for the veterinary services are made on preventive vaccination of pigs against the above mentioned diseases in the areas at risk of infection spread. The necessary conditions for wild boar depopulation aimed to prevent new African swine fever outbreaks are identified, namely, the elimination of at least 75% of the wild boar population living in the risk zone within the period of time equal to one infectious period

Spatio-temporal modeling of the African swine fever epidemic in the Russian Federation, 2007-2012

© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. In 2007 African swine fever (ASF) entered Georgia and in the same year the disease entered the Russian Federation. From 2007 to 2012 ASF spread throughout the southern region of the Russian Federation. At the same time several cases of ASF were detected in the central and northern regions of the Russian Federation, forming a northern cluster of outbreaks in 2011. This northern cluster is of concern because of its proximity to mainland Europe. The aim of this study was to use details of recorded ASF outbreaks and human and swine population details to estimate the spatial distribution of ASF risk in the southern region of the European part of the Russian Federation. Our model of ASF risk was comprised of two components. The first was an estimate of ASF suitability scores calculated using maximum entropy methods. The second was an estimate of ASF risk as a function of Euclidean distance from index cases. An exponential distribution fitted to a frequency histogram of the Euclidean distance between consecutive ASF cases had a mean value of 156. km, a distance greater than the surveillance zone radius of 100-150. km stated in the ASF control regulations for the Russian Federation. We show that the spatial and temporal risk of ASF expansion is related to the suitability of the area of potential expansion, which is in turn a function of socio-economic and geographic variables. We propose that the methodology presented in this paper provides a useful tool to optimize surveillance for ASF in affected areas