Exports and sectoral financial dependence: evidence on French firms during the great global crisis

The unprecedented drop in international trade during the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 has mainly been analysed at the macroeconomic or sectoral level. However, exporters who are heterogeneous in terms of productivity, size or external financial dependence should be heterogeneously affected by the crisis. This issue is examined in this paper by using data on monthly exports at the product and destination level for some 100,000 individual French exporters, up to 2009M4. We show that the drop in French exports is mainly due to the intensive margin of large exporters. Small and large exporters are evenly affected when sectoral and geographical specialisations are controlled for. Lastly, exporters (small and large) in sectors structurally more dependent on external finance are the most affected by the crisis. JEL Classification: F02, F10, G01financial crisis, firms’ heterogeneity, intensive and extensive margins, international trade

Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version

BACI draws on United Nations COMTRADE data and covers more than 200 countries and 5,000 products, between 1994 and 2004. Imports and exports flows are reported annually by 130 countries to United Nations in values and quantities. When both exporting and importing countries report, we have two figures for the same flow, which have to be harmonised given the huge discrepancies between them: at the 6-digit level of the Harmonised System, the gap between mirror declarations exceeds 100 % for half of the observations in COMTRADE. Original procedures are developed aiming at providing the more disaggregated and rigorous trade database for the largest possible number of countries and years, with a special care in the treatment of unit values

BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-level

We document BACI, our international trade database covering more than 200 countries and 5,000 products, between 1994 and 2006. Original procedures have been developed to reconcile data reported by almost 150 countries to the United Nations Statistics Division, which disseminate them via COMTRADE. When both exporting and importing countries do report, we have two different figures for the same flow, which is useful to reconcile in a single figure. Firstly, as import values are reported CIF (cost, insurance and freight) and the exports are reported FOB (free on board), CIF costs have to be estimated and removed from imports values to compute FOB import values. We regress the unit-values ratios reported for a given elementary flow by gravity variables and for years, and world median unit-value for each product category . The second step is an evaluation of the reliability of country reporting, based on the reporting distances among partners. We decompose the absolute value of the ratios of mirror flows using a (weighted) variance analysis, and an index is build for each country. These reporting qualities are used as weights in the reconciliation of each bilateral trade flow twice reported. Taking advantage of this double information on each flow, we end up with a large coverage of countries not reporting at a given level of the product classification with a special care in the treatment of unit-values. BACI is freely available to users of COMTRADE database in our webpage: http://www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/bdd/baci.ht

Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version

BACI draws on United Nations COMTRADE data and covers more than 200 countries and 5,000 products, between 1994 and 2004. Imports and exports flows are reported annually by 130 countries to United Nations in values and quantities. When both exporting and importing countries report, we have two figures for the same flow, which have to be harmonised given the huge discrepancies between them: at the 6-digit level of the Harmonised System, the gap between mirror declarations exceeds 100 % for half of the observations in COMTRADE. Original procedures are developed aiming at providing the more disaggregated and rigorous trade database for the largest possible number of countries and years, with a special care in the treatment of unit values

BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-level

We document BACI, our international trade database covering more than 200 countries and 5,000 products, between 1994 and 2006. Original procedures have been developed to reconcile data reported by almost 150 countries to the United Nations Statistics Division, which disseminate them via COMTRADE. When both exporting and importing countries do report, we have two different figures for the same flow, which is useful to reconcile in a single figure. Firstly, as import values are reported CIF (cost, insurance and freight) and the exports are reported FOB (free on board), CIF costs have to be estimated and removed from imports values to compute FOB import values. We regress the unit-values ratios reported for a given elementary flow by gravity variables and for years, and world median unit-value for each product category . The second step is an evaluation of the reliability of country reporting, based on the reporting distances among partners. We decompose the absolute value of the ratios of mirror flows using a (weighted) variance analysis, and an index is build for each country. These reporting qualities are used as weights in the reconciliation of each bilateral trade flow twice reported. Taking advantage of this double information on each flow, we end up with a large coverage of countries not reporting at a given level of the product classification with a special care in the treatment of unit-values. BACI is freely available to users of COMTRADE database in our webpage: http://www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/bdd/baci.ht

BACI: International trade database at the product-level. The 1994-2007 version

This paper documents the construction of BACI, our international trade database, which covers more than 200 countries and 5,000 products, between 1994 and 2007. New approaches have been developed to reconcile data reported by almost 150 countries to the United Nations Statistics Division, collated via COMTRADE. When both exporting and importing countries report to Comtrade, we have two different figures for the same flow, so it is useful to reconcile these into a single figure. To do this, firstly, as import values are reported CIF (cost, insurance and freight) while exports are reported FOB (free on board), transport and insurance rates have to be estimated and removed from import values. We regress the observed CIF/FOB ratios for a given flow on gravity variables and a product-specific world median unit value. In a second step we evaluate the reliability of countries reporting. We decompose the absolute value of the ratios of mirror flows using a (weighted) variance analysis. These measures of the reliability of reported data are used as weights in the reconciliation of each bilateral trade flow which is reported twice. Taking advantage of this bilateral information on each flow, we end up with a large coverage of countries and more reliable data, especially in terms of unit-values. BACI is freely available online to users of COMTRADE database, in different product classifications

BACI: A World Database of International Trade at the Product-level (The 1995-2004 Version)

This paper document the construction of BACI, our international trade database covering more than 200 countries and 5,000 products, between 1995 and 2004. Original procedures have been developed to reconcile data reported by almost 150 countries to the United Nations Statistics Division, which disseminate them via COMTRADE. When both exporting and importing countries do report, we have two different figures for the same flow. In order to have a single coherent figure for each bilateral flow, we have need to reconcile them. Firstly, as import values are reported CIF (cost, insurance and freight) and the exports are reported FOB (free on board), CIF costs have to be estimated and removed from imports values to compute FOB import values. We regress the unit-values ratios reported for a given elementary flow by gravity variables: bilateral distance, dummies for adjacent or landlocked countries and for years, and world median unit-value for each product category (we consider a non-linear relationship between CIF costs and distance by introducing also the square distance). As expected, we find that CIF costs increase with distance and decrease with unit value. The second step is an evaluation of the reliability of country reporting, based on the declaration distances among partners. In order to evaluate this quality of countries reporting (as exporters or importers) we decompose the absolute value of the ratios of mirror flows using a (weighted) variance analysis, and an index is build for every country. Finally, the qualities of declaration are used as weights in the reconciliation of each bilateral trade flow twice reported. Taking advantage of this double information on each flow, we end up en plus?? with a large coverage of countries not reporting at a given level of the product classification. BACI provides the most disaggregated international reconciled values of bilateral flows, for the largest possible number of countries and years, with a special care in the treatment of unit-values. BACI is freely available to users of COMTRADE database in our webpage: http://www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/bdd/baci.ht

BACI: A World Database of International Trade at the Product-level (The 1995-2004 Version)

This paper document the construction of BACI, our international trade database covering more than 200 countries and 5,000 products, between 1995 and 2004. Original procedures have been developed to reconcile data reported by almost 150 countries to the United Nations Statistics Division, which disseminate them via COMTRADE. When both exporting and importing countries do report, we have two different figures for the same flow. In order to have a single coherent figure for each bilateral flow, we have need to reconcile them. Firstly, as import values are reported CIF (cost, insurance and freight) and the exports are reported FOB (free on board), CIF costs have to be estimated and removed from imports values to compute FOB import values. We regress the unit-values ratios reported for a given elementary flow by gravity variables: bilateral distance, dummies for adjacent or landlocked countries and for years, and world median unit-value for each product category (we consider a non-linear relationship between CIF costs and distance by introducing also the square distance). As expected, we find that CIF costs increase with distance and decrease with unit value. The second step is an evaluation of the reliability of country reporting, based on the declaration distances among partners. In order to evaluate this quality of countries reporting (as exporters or importers) we decompose the absolute value of the ratios of mirror flows using a (weighted) variance analysis, and an index is build for every country. Finally, the qualities of declaration are used as weights in the reconciliation of each bilateral trade flow twice reported. Taking advantage of this double information on each flow, we end up en plus?? with a large coverage of countries not reporting at a given level of the product classification. BACI provides the most disaggregated international reconciled values of bilateral flows, for the largest possible number of countries and years, with a special care in the treatment of unit-values. BACI is freely available to users of COMTRADE database in our webpage: http://www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/bdd/baci.ht

Intra-industry trade and regional integration

The link between regional integration and intra-industry trade (IIT) has been under scrutiny since it has been first suggested by the European integration process. However, the lack of reliable data and the difficulty to find a robust model for IIT made this relationship difficult to prove. This paper tackles this issue using an harmonised dataset at the most detailed level of product disaggregation on a worldwide basis from the beginning of the 1990s to 2002. We study the case of four de jure or de facto integration zones: the European Union, NAFTA, Mercosur and East Asia. Trade flows are classified as inter- or intra-industry trade and IIT is broken down into horizontal and vertical components. Trade patterns for each zone are studied using a harmonized database drawing on the most detailed information available. The determinants of the share of vertical and horizontal IIT are investigated. A robust positive relationship is found between regional integration and intra-industry trade, both vertically and horizontally differentiated

Sectoral and geographical positioning of the EU in the international division of labour

Today’s international trade in goods is driven mainly by the growth of exports and imports of the South. Emerging countries naturally gain global market shares in manufactured goods from old industrialised countries, including Europe. This trend has became even more pronounced during the last years. We use a detailed and exhaustive database on world trade from 1995 to 2003 to study the way in which the EU as a whole, and each of its 25 members individually faced these recent evolutions of the world market, compared to their main economic partners. For simplicity reasons, and because most European countries sell more and better on the domestic (EU) market, we disregard intra-EU trade flows. Our analysis draws on a number economic indicators, including the evolution of market shares, adaptation effects, and the revealed comparative advantage, and on a shift-share decomposition of market share growth. First, we examine the overall evolution of countries’ market shares, their geographical and sectoral specialisation, export performance, and capacity to adapt to changes in the global demand. Secondly, detailed results on the positioning and the performance of exports on different segments of the world market are produced. In both cases trade unit-values data is employed to separate the evolution of exports in monetary (value), and physical (volume) terms. This differentiation is necessary to distinguish between the impact of pure demand, and price-related factors on countries’ exports performance. Unit values are used as well to segment markets according to the quality of traded products according to the principle that high-quality products (up-market) are also the more expensive ones. Nevertheless, besides intrinsic quality this taxonomy reflects additional aspects, such as trade-mark effects or the capacity of countries to sell their products at high prices. EU’s position on the global market has eroded during the last years, because of the poor performance of its largest members (except Germany), and despite the favourable sectoral breakdown of its exports. Still, its losses in market share were considerably smaller than those of its American and Japanese competitors, due mainly to the ability of European firms to sell expensive products to foreign consumers. The EU reinforced or acquired leadership in up-market products in a large number of industries, ranging from leather and clothing to machinery and automobiles. At the same time, European countries suffered important market share losses in the high-technology sector. Moreover, the revealed comparative advantage indicator shows that the EU, contrary to other developed countries, does not exhibit a specialisation in high-technology products. This result is explained by the large and deepening disadvantage of EU countries in down-market high-tech products, such as computer devices. Nevertheless, the EU has maintained and even reinforced its comparative advantage in up-market (high-price/high-quality) high-technology products