Are Stock and Housing Returns Complements or Substitutes? Evidence from OECD Countries

In this paper we use a representative consumer model to analyse the equilibrium relation between the transitory deviations from the common trend among consumption, aggregate wealth, and labour income, cay, and focus on the implications for both stock returns and housing returns. The evidence based on data for 15 OECD countries shows that when agents expect future stock returns to be higher, they will temporarily allow consumption to rise. Regarding housing returns, if housing assets are seen as complements to stocks, then investors react in the same way, but if they are instead treated as substitutes consumption will be temporarily reduced.consumption, wealth, stock returns, housing returns, OECD countries

Consumption, Wealth, Stock and Housing Returns: Evidence from Emerging Markets

In this paper, we show, using the consumer’s budget constraint, that the residuals of the trend relationship among consumption, aggregate wealth, and labour income should predict both stock returns and housing returns. We use quarterly data for a panel of 31 emerging economies and find that, when agents expect future stock returns to be higher, they will temporarily allow consumption to rise. Regarding housing returns, if housing assets are complementary to stocks, then investors react in the same way. If, however, the increase in the exposure through risky assets is achieved by lowering the share of wealth held in the form of housing (i.e., when stock and housing assets are substitutes), then they will temporarily reduce their consumption.consumption, wealth, stock returns, housing returns, emerging markets

Are Stock and Housing Returns Complements or Substitutes?: Evidence from OECD Countries

In this paper we use a representative consumer model to analyse the equilibrium relation between the transitory deviations from the common trend among consumption, aggregate wealth, and labour income, cay, and focus on the implications for both stock returns and housing returns. The evidence based on data for 15 OECD countries shows that when agents expect future stock returns to be higher, they will temporarily allow consumption to rise. Regarding housing returns, if housing assets are seen as complements to stocks, then investors react in the same way, but if they are instead treated as substitutes consumption will be temporarily reduced.consumption, wealth, stock returns, housing returns, OECD countries

Consumption, Wealth, Stock and Housing Returns: Evidence from Emerging Markets

In this paper, we show, using the consumer’s budget constraint, that the residuals of the trend relationship among consumption, aggregate wealth, and labour income should predict both stock returns and housing returns. We use quarterly data for a panel of 31 emerging economies and find that, when agents expect future stock returns to be higher, they will temporarily allow consumption to rise. Regarding housing returns, if housing assets are complementary to stocks, then investors react in the same way. If, however, the increase in the exposure through risky assets is achieved by lowering the share of wealth held in the form of housing (i.e., when stock and housing assets are substitutes), then they will temporarily reduce their consumption.consumption, wealth, stock returns, housing returns, emerging markets

Consumption, Wealth, Stock and Housing Returns: Evidence from Emerging Markets

In this paper, we show, using the consumer's budget constraint, that the residuals of the trend relationship among consumption, aggregate wealth, and labour income should predict both stock returns and housing returns. We use quarterly data for a panel of 31 emerging economies and find that, when agents expect future stock returns to be higher, they will temporarily allow consumption to rise. Regarding housing returns, if housing assets are complementary to stocks, then investors react in the same way. If, however, the increase in the exposure through risky assets is achieved by lowering the share of wealth held in the form of housing (i.e., when stock and housing assets are substitutes), then they will temporarily reduce their consumption.consumption, wealth, stock returns, housing returns, emerging markets

Are Stock and Housing Returns Complements or Substitutes? Evidence from OECD Countries

In this paper we use a representative consumer model to analyse the equilibrium relation between the transitory deviations from the common trend among consumption, aggregate wealth, and labour income, cay, and focus on the implications for both stock returns and housing returns. The evidence based on data for 15 OECD countries shows that when agents expect future stock returns to be higher, they will temporarily allow consumption to rise. Regarding housing returns, if housing assets are seen as complements to stocks, then investors react in the same way, but if they are instead treated as substitutes consumption will be temporarily reduced.consumption, wealth, stock returns, housing returns, OECD countries

Squeezing on momentum states for atom interferometry

We propose and analyse a method that allows for the production of squeezed states of the atomic center-of-mass motion that can be injected into an atom interferometer. Our scheme employs dispersive probing in a ring resonator on a narrow transition of strontium atoms in order to provide a collective measurement of the relative population of two momentum states. We show that this method is applicable to a Bragg diffraction-based atom interferometer with large diffraction orders. The applicability of this technique can be extended also to small diffraction orders and large atom numbers by inducing atomic transparency at the frequency of the probe field, reaching an interferometer phase resolution scaling $\Delta\phi\sim N^{-3/4}$, where $N$ is the atom number. We show that for realistic parameters it is possible to obtain a 20 dB gain in interferometer phase estimation compared to the Standard Quantum Limit.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Parameter Instability and Forecasting Performance. A Monte Carlo Study

This paper uses Monte Carlo techniques to assess the loss in terms of forecast accuracy which is incurred when the true DGP exhibits parameter instability which is either overlooked or incorrectly modelled. We find that the loss is considerable when a FCM is estimated instead of the true TVCM, this loss being an increasing function of the degree of persistence and of the variance of the process driving the slope coefficient. A loss is also incurred when a TVCM different from the correct one is specified, the resulting forecasts being even less accurate than those of a FCM. However, the loss can be minimised by selecting a TVCM which, although incorrect, nests the true one, more specifically an AR(1) model with a constant. Finally, there is hardly any loss resulting from using a TVCM when the underlying DGP is characterised by fixed coefficients.Fixed coefficient model, Time varying parameter models, Forecasting

Nonlinearities and fractional integration in the US unemployment rate

This paper proposes a model of the US unemployment rate which accounts for both its asymmetry and its long memory. Our approach introduces fractional integration and nonlinearities simultaneously into the same framework, using a Lagrange Multiplier procedure with a standard null limit distribution. The empirical results suggest that the US unemployment rate can be specified in terms of a fractionally integrated process, which interacts with some non-linear functions of labour demand variables such as real oil prices and real interest rates. We also find evidence of a long-memory component. Our results are consistent with a hysteresis model with path dependency rather than a NAIRU model with an underlying unemployment equilibrium rate, thereby giving support to more activist stabilisation policies. However, any suitable model should also include business cycle asymmetries, with implications for both forecasting and policy-making.