The Importance of Social and Government Learning in Ex Ante Policy Evaluation

We provide two methodological insights on \emph{ex ante} policy evaluation for macro models of economic development. First, we show that the problems of parameter instability and lack of behavioral constancy can be overcome by considering learning dynamics. Hence, instead of defining social constructs as fixed exogenous parameters, we represent them through stable functional relationships such as social norms. Second, we demonstrate how agent computing can be used for this purpose. By deploying a model of policy prioritization with endogenous government behavior, we estimate the performance of different policy regimes. We find that, while strictly adhering to policy recommendations increases efficiency, the nature of such recipes has a bigger effect. In other words, while it is true that lack of discipline is detrimental to prescription outcomes (a common defense of failed recommendations), it is more important that such prescriptions consider the systemic and adaptive nature of the policymaking process (something neglected by traditional technocratic advice)

The Network Picture of Labor Flow

We construct a data-driven model of flows in graphs that captures the essential elements of the movement of workers between jobs in the companies (firms) of entire economic systems such as countries. The model is based on the observation that certain job transitions between firms are often repeated over time, showing persistent behavior, and suggesting the construction of static graphs to act as the scaffolding for job mobility. Individuals in the job market (the workforce) are modelled by a discrete-time random walk on graphs, where each individual at a node can possess two states: employed or unemployed, and the rates of becoming unemployed and of finding a new job are node dependent parameters. We calculate the steady state solution of the model and compare it to extensive micro-datasets for Mexico and Finland, comprised of hundreds of thousands of firms and individuals. We find that our model possesses the correct behavior for the numbers of employed and unemployed individuals in these countries down to the level of individual firms. Our framework opens the door to a new approach to the analysis of labor mobility at high resolution, with the tantalizing potential for the development of full forecasting methods in the future.Comment: 27 pages, 6 figure

Newtonian gravity and resonance on de-Sitter branes

A dS brane on the boundary between two five-dimensional spacetimes is determined. We consider asymmetric scenarios with AdS${}_5$ vacua at each side of the dS brane; and as a result, a resonant mode inside of the spectrum of the gravitational fluctuations is found. We analyze the deviations to the Newton potential generated by the gravitational excitations, finding that, for scenarios with large values of the cosmological constants, the contribution of the resonant mode is exponentially suppressed. However, when one of the vacua is null, the resonant mode belongs to the light states set of the gravitational fluctuations and five-dimensional gravity is recovered on the dS brane.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figure

Comparing HPV Vaccination Uptake In Democrat And Republican Us States Using Presidential Elections Voting Patterns In 2016 And 2020

Abstract Objective: To investigate the association between state-level voting patterns and Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage in teenagers in the US. Methods: States were categorized as either Democratic or Republican based on the 2016 and 2020 Presidential election results. A paired t-test was conducted to examine the difference between vaccination coverage between the two groups. A multivariable linear regression model was conducted to examine how state-voting patterns are associated with HPV vaccination coverage after adjusting for confounding (percentage of people living in poverty, percentage of uninsured people, percentage of non-white population, and the percentage of people living in rural areas for each state). Results: In 2016, there was a statistical significance in HPV vaccine coverage with at least one dose among Republican and Democrat states (55.7% and 67.0% respectively,

Frictional Unemployment on Labor Flow Networks

We develop an alternative theory to the aggregate matching function in which workers search for jobs through a network of firms: the labor flow network. The lack of an edge between two companies indicates the impossibility of labor flows between them due to high frictions. In equilibrium, firms' hiring behavior correlates through the network, generating highly disaggregated local unemployment. Hence, aggregation depends on the topology of the network in non-trivial ways. This theory provides new micro-foundations for the Beveridge curve, wage dispersion, and the employer-size premium. We apply our model to employer-employee matched records and find that network topologies with Pareto-distributed connections cause disproportionately large changes on aggregate unemployment under high labor supply elasticity

El fin de la nueva Gerencia Pública

The article analyzes the theoretical grounds of New Public Management, as well as the limitations faced by administrative reforms based on this school of thought. It is stated that New Public Management has its theoretical support on neoliberalism, where it obtains a body of doctrine to support its development. The exhaustion of neoliberalism and above all, its theoretical limitations, have marked the end of New Public Management. In that line, the author states that a new agenda is required, where the State is in the centre, and where public administration is thought from the citizen, instead of the customer.El artículo analiza las bases teóricas de la Nueva Gerencia Pública, y las limitacionesque han enfrentado las reformas administrativas basadas en esta corriente de pensamiento. Se plantea que la Nueva Gerencia Pública encuentra su sustento teórico en el neoliberalismo, y que en él obtiene un cuerpo de doctrina para sustentar su desarrollo. El agotamiento del neoliberalismo, pero sobre todo sus limitaciones teóricas, han marcado el fin la Nueva Gerencia Pública. En esa línea, el autor afirma que se requiere una nueva agenda, en la que el Estado se encuentre en el centro, y en la que se piense la administración pública desde la ciudadanía, y no desde la clientela