UK energy strategies under uncertainty: synthesis report

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Ofgem RIIO-2 Consultation : Response from the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC)

The RIIO (Revenue=Incentives+Innovation+Outputs) model, introduced in 2013, is designed to ensure that payments to companies running the gas and electricity transmission and distribution networks are fair to network users and permit the recovery of reasonable costs in developing, maintaining and operating the networks. The network licensees’ allowed revenue is linked to their performance and should therefore offer them incentives for securing investment, driving innovation and delivering the service that customers expect. However, some commentators have suggested that the licensees have been making unjustified profits. With network charges making up around a quarter of the average household energy bill, it is anticipated that the new price control framework will be tougher and provide lower expected returns for network licensees. The RIIO-2 framework consultation is welcome. Ofgem’s final view on price control allowances will be published by the end of 2020 with the new network price controls ('RIIO-2') due to be implemented in 2021. General comments In our submission we responded to the individual points raised in the call. We also note the following: We support the proposal to reduce the price control period from 8 to 5 years. The energy system is undergoing unprecedented change, not only with continued transformation of the generation background but also major changes to the way electricity is used, such as for transport and heating. However, the rate and precise locations of these changes is uncertain. A shorter price control period will provide the opportunity for incentives and cost recovery to be adapted to the changing circumstances. Maintenance of acceptable levels of reliability while facilitating the energy system transformation at least cost requires substantial innovation in technologies, business processes and commercial arrangements. The development of new innovations and associated benefits to consumers often takes years to be realised, sometimes beyond a price control period in which network company shareholders would expect a return. We therefore support the proposal to retain dedicated innovation funding but encourage greater clarity on the scope of activities that can make use of such funding and on best practice in the generation and dissemination of evidence on proposed innovations. We welcome moves to increase the accountability of the network companies and would urge Ofgem to concentrate on those measures that have a genuine and positive impact on the network companies’ activities in the context of the whole energy system. We note that this is not restricted to the business plans submitted under RIIO-2 but extends to a whole raft of codes and interactions. These include the evolving responsibilities of the Electricity System Operator (ESO), the relationships between the ESO, the transmission owners and the Distribution Network Operators, and the processes for ensuring that the full set of codes, standards and market arrangements are coherent and fit for purpose. This is a challenging task that requires constant attention to ‘the big picture’ and sufficient resources, commitment and expertise on the part of the network owners, system operators and Ofgem. In applying tighter controls that avoid excessive returns to the network licensees’ owners, the upside and downside risks should be clearly assessed and incentives for managing risk placed on those parties best placed to do so

On demand: can demand response live up to expectations in managing electricity systems?

Residential demand response (meaning changes to electricity use at specific times) has been proposed as an important part of the low carbon energy system transition. Modelling studies suggest benefits may include deferral of distribution network reinforcement, reduced curtailment of wind generation, and avoided investment in reserve generation. To accurately assess the contribution of demand response such studies must be supported by realistic assumptions on consumer participation. A systematic review of international evidence on trials, surveys and programmes of residential demand response suggests that it is important that these assumptions about demand response are not overly optimistic. Customer participation in trials and existing programmes is often 10% or less of the target population, while responses of consumers in existing schemes have varied considerably for a complex set of reasons. Relatively little evidence was identified for engagement with more dynamic forms of demand response, making its wider applicability uncertain. The evidence suggests that the high levels of demand response modelled in some future energy system scenarios may be more than a little optimistic. There is good evidence on the potential of some of the least ‘smart’ options, such as static peak pricing and load control, which are well established and proven. More research and greater empirical evidence is needed to establish the potential role of more innovative and dynami

The UK bio-energy resource base to 2050: estimates, assumptions, and uncertainties Working Paper

The UK Energy Research Centre is the focal point for UK research on sustainable energy. It takes a whole systems approach to energy research, drawing on engineering, economics and the physical, environmental and social sciences. The Centre's role is to promote cohesion within the overall UK energy research effort, acting as a bridge between the UK energy research community and the wider world, including business, policymakers and the international energy research community. Preface This report has been produced by the UK Energy Research Centre"s Technology and Policy Assessment (TPA) function. The TPA was set up to address key controversies in the energy field through comprehensive assessments of the current state of knowledge. It aims to provide authoritative reports that set high standards for rigour and transparency, while explaining results in a way that is useful to policymakers. This report precedes a TPA study of some of the key issues which face the deployment of bio-energy resources in the period to 2050. The objective of this report was to review existing estimates of the UK resource base and identify the most important assumptions and uncertainties affecting estimates of the domestic resource potential. It was envisaged that this would inform the scope of the subsequent bio-energy TPA. A secondary objective was to assist DECC develop bio-energy route maps, promised under the UK"s 2009 Low Carbon Transition Plan

A systematic review of motivations, enablers and barriers for consumer engagement with residential demand response

Demand response is increasingly attracting policy attention. It involves changing electricity demand at different times based on grid conditions, which could help to integrate variable renewable generation and new electric loads associated with decarbonisation. Residential consumers could offer a substantial new source of demand-side flexibility. However, while there is considerable evidence that at least some residential users engage with at least some forms of demand response, there is also considerable variation in user engagement. Better understanding this variation could help to predict demand response potential, and to engage and protect consumers participating in demand response. Based on a systematic review of international demand response trials, programmes and surveys, we identify motivations for participation, and barriers and enablers to engagement including familiarity and trust, perceived risk and control, complexity and effort, and consumer characteristics and routines. We then discuss how these factors relate to the features of different demand response products and services. While the complexity of the evidence makes it difficult to draw unequivocal conclusions, the findings of this review could contribute to guide early efforts to deploy residential demand response more widely

Positron emission tomography detects evidence of viability in rest technetium-99m sestamibi defects

AbstractObjectives. The purpose of this study was to determine the relative value of single-photon emission computed tomographic (SPECT) imaging at rest using technetium-99m methoxyisobutyl isonitrile (technetium-99m sestamibi) with positron emission tomography for detection of viable myocardium.Background. Recent studies comparing positron emission tomography and thallium-201 reinjection with rest technetium-99m sestamibi imaging have suggested that the latter technique underestimates myocardial viability.Methods. Twenty patients with a previous myocardial infarction underwent rest technetium-99m sestamibi imaging and positron emission tomography using fluorine (F)-18 deoxyglucose and nitrogen (N)-13 ammonia. In each patient, circumferential profile analysis was used to determine technetium-99m sestamibi, F-18 deoxyglucose and N-13 ammonia activity (expressed as percent of peak activity) in nine cardiac segments and in the perfusion defect defined by the area having technetium-99m sestamibi activity <60%. Technetium-99m sestamibi defects were graded as moderate (50% to 59% of peak activity) and severe (<50% of peak activity). Estimates of perfusion defect size were compared between technetium-99m sestamibi and N-13 ammonia.Results. Sixteen (53%) of 30 segments with moderate defects and 16 (47%) of 34 segments with severe defects had ≥60% F-18 deoxyglocose activity considered indicative of viability. Fluorine-18 deoxyglucose evidence of viability was still present in 50% of segments with technetium-99m sestamibi activity <40%. There was no significant difference in the mean (± SD) technetium-99m sestamibi activity in segments with viable (40 ± 7%) and nonviable segments (49 ± 7%, p = 0.84). Of the 18 patients who had adequate F-18 deoxyglucose studies, the area of the technetium-99m sestamibi defect was viable in 5 (28%). In 16 patients (80%), perfusion defect size determined by technetium-99m sestamibi exceeded that measured by N-13 ammonia. The difference in defect size between technetium-99m sestamibi and N-13 ammonia was significantly greater in patients with viable (21 ± 9%) versus nonviable segments (7 ± 9%, p = 0.007).Conclusions. Moderate and severe rest technetium-99m sestamibi defects frequently have metabolic evidence of viability. Technetium-99m sestamibi SPECT yields larger perfusion defects than does N-13 ammonia positron emission tomography when the same threshold values are used

Electric Insights - Quarterly : January to June 2022

After a 12 month hiatus Electric Insights is back, relaunching into one of the most turbulent times in Britain’s electricity system’s history. Our first article focuses on the cost-of-living crisis that is engulfing the nation, and the central role played by energy prices. The wholesale cost of coal and gas have risen to 5-10 times their usual levels over the past two years, and as gas is the largest source of electricity production, the cost of power has shot up too. These price rises have made their way into consumer bills, bringing extreme hardship for households, businesses and industrial consumers alike. The price of fossil fuels over the last three years, relative to their averages from 2010-19 These huge price rises have sparked intense debate about whether energy markets are fundamentally broken, who is profiting from the crisis, and should they be allowed to? Our second article explores whether renewables are being paid more than they should, and the government’s Review of Electricity Market Arrangements which is exploring these topics. These problems are not just limited to the UK: energy prices have been spiralling upwards across the whole of Europe. Several factors are colliding on the continent, including gas shortages in Germany and prolonged nuclear outages in France, meaning Europe’s power systems are facing additional pressures. So, despite British electricity being more expensive than ever, it is cheap in comparison to our European neighbours. Our third article details how Britain has become a net exporter of electricity for the first time in 10 years, with 5% of the electricity generated here sent abroad over the last three months. This comes at a time when Britain’s energy security is becoming a cause for concern. This situation has been complicated further by the extreme weather affecting the UK and much of the world. This summer saw a series of unrelenting heat waves, with temperatures soaring past 40°C for the first time ever, coupled with the driest start to the year ever recorded. We examine how the extreme heat has impacted electricity demand and supply, and the longer-term implications for the power system

Which doctors and with what problems contact a specialist service for doctors? A cross sectional investigation

Background: In the United Kingdom, specialist treatment and intervention services for doctors are underdeveloped. The MedNet programme, created in 1997 and funded by the London Deanery, aims to fill this gap by providing a self-referral, face-to-face, psychotherapeutic assessment service for doctors in London and South-East England. MedNet was designed to be a low-threshold service, targeting doctors without formal psychiatric problems. The aim of this study was to delineate the characteristics of doctors utilising the service, to describe their psychological morbidity, and to determine if early intervention is achieved. Methods: A cross-sectional study including all consecutive self-referred doctors (n = 121, 50% male) presenting in 2002–2004 was conducted. Measures included standardised and bespoke questionnaires both self-report and clinician completed. The multi-dimensional evaluation included: demographics, CORE (CORE-OM, CORE-Workplace and CORE-A) an instrument designed to evaluate the psychological difficulties of patients referred to outpatient services, Brief Symptom Inventory to quantify caseness and formal psychiatric illness, and Maslach Burnout Inventory. Results: The most prevalent presenting problems included depression, anxiety, interpersonal, self-esteem and work-related issues. However, only 9% of the cohort were identified as severely distressed psychiatrically using this measure. In approximately 50% of the sample, problems first presented in the preceding year. About 25% were on sick leave at the time of consultation, while 50% took little or no leave in the prior 12 months. A total of 42% were considered to be at some risk of suicide, with more than 25% considered to have a moderate to severe risk. There were no significant gender differences in type of morbidity, severity or days off sick. Conclusion: Doctors displayed high levels of distress as reflected in the significant proportion of those who were at some risk of suicide; however, low rates of severe psychiatric illness were detected. These findings suggest that MedNet clients represent both ends of the spectrum of severity, enabling early clinical engagement for a significant proportion of cases that is of importance both in terms of personal health and protecting patient care, and providing a timely intervention for those who are at risk, a group for whom rapid intervention services are in need and an area that requires further investigation in the UK

A relational approach to characterizing householder perceptions of disruption in heat transitions

Heat decarbonization threatens substantial disruptions in temperate countries. However, the concept of disruption carries diverse meanings, potentially relating to cost, material space and everyday heating practices. Here, using interpretive risk theory, this article elucidates a relational understanding of how disruption is experienced and takes on meaning in everyday life. We deploy this framework to examine perceptions of four low-carbon heating technologies—heat pumps, hydrogen, hybrid heating and heat networks—alongside associated upgrades to distribution network infrastructure. Drawing on data from six, 1-day workshops representing a diversity of geographic and housing contexts across the United Kingdom, we address how existing relationships shape hopes, fears and expectations for heat decarbonization. Our findings help clarify the role of affective relationships, feelings of precarity, security and pressure in distinguishing material inconveniences from more fundamental disruptions to valued ways of life, and may be particularly relevant in other gas-dependent countries and regions