How useful are integrated household survey data for policy-oriented analysis of poverty? Lessons from the Cote d'Ivoire living standards survey

The author reflects on the pros and cons of using integrated household survey data in empirical analysis aimed at providing a quantitative basis for policy decisions affecting welfare, poverty, and the fulfillment of basic needs. The experience examined is that of using four years of data from the Cote d'Ivoire Living Standards Survey (1985-88) to link changes in poverty and welfare to macroeconomic trends. The author groups the lessons learned from this work around four themes. Survey content: when survey data are rich, transparency of methodology is important. It is essential that analysts provide explicit information about how their income and spending aggregates were constructed. These aggregates must be deflated with a regional price index, but prices should be collected separately from household survey data. Data on household spending and basic needs fulfillment are the key information for poverty analysis. Sample size and design: bigger and simpler is better. The author recommends increasing (at least double) sample size in future living standards surveys; this could be done without increasing the cost of the survey by reducing or eliminating the income modules of the questionnaire. It is important to involve analysts and policymakers in survey design. They need to identify up front, using current knowledge, the important socioeconomic and target groups on which the survey must be able to report. The sample designer can then compose the sample in such a way that certain groups will be undersampled and others oversampled, to make the analysis of the resulting sample as useful as possible. Frequency of data collection: the author recommends that an integrated survey of the CILSS type be undertaken every four or five years, to provide benchmark data and to permit in-depth analysis of household behavior and response to policy, if the country has the capability to fully analyze the data. In the intervening years, a much simpler collection of household spending and basic needs data can be used to monitor changes in welfare and poverty. The role of panel data: to be really useful, panel data collection should be extended over longer periods than two years, although this increases the costs and difficulties of finding the same households. If a country undertakes an integrated survey every four to five years and alighter monitoring survey in between, a small, parallel, panel survey could be conducted. The monitoring sample and the panel sample should be drawn from the same master sample.Health Economics&Finance,Poverty Assessment,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Poverty Lines,Environmental Economics&Policies

The lucky few amidst economic decline : distributional change in Cote d'Ivoire as seen through panel data sets, 1985-88

Cote d'Ivoire's economy declined drastically in the second half of the 1980s. The incidence of poverty climbed from 30 percent in 1985 to 35 percent in 1987, and jumped to 46 percent in 1988. But how widespread was the collapse in living standards? Did a lucky few escape the decline? Using panels of data from the Cote d'Ivoire Living Standards Survey (for 1985-86, 1986-87, and 1987-88) allowed the authors to track the level of living for the same households over successive years. These panels had not yet been used to examine the dynamics of poverty in the second half of the 1980s. They find that two-period poverty was generally less than poverty measured from single-period snapshots. Surprisingly, a significant number of the poorest of the poor improve their status over the two years of the panel, even though there was a downturn in the average fortunes of the poor. The authors find that thelucky few are not so few. They were wide-spread regionally - though in some socioeconomic groupings, the poor had a greater chance to escape poverty amidst the general decline in living standards. Finer investigation of the characteristics of these groupings is hampered somewhat by the small sample sizes of the panels.Poverty Assessment,Poverty Reduction Strategies,Services&Transfers to Poor,Safety Nets and Transfers,Rural Poverty Reduction

Child labor : a review

On September 30, 1990, the first World Summit for Children promised to reduce child mortality and malnutrition. It set targets to be reached by the year 2000. Although it established no explicit goals on child labor, the targets included basic education for all children and the completion of primary education by at least 80 percent of children. Meeting these goals will reduce child labor, say the authors. The evidence they review shows that education intervention play a key role in reducing child labor and should play a key role in its eventual abolition. But other interventions are also needed, including legislative action, appropriate labor market policies, fertility interventions, the adoption of technology, and better job opportunities for parents. There must also be advocates for better conditions for working children and for the empowerment of children and their families. An encouraging consensus is emerging - both in the literature and in the policies of international agencies concerned with child labor - that action, to be effective, must aim first to protect children and improve their living and working conditions. This implies a less stigmatized view of child labor, and the recognition that child labor itself can be used as a targeting device to help children through health, nutrition, schooling, and other interventions. In the long term, the objective of eliminating child labor must be approached through legislative action combined with social and economic incentives that take into account not only the types of child labor and child labor arrangements in a country but that country's institutional and administrative capacity.Children and Youth,Labor Policies,Street Children,Environmental Economics&Policies,Public Health Promotion,Health Economics&Finance,Street Children,Youth and Governance,Children and Youth,Environmental Economics&Policies

Poverty correlates and indicator-based targeting in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union

The authors compare poverty in three Eastern European countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, and Poland) with poverty in three countries of the former Soviet Union (Estonia, Kyrgyz Republic, and Russia). They find striking differences between the post-Soviet and Eastern European experiences with poverty and targeting. Among patterns detected: a)Poverty in Eastern Europe is significantly lower than in former Soviet Union countries. b) Rural poverty is greater than urban poverty. c) In Eastern Europe there is a strong correlation between poverty incidence and the number of children in a household; in the former Soviet Union countries this is less pronounced, except in Russia. d) There is a gender and age dimension to poverty in some countries. In single-person households, especially of elder women, the poverty rate is very high (except in Poland) and poverty is more severe. The same is true in pensioner households (except in Poland). In Poland the pension system has adequate reach. e) Poverty rates are highest among people who have lost their connection with the labor market and live on social transfers (other than pensions) or other nonearned income. But through sheer mass, the largest group of poor people is the working poor -- especially workers with little education (primary education or less) or outdated vocational or technical education. Only those with special skills or university education escape poverty in great numbers, thanks to the demand for their skills from the newly emerging private sector. f) The poverty gap is remarkably uniform in Eastern European countries, especially Hungary and Poland, suggesting that social safety nets have prevented the emergence of deep pockets of poverty. This is much less true in the former Soviet Union, where those with the highest poverty rate also have the largest poverty gap. In the short to medium term, creating employment in the informal sector will generate a larger payoff than creating jobs in the formal (still to be privatized) sectors, so programs to help (prospective) entrepreneurs should take center stage in poverty alleviation programs.Public Health Promotion,Services&Transfers to Poor,Poverty ReductionStrategies,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Poverty Assessment,Environmental Economics&Policies,Safety Nets and Transfers,Rural Poverty Reduction,Services&Transfers to Poor

Correcting for sampling bias in the measurement of welfare and poverty : the case of the Cote d'Ivoire living standards survey

Over the years, household surveys have become a popular, valuable data source for empirical research in microeconomics. In developing countries, household survey data have become more available in the past decade, as a result of several international programs. This has spurred interest in the economics of the household in the context of development economics. Many analysts give little attention to the sampling design of the surveys they use, taking the data produced by statisticians and survey practitioners as is. At best, sampling weights are applied to ensure that the results are representative. The authors illustrate the need to pay close attention to the sampling aspects of a household survey used in applied microeconomic analysis - particularly for comparisons over time. This case study shows that observed changes in household welfare and in the incidence of poverty in Cote d'Ivoire between 1985 and 1988 vanish when corrections are applied to the data for changes in sampling procedures; even the direction of the trend is reversed. Similarly, the cross-sectional patterns of welfare and poverty observed in earlier analyses for 1985-86 prove to be incorrect. The Cote d'Ivoire Living Standards Survey, conducted between 1985 and 1988, has provided a popular, fruitful data set for policy analysis. But according to the authors, the recorded decline in mean household size during this period is due to sampling bias in the early years of the survey. If this is true, the robustness of the analyses based on these data is questionable.Poverty Assessment,Poverty Lines,Science Education,Scientific Research&Science Parks,VN-Acb Mis -- IFC-00535908

Teacher-nonteacher pay differences in Cote d'Ivoire

Because base salaries for teachers in Cote d'Ivoire are higher than wages of workers in other occupations, there is some question about whether teachers are overpaid. This paper used multivariate analysis based on the monthly wage rate functions to investigate the differences between teachers andother occupations. It was found that the base salaries for teachers contained an economic rent component, largely due to the wage setting behaviour of the Ivorian government. This salary premium disappears, however, when the total renumeration package is considered, i.e. including in-kind benefits, bonuses and commissions, which are more widely received by non-teachers. Policymakers should thus be cautious when considering budget cuts that would lower teachers salaries, cuts certain to make the teaching profession less attractive.Teaching and Learning,Gender and Education,Primary Education,Girls Education,Skills Development and Labor Force Training

Local institutions, poverty, and household welfare in Bolivia

The authors empirically estimate the impact of social capital on household welfare in Bolivia--where they found 67 different types of local associations. They focus on household memberships in local associations as being especially relevant to daily decisions that affect household welfare and consumption. On average, households belong to 1.4 groups and associations: 62 percent belong to agrarian syndicates, 16 percent to production groups, 13 percent to social service groups, and 10 percent to education and health groups. Smaller numbers belong to religious and government groups. Agrarian syndicates, created by government decree in 1952, are now viewed mainly as community-initiated institutions to manage conmunal resources. They have been registered as legal entities to work closely with municipalities to represent the interests and priorities of local people in municipal decisionmaking. The effects of social capital operate through (at least) three mechanisms: sharing of information among association members; the reduction of opportunistic behavior; and better collective decisionmaking. The effect of social capital on household welfare was found to be 2.5 times that of human capital. Increasing the average educational endowment of each adult in the household by one year (about a 2.5-percent increase) would increase per capita household spending 4.2 percent; a similar increase in the social capital endowment would increase spending 9 to 10.5 percent. They measured social capital along six dimensions: density of memberships, internal heterogeneity of associations (by gender, age, education, religion, etc.), meeting attendance, active participation in decisionmaking, payment of dues (in cash and in kind), and community orientation. The strongest effect came from number of memberships. Active membership in an agrarian syndicate is associated with an average 11.5 percent increase in household spending. Membership in another local association is associated with a 5.3-percent higher spending level. Empirical results partly confirm the hypothesis that social capital provides long-term benefits such as better access to credit and a higher level of trust in the community as a source of assistance in case of need.Public Health Promotion,Community Development and Empowerment,Social Inclusion&Institutions,Education and Society,ICT Policy and Strategies,Poverty Assessment,Governance Indicators,Social Capital,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Urban Partnerships&Poverty

The evolution of welfare and poverty under structural change and economic recession in Cote d'Ivoire, 1985-88

The author demonstrates what can happen to the welfare of households and individuals, and to poverty, in a low- to middle-income country, under structural adjustment and recession. Cote d'Ivoire was one of the first African countries to launch a structural adjustment program with support from the World Bank and the IMF. The program was sustained for six years (1981-86), then abandoned in 1987-88 when a severe recession hit the country. A new economic recovery program was initiated in 1989. Cote d'Ivoire presents a unique case study - certainly in Africa - because four consecutive years of comprehensive data on levels of living are available for the period 1985-88, from the Cote d'Ivoire Living Standards Survey. The first two years of data capture the situation at the end of a sustained adjustment effort, when the economy was growing moderately; the last two years capture a period of pronounced macroeconomic decline and destabilization. The author found that in the first period, the incidence of poverty remained steady and the welfare level of the pooractually rose. In 1987, on the other hand, poverty and extreme poverty both became more widespread - a trend that accelerated dramatically in 1988, when the incidence of poverty rose from 35 percent to 46 percent. Over 1985-88, the regional and socioeconomic patterns of poverty changed markedly. The most important shift was the rapid increase in urban poverty. Especially households of public sector employees and those working in the informal sector were hardest hit. Farmers appear to have benefitted during the final years of the adjustment phase, while poverty incidence among them increased sharply in 1987-88, especially among export crop farmers. This occurred in spite of continued maintenance of producer prices, suggesting that price support alone is not sufficient to protect farm incomes. The entire system of agricultural support must be maintained and improved. The author found that basic needs fulfillment did not decline as much as expenditure. But the burden of whatever declines did occur fell disproportionately on the very poor. The targeted provision of public services (health, education, tap water, and so on) is thus a high priority.Poverty Lines,Achieving Shared Growth,Health Economics&Finance,Poverty Assessment,Environmental Economics&Policies

Poverty and social transfers in Poland

Since January 1990, Poland's social safety net has changed greatly. Unemployment benefits were introduced, for example, because of escalating unemployment (about 15 percent of the labor force at the end of 1993). The cost of the social safety net has risen sharply since the transition began, both absolutely and as a fraction of GDP. In 1993, social transfers accounted for 18.7 percent of GDP, as follows: 1) pensions=14.9 percent; 2) unemployment benefits=1.9 percent; 3) family allowance and other social insurance=1.4 percent; and 4) social assistance=0.5 percent. To investigate the present system's impact on income distribution, the author uses the household budget survey data for January-June 1993, the first complete survey of the Polish population. The conventional benchmark for measuring poverty in Poland, the social minimum, has become largely irrelevant, as 55 percent of the people fall below that spending level. Using two other measures, the author finds that in 1993 26.3 percent of the population had an expenditure level (per adult equivalent) below the minimum wage, and 14.4 percent were spending at a level below the minimum pension. He discusses four proposals for improving the ability of social transfers (other than pensions) to reduce poverty. These proposals are either budget-neutral or imply only modest increases in the total amount of transfers. One, income-testing the family allowance and doubling that amount for large households. This would reduce poverty from 14.4 to 13.2 percent - and, among large households, from 43 to 28 percent. Two, reducing eligibility for the family allowance from 20 to 18 years and taxing the allowance; providing income-tested daycare vouchers for young children. This would make the family allowancee more progressive. Reducing eligibility and taxing the allowance would raise poverty about one percent point, which would be largely offset by the daycare vouchers. Three, improving income testing for social assistance. More than half or current beneficiaries are not poor. A 20 percent improvement in targeting would reduce poverty by about 0.3 percentage points. Four, extending eligibility for unemployment benefits for low-skilled unemployed members of the labor force in large households. This would increase benefits by about 7 percent, but reduce poverty about 0.4 percent points - benefiting especially the poorest part of the population.Public Health Promotion,Services&Transfers to Poor,Environmental Economics&Policies,Poverty Reduction Strategies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Services&Transfers to Poor,Rural Poverty Reduction,Safety Nets and Transfers,Environmental Economics&Policies,Poverty Assessment

Child labor in Cote d'Ivoire: incidence and determinants

Child labor in Cote d'Ivoire increased in the 1980s because of a severe economic crisis. Two out of three urban children aged 7 to 17 work; half of them also attend school. In rural areas, more than four out of five children work, but only a third of them manage to combine work with schooling. Full-time work is less prevalent, but not negligible. Roughly 7 percent of urban children work full time (an average 46 hours a week). More than a third of rural children work full time (an average of 35 hours a week), with the highest incidence in the Savannah region. The incidence of such full-time work rises with age but is by no means limited to older children. The average age of the full-time child worker in Cote d'Ivoire is 12.7. These children have received an average 1.2 years of schooling. That child is also more likely to be ill or injured and is less likely to receive medical attention than other children. Urban children in the interior cities are far more likely to work and their working hours are much longer. Among rural children, those in the Savannah region (where educational infrastructure lags far behind the rest of the country) are most likely to work. Five factors affect a household's decision to supply child labor: a) The age and gender of the child (girls are more likely to work, especially when the head of household is a woman). b) The education and employment status of the parents (low parental education is good targeting variable for interventions). c) The availability of within-household employment opportunities. d) The household's poverty status. e) The household's location (calling for geographical targeting). With improved macroeconomic growth, it is hoped, child labor will decline -- but a significant decline could take several generations. Meanwhile, it is important to: i) Use a gradual approach toward the elimination of child work by aiming initial interventions at facilitating combined work and schooling. ii) Support the development of home enterprises as part of poverty alleviation programs, but combine it with incentives for school attendance. iii) Make school hours and vacation periods flexible (accommodating harvest times) in rural areas. This would also improve children's health. iv) Improve rural school attendance by having a school in the village rather than 1 to 5 kilometers away. v) Improve educational investment in the Savannah.Children and Youth,Public Health Promotion,Labor Policies,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Poverty Assessment,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Street Children,Youth and Governance,Children and Youth