Debris disk size distributions: steady state collisional evolution with P-R drag and other loss processes

We present a new scheme for determining the shape of the size distribution, and its evolution, for collisional cascades of planetesimals undergoing destructive collisions and loss processes like Poynting-Robertson drag. The scheme treats the steady state portion of the cascade by equating mass loss and gain in each size bin; the smallest particles are expected to reach steady state on their collision timescale, while larger particles retain their primordial distribution. For collision-dominated disks, steady state means that mass loss rates in logarithmic size bins are independent of size. This prescription reproduces the expected two phase size distribution, with ripples above the blow-out size, and above the transition to gravity-dominated planetesimal strength. The scheme also reproduces the expected evolution of disk mass, and of dust mass, but is computationally much faster than evolving distributions forward in time. For low-mass disks, P-R drag causes a turnover at small sizes to a size distribution that is set by the redistribution function (the mass distribution of fragments produced in collisions). Thus information about the redistribution function may be recovered by measuring the size distribution of particles undergoing loss by P-R drag, such as that traced by particles accreted onto Earth. Although cross-sectional area drops with 1/age^2 in the PR-dominated regime, dust mass falls as 1/age^2.8, underlining the importance of understanding which particle sizes contribute to an observation when considering how disk detectability evolves. Other loss processes are readily incorporated; we also discuss generalised power law loss rates, dynamical depletion, realistic radiation forces and stellar wind drag.Comment: Accepted for publication by Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy (special issue on EXOPLANETS

Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced

Canopy cover mediates interactions between a specialist caterpillar and seedlings of a neotropical tree

1 Light availability may be crucial for understanding dynamics of plant–herbivore interactions in temperate and tropical forest communities. This is because local light availability can influence both tree seedling tolerance and susceptibility to herbivory – yet how they mediate levels of insect herbivory that vary with the density of host population is virtually unknown. Here we tested predictions of three key, non-mutually exclusive hypotheses of plant–herbivore interactions: the Limiting Resource Model (LRM), the Plant Vigour Hypothesis (PVH), and the Janzen-Connell Mechanism (JCM). 2 In an Amazonian forest, we planted Swietenia macrophylla seedlings (c. 5 months old) into natural canopy gaps and the shaded understorey and simulated the damage patterns of the specialist herbivore moth, Steniscadia poliophaea, by clipping seedling leaves. Over the next 8 months, we monitored seedling performance in terms of growth and survivorship and also quantified herbivory to new young leaves on a seasonal basis. 3 In support of the LRM, severe leaf damage (≥ 50%) was lethal for Swietenia macrophylla seedlings in the understorey, but in gaps only reduced seedling growth. In support of the PVH, gap seedlings suffered greater post-simulated herbivory (up to 100% defoliation) by S. poliophaea caterpillars than their understorey counterparts. 4 Adding a novel dimension to the Janzen–Connell hypothesis, we found that early wet season herbivory of seedlings in gaps increased with conspecific adult density within a 125-m radius; whereas in the understorey only those seedlings within 50 m of a Swietenia tree were attacked by caterpillars. 5 Synthesis. These results suggest lepidopterans that need young leaves for food may forage more widely in forests to find seedlings in light-rich canopy gaps. Moths may achieve this successfully by being first attracted to gaps, and then searching within them for suitable hosts. A conceptual model, integrating conspecific adult tree density with light-driven changes in seedling tolerance/vigour and their susceptibility to herbivory and mortality, is presented. Spatial variation in the light available to tree seedlings often affects their tolerance and vigour, which may have important consequences for leaf-chewing insects and the scale of density-dependent herbivory in forests