A Fifty-Year Sustainability Assessment of Italian Agro-Forest Districts

DistrictAs cropland management and land use shifted towards more intensive practices, global land degradation increased drastically. Understanding relationships between ecological and socioeconomic drivers of soil and landscape degradation within these landscapes in economically dynamic contexts such as the Mediterranean region, requires multi-target and multi-scalar approaches covering long-term periods. This study provides an original approach for identifying desertification risk drivers and sustainable land management strategies within Italian agro-forest districts. An Environmental Sensitivity Area (ESA) approach, based on four thematic indicators (climate, soil, vegetation and land-use) and a composite index of desertification risk (ESAI), was used to evaluate changes in soil vulnerability and landscape degradation between the years 1960 and 2010. A multivariate model was developed to identify the most relevant drivers causing changes in land susceptibility at the district scale. Larger districts, and those with a higher proportion of their total surface area classified as agro-forest, had a significantly lower increase in land susceptibility to degradation during the 50 years when compared with the remaining districts. We conclude that preserving economic viability and ecological connectivity of traditional, extensive agricultural systems is a key measure to mitigate the desertification risk in the Mediterranean region

Crisis-driven changes in construction patterns: evidence from building permits in a Mediterranean city

This study aimed to describe the construction sector’s response to the 2007–2008 recession based on the spatial analysis of 10 building activity indicators over a 25-year period (1990–2014) in Athens, Greece. Expansion and recession cycles influenced the average values of four indicators (density of new buildings, average floors per new building, density of enlarged buildings and building permits per inhabitant) without altering their spatial pattern. By contrast, the spatial distribution of six indicators (proportion of small-sized dwellings, average surface area of new buildings, average number of floors in enlarged buildings, average surface area of enlarged buildings, volume ratio of enlarged buildings compared to new buildings and ratio of new building surface area to the absolute population increase) became more heterogeneous during the study period. Local-scale indicators derived from building-permits data provide insights into building cycles, shedding light on the short-term effects of the recent crisis on the construction sector

New wine in old bottles: The (changing) socioeconomic attributes of sprawl during building boom and stagnation

European cities have shifted since decades to a more scattered urban model with relevant changes in the local socioeconomic context. This study compares the socioeconomic profile of discontinuous and continuous settlements along the urban gradient in Rome, Italy, during building boom (early-1970s) and stagnation (late-2000s) with the aim to identify suburbanization drivers associated with different urban patterns. Non-parametric correlation statistics and multivariate techniques were used to assess the spatio-temporal evolution of 24 socioeconomic indicators (population, settlement, labor market, economic structure) and 14 landscape/territorial indicators at the local scale (urban districts and municipalities). The socioeconomic context characterizing discontinuous settlements in the early 1970s was significantly different from what observed in the late 2000s, prefiguring distinct sprawl models. Economic structure and labor market variables discriminated discontinuous settlements from continuous settlements in the early 1970s. Demographic variables and a mixed composition of the natural landscape surrounding discontinuous settlements were more relevant in the late 2000s. Policies oriented to urban sustainability and sprawl containment may benefit from an in-depth understanding of the different socioeconomic contexts associated with scattered settlements in expansion and recession times

Uneven dispersion or adaptive polycentrism? Urban expansion, population dynamics and employment growth in an 'ordinary' city

Compact and mono-centric cities in southern Europe have recently experienced a chaotic expansion, in partial contrast with the spatially-balanced development typical of western European cities. Our study investigates long-term changes (1951-2011) in the spatial structure of Naples - a representative example of compact cities grown through sequential urbanization waves - discussing the weakness of its actual metropolitan organization, considered spatially-unbalanced and with a limited potential to growth. Changes over time in the spatial distribution of three variables at the municipal scale (resident population, total workers, employees in industry and services) were analyzed with the aim to identify deviations from a mono-centric growth model. Descriptive statistics and maps, non-parametric correlations and principal component analysis were used to assess spatio-temporal trends in Naples' expansion over different economic cycles with the final objective to discriminate 'residential suburbanization' from a polycentric development based on the consolidation of 'employment sub-centres'. The Naples' metropolitan region was characterized by persistent divides between urban and suburban areas, with downtown Naples concentrating a relevant share of jobs in the metropolitan region. Resident population increased more than employment in the majority of fringe municipalities, reflecting population dispersion and residential suburbanization without employment growth. These evidences suggest that policies promoting a spatially-balanced regional development were substantially ineffective in Naples. Partial failure of a polycentric development strategy is common to other socioeconomic contexts experiencing similar urbanization processes. Reconnecting regional economic dynamics with local patterns of urban growth allows an in-depth understanding of present and future trends in Mediterranean urbanization

Cities as selective land predators? A lesson on urban growth, deregulated planning and sprawl containment

The present study investigates changes in the use of land caused by the expansion of an informal city in the Mediterranean region (Athens, Greece) and it proposes a simplified methodology to assess selective land take at the scale of municipalities. The amount of land take over twenty years (1987-2007) for cropland, sparsely vegetated areas and natural land was compared with the surface area of the respective class at the beginning of the study period (1987). Indicators of selective land take by class were correlated with socioeconomic indicators at the scale of municipalities to verify the influence of the local context and the impact of urban planning on land take processes. Evidence indicates that urban expansion into fringe land consumes primarily cropland and sparse vegetation in the case of the Athens' metropolitan region. Cropland and sparse vegetation were consumed proportionally more than the respective availability in 16 municipalities out of 60. Agricultural land take was positively correlated with population density and growth rate, rate of participation to the job market and road density. Sparse vegetation land take was observed in municipalities with predominance of high density settlements. As a result of second-home expansion in coastal municipalities, natural land was converted to urban use in proportion to the availability in the landscape. Urban planning seems to have a limited impact on selective land tak

Industrial Development, Urban Growth and Land Quality: multiple socio-environmental issues and Planning for Sustainable Development

The present study proposes an original framework to analyze population, economic and environmental data together with land-use trends and planning measures. This approach may suggest sustainable land management strategies addressing fragile industrial areas developed at the fringe of large citie

A comprehensive insight into the geography of forest cover in Italy: Exploring the importance of socioeconomic local contexts

Forest cover is a key attribute of local communities and affects the spatial organization of any given region. Changes in forest cover are influenced by spatially-varying biophysical and anthropogenic factors mainly associated with urban-rural, coastal-inland and elevation gradients. The present study investigates the relationship between the socioeconomic structure of local communities and selected indicators of forest landscape in Italy, including change in forest area over time (2000 − 2012), using an exploratory multivariate analysis based on principal component analysis, hierarchical clustering and discriminant analysis. We assess the importance of socio-spatial structures, economic dynamics and demographic patterns in the geography of forest cover, expansion and loss, considering 149 statistical indicators that are used to evaluate the multiple dimensions of sustainable development. The results point to agriculture, income, education and labour market indicators as a key predictors of contexts with high forest cover and moderate changes in forest area (both gain and loss) from those with low forest cover and marked changes in forest area. High forest cover in rural districts was spatially associated with local communities featuring depopulation, unemployment, low educational levels and subsistence agriculture. These factors consolidate land abandonment and soil erosion. The highest rate of change in forest area was observed in economically-growing, accessible local contexts with dynamic socio-demographic profiles. Integrated environmental and socioeconomic policies for sustainable development are required to incorporate forest cover and changes in wooded area as pivotal variables and may benefit from a better understanding of the role of local communities in forest management

Emerging urban centrality: An entropy-based indicator of polycentric development and economic growth

This study moves in the debate on polycentric development in Europe proposing an entropy-based indicator of urban centrality based on local-scale diversity in soil sealing levels. This indicator reflects a progressive transition from a mono-centric and hyper-compact morphology towards polycentric agglomerations, with formation (or consolidation) of sub-centres structurally and functionally distinct from central cities. The proposed approach was tested in three metropolitan regions (Barcelona, Rome and Athens) with the aim to provide a comparative analysis of recent urbanization patterns in European countries affected by rapid processes of urban spillover. The local socioeconomic structure underlying urban expansion was investigated using descriptive, correlation and multivariate analysis of 52 contextual indicators. Results of this study shed light on long-term urbanization patterns in the examined cities, providing evidence of a progressive settlement scattering in Rome and Athens. Early signals of polycentrism were observed in Barcelona. Diversification in the level of soil sealing decreased with the distance from central cities. The article finally debates on the use of composite indexes of diversification in the level of soil sealing when assessing polycentric urban development