Linking Models of Land Use, Resources, and Economy to Simulate the Development of Mountain Regions (ALPSCAPE)

We present a framework of a scenario-based model that simulates the development of the municipality of Davos (Swiss Alps). We illustrate our method with the calculation of the scenario for 2050 "Decrease in subsidies for mountain agriculture and liberalization of markets.” The main objective was to link submodels of land-use allocation (regression-based approach), material and energy flows submodels (Material and Energy Flux Analysis), and economic submodels (Input-Output Analysis). Letting qualitative and quantitative information flow from one submodel to the next, following the storyline describing a scenario, has proven to be suitable for linking submodels. The succession of the submodels is then strongly dependent on the scenario. Qualitative information flows are simulated with microsimulations of actor choices. Links between the submodels show different degrees of robustness: although the links involving microsimulations are the weakest, the uncertainty introduced by the land-use allocation model is actually advantageous because it allows one possible change in the landscape in the future to be simulated. The modeling results for the scenario here presented show that the disappearance of agriculture only marginally affects the region's factor income, but that the consequences for the self-sufficiency rate, for various landscape-related indicators and ecosystem services, and for the economy in the long term may be considerable. These benefits compensate for agriculture's modest direct economic value. The framework presented can potentially be applied to any region and scenario. This framework provides a basis for a learning package that allows potential detrimental consequences of regional development to be anticipated at an early stag

Mapping human- and bear-centered perspectives on coexistence using a participatory Bayesian framework

Coexistence with wildlife is becoming a key challenge in Europe as populations of large carnivores recover in human-dominated landscapes. Modeling the spatial distribution of conditions for human-bear coexistence can help support conservation by identifying priority areas and measures to support coexistence, but existing models often only address risks either to humans or to large carnivores. In this study, we developed a participatory modeling process that incorporates both human-centered and large carnivore-centered perspectives on coexistence and applied it to a case study of coexistence between humans and the endangered Apennine brown bears (Ursus arctos marsicanus) in Italy. Local and expert knowledge, as well as available data on bear habitats and land use, were integrated into a spatially explicit Bayesian network. This model is used to predict and map the tolerance to bears from the human perspective and the risk of fitness loss from the bear perspective. We found that conditions for human-bear coexistence vary between human communities and are spatially heterogeneous at the local scale, depending on ecological factors, social factors influencing the level of tolerance in community, such as people’s emotions and knowledge, economic factors, such as livelihoods, and policies such as damage compensation. The participatory modeling approach allowed us to integrate perceptions of local people, expert assessments, and spatial data, and can help bridge the gap between science and conservation practice. The resulting coexistence maps can inform conservation decisions, and can be updated as new information becomes available. Our modeling approach could help to efficiently target measures for improving human-large carnivore coexistence in different settings in a site-specific manner

Ecosystem services for connecting actors - lessons from a symposium

This paper is a communication from the corresponding symposium at the Global Land Project Open Science Meeting, Berlin, March 2014. We explored the assumption that the ecosystem services-(ES) concept has the potential to support communication and collaboration between actors in land use planning. If true, the concept could facilitate collaborative planning processes. We analyse how to evolve a planning context in which governance networks at the local landscape level gain importance in decision making, while the central government delegates power. From case studies presented during the symposium we learned that the ES-concept has been explored for application in local land use planning around the world. However, whether ES are recognized as a useful planning concept depends on individual actor preferences and cultural and contextual factors, such as the actual nature-human relationship and gender differences. Also, successful application requires the support of novel assessment, design and visualization tools, which are designed to foster collaboration and social learning. The potential of the concept to contribute to collaborative relationships needs further investigation

Linking model design and application for transdisciplinary approaches in social-ecological systems

This work was supported by the US National Science Foundation through the Mountain Sentinels Research Coordination Network (NSF #1414106), the Swiss National Science Foundation through MtnPaths – Pathways for global change adaptation of mountain socio-ecological systems (#20521L_169916), and the Center for Collaborative Conservation at Colorado State University.As global environmental change continues to accelerate and intensify, science and society are turning to trans- disciplinary approaches to facilitate transitions to sustainability. Modeling is increasingly used as a technological tool to improve our understanding of social-ecological systems (SES), encourage collaboration and learning, and facilitate decision-making. This study improves our understanding of how SES models are designed and applied to address the rising challenges of global environmental change, using mountains as a representative system. We analyzed 74 peer-reviewed papers describing dynamic models of mountain SES, evaluating them according to characteristics such as the model purpose, data and model type, level of stakeholder involvement, and spatial extent/resolution. Slightly more than half the models in our analysis were participatory, yet only 21.6% of papers demonstrated any direct outreach to decision makers. We found that SES models tend to under-represent social datasets, with ethnographic data rarely incorporated. Modeling efforts in conditions of higher stakeholder diversity tend to have higher rates of decision support compared to situations where stakeholder diversity is absent or not addressed. We discuss our results through the lens of appropriate technology, drawing on the concepts of boundary objects and scalar devices from Science and Technology Studies. We propose four guiding principles to facilitate the development of SES models as appropriate technology for transdisciplinary applications: (1) increase diversity of stakeholders in SES model design and application for improved collaboration; (2) balance power dynamics among stakeholders by incorporating diverse knowledge and data types; (3) promote flexibility in model design; and (4) bridge gaps in decision support, learning, and communication. Creating SES models that are appropriate tech- nology for transdisciplinary applications will require advanced planning, increased funding for and attention to the role of diverse data and knowledge, and stronger partnerships across disciplinary divides. Highly contextualized participatory modeling that embraces diversity in both data and actors appears poised to make strong contributions to the world’s most pressing environmental challenges.PostprintPeer reviewe

Making connections for our changing mountains: future directions for the mountain research initiative (MRI)

The Mountain Research Initiative (MRI) promotes basic and applied research to understand how drivers and processes of global change present challenges and opportunities in mountain social-ecological systems. It convenes a global network that collectively generates and synthesizes knowledge on global change in mountains that also supports decisions and actions to enable sustainable development. Building on the considerable social and intellectual wealth fostered by the MRI over its past 20-plus years of existence, we outline future directions aimed at supporting and further developing the network as well as our flagship and community-led activities aimed at linking and scaling interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research efforts within and across mountain regions worldwide

Predicting the scenic beauty value of mapped landscape changes in a mountainous region through the use of GIS

C1 - Journal Articles Referee