Assessing Egyptian Public Support for Security Crackdowns in the Sinai

View the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines the terrorist groups in Egypt emanating from the Sinai and assesses the level of Egyptian public support for the government\u27s security crackdown. These terrorist groups have not only targeted Egyptian security personnel and foreign tourists in the Sinai Peninsula but have attacked government installations and personnel in the Egyptian mainland. Because most Egyptians desire stability, want terrorism to end, and want their moribund economy to grow, and because they have few family ties to the Bedouin inhabitants of the Sinai, they have given the government wide berth to carry out a heavy-handed crackdown there. However, some of Egypt\u27s draconian security policies (such as punishing whole Bedouin villages) can be counterproductive, often making more terrorist recruits out of disaffected Bedouin youth than would otherwise be the case. The monograph recommends enhanced U.S. counterterrorism assistance to the Egyptian military, with specialized courses for Egyptian military officers attending professional military education institutions in the United States and the training of whole Egyptian counterterrorism units either in the United States or in a friendly Arab country. The monograph also recommends the resumption of a U.S.-Egyptian strategic dialogue, to include U.S. Army officers and their Egyptian counterparts, where effective counterterrorism policies can be discussed frankly in a closed-door setting. In addition, the monograph advocates for new and enhanced social and economic policies in the Sinai that would aim to dissuade Beduion youth from assisting and joining the terrorist groups. These policies would involve recruiting properly vetted Bedouin youth into the local police forces, and a major jobs training program, with U.S. financial and administrative support, for these youth to prepare them for eventual employment in tourism and other legitimate economic sectors.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1464/thumbnail.jp

Can Egypt Lead the Arab World Again? Assessing Opportunities and Challenges for U.S. Policy

This monograph examines the possibility of Egypt leading the Arab world again, and how that effort, if successful, will present opportunities and challenges for U.S. policy. At the present time, Egypt is not in a position to do so given its many domestic problems stemming from its turbulent politics since 2011 and the challenges facing its economy, which is currently experiencing high unemployment, weak tourism revenues because of terrorist incidents, and high rates of inflation as it implements an International Monetary Fund (IMF) economic reform package. However, Egypt has faced similar problems in the past and has recovered from them, enabling it to pursue an Arab leadership role. Hence, the United States should be prepared to deal with Egypt’s longstanding leadership quest, which this monograph argues will generally be a positive development for the United States in the region, though there will be some issues where the United States and Egypt will not see eye-to-eye. Given the intense Sunni-Shia conflicts in the region that are fed in large part by the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, having Egypt (a moderate Sunni Muslim country not pushing a religious agenda) in a leadership role in the region will help to dampen this sectarian strife. Moreover, because of its large and competent military, Egypt can be a source of stability and reassurance when other Arab states, particularly the Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, are feeling vulnerable because of outside threats. Furthermore, Egypt can play a moderating influence in the region by being a bulwark against the radical extremist ideologies of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), al-Qaeda, and like-minded groups. The United States can help Egypt succeed by continuing military assistance, offering counterterrorism training of whole units, and resuming military exercises like Bright Star. This monograph also argues for a boost in U.S. economic assistance to past levels—given Egypt’s strategic importance—to help it cope with economic reform measures even under U.S. budgetary woes. Although the United States and Egypt will continue to differ on the nature of Egypt’s domestic politics, particularly with regard to human rights and dissent and recognizing that the United States has limited influence in this regard, Washington should use whatever leverage it has to persuade the Egyptian Government to be less repressive, because an easing of authoritarian policies and practices will help Egyptian stability in the long run.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1414/thumbnail.jp

Maneuvering the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry in the Middle East: How the United States Can Preserve and Protect Its Long-Term Interests in the Region

This monograph examines the conflicts in the Middle East region between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the so-called proxy wars that are being fought between them, and discusses ways that the United States needs to maneuver carefully in this struggle to preserve its long-term interests in the area. Although Washington has political, economic, and strategic equities with Riyadh, it needs to think carefully about being perceived as engaging in sectarian strife that would alienate Shia allies in Iraq, show bias in its human rights policy, and anger millions of Iranian young people who want better relations with the United States.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1386/thumbnail.jp

Egypt\u27s New Regime and the Future of the U.S.-Egyptian Strategic Relationship

View the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines the strategic importance of Egypt for the United States by exploring Egypt\u27s role in the Arab-Israeli peace process, its geographical role (providing air and naval access) for U.S. military assets heading to the Persian Gulf, and joint training programs. With so much at stake in the Middle East, the idea of losing Egypt as a strategic ally would be a significant setback for the United States. The Egyptian revolution of early 2011 was welcomed by U.S. officials because the protestors wanted democratic government which conformed to U.S. ideals, and the institution that would shepherd the transition, the Egyptian military, had close ties with the United States. To bolster the U.S.-Egyptian relationship and help keep Egypt on the democratic path, the monograph recommends that U.S. military aid should not be cut, economic aid should be increased, and U.S. administration officials should not oppose congressional conditions tying aid to democratic norms because it signals U.S. support for democracy. The United States should continue to speak out for free and fair elections and other international norms, but should avoid commentating on the role of religion and Islamic law in the Egyptian Constitution. Helping the Egyptian military deal with the extremist threat in the Sinai, which the United States has already offered, should also be continued. The U.S. Army should continue to advocate for military-to-military contacts, encourage their Egyptian counterparts to continue to attend U.S. professional military educational institutions, engage with Egyptian counterparts on regional threat assessments, and advocate for a reactivation of the Bright Star exercises. What U.S. Army officials and officers should do is avoid getting into discussions with Egyptian military officers about Egyptian domestic politics, and drop any interest they may have in convincing Egypt to opt for a “more nimble” force because Egyptian defense officials would see it as an effort to weaken the Egyptian military.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1529/thumbnail.jp

Presidential Succession Scenarios in Egypt and Their Impact on U.S.-Egyptian Strategic Relations

Although this monograph was written before the pro-democracy demonstrations in Egypt in January 2011, it examines the important question as to who might succeed President Hosni Mubarak by analyzing several possible scenarios and what they would mean for U.S. strategic relations with Egypt. The monograph first describes the importance of Egypt in the Middle East region and gives an overview of the U.S.-Egyptian strategic relationship. It then examines the power structure in Egypt to include the presidency, the military, and the ruling party. The monograph next explores various succession scenarios. Although some of the scenarios outlined in this monograph are no longer viable--for example, President Mubarak is now on trial for complicity in the deaths of protestors during the uprising that resulted in his ouster from power--other scenarios remain plausible, particularly given what we see as the more prominent role of the Egyptian military in this fluid political situation. In addition, some of the possible presidential successors that the author mentions have now risen to higher positions in the Egyptian government. The author also discusses the sensitive issue of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt\u27s most organized opposition group that is opposed to many U.S. policies. He examines a scenario of a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government, but notes that this is unlikely to occur unless both the Brotherhood and the Egyptian military split apart.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1566/thumbnail.jp

The New Arab Regional Order: Opportunities and Challenges for U.S. Policy

This monograph examines the new Arab regional order that has emerged over the past few years and analyzes opportunities and challenges for U.S. strategic interests. The regional order encompasses: 1) an anti-Islamist grouping of countries that came about largely in reaction to Muslim Brotherhood rule in Egypt in 2012-2013; and, 2) an anti-Shia grouping which solidified in the aftermath of the Houthi takeover over much of Yemen, but which includes other areas of Sunni-Shia conflict in the region. Saudi Arabia is a leader in both orders and has important allies in them, like Egypt. Although the United States has extensive ties to a number of the countries in these alliances, and has assisted many of them in recent conflicts, it has tried to avoid getting involved in the larger Sunni-Shia conflict (having equities with both Sunni and Shia countries) and does not share the views of many secularists in the region that all Islamist groups pose a threat to regional stability. The monograph argues that U.S. policymakers should continue to promote inclusivity of all nonviolent political groups in the political systems of these countries, regardless of whether these groups are secularist or Islamist, with the understanding that there are limits to U.S. influence. In addition, U.S. policymakers should continue to avoid taking sides as much as possible in Sunni-Shia conflicts and should use its influence in the area to try to dampen such conflicts, as they are a main source of instability in the region and help extremist groups, like ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) and al-Qaeda, exploit these conflicts. The monograph also recommends that the U.S. Army should assist countries of the region in counter-terrorism training and operations where possible, but Army officers should avoid being drawn into discussions about the Islamist-secularist and Sunni-Shia disputes.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1432/thumbnail.jp

Maneuvering the Islamist-Secularist Divide in the Arab World: How the United States Can Preserve its Interests and Values in an Increasingly Polarized Environment

View the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines the Islamist-secularist divide in Arab countries, particularly in Egypt and Tunisia, and why it has become so intense and polarizing. It demonstrates that having Islamist parties in power or in domineering positions in Arab societies often provokes a backlash from secular elements because the latter see the Islamists as threatening their social freedoms. For countries beginning the transitory process from authoritarianism to democracy, the monograph recommends that the United States press for a broad governing coalition and a delay in holding elections, which would allow secular-liberal forces the opportunity to build their political parties and compete with Islamist parties. For Arab countries already facing polarization, the United States should be consistent on human rights, help to build up institutions (such as parliaments) as a hedge against authoritarian presidents, and press for inclusionary politics. In addition, the monograph recommends that U.S. Army officers should reinforce to their Arab military counterparts the value and necessity of concentrating on genuine external and internal terrorist threats as opposed to being used as a coercive internal force that favors exclusionary politics.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1480/thumbnail.jp

A Security Role for the United States in a Post-ISIS Syria?

Syria has become one of the most vexing and complex problems for U.S. strategic planners in recent times. Currently, the United States has about 2,000 troops in the northeastern part of the country whose primary mission has been to aid the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), made up primarily of Kurds and some Arab tribesmen, to fight ISIS. The near total defeat of ISIS in Syria, especially with the fall of its so-called caliphate capital in Raqqa in October 2017, might seem to suggest that the military mission is coming to an end and, therefore, the United States should pull out its troops. Indeed, President Donald Trump stated publicly in late March 2018, that he wanted these troops to come home “very soon.” However, since that time, the U.S. President has backtracked from this statement after receiving advice from several of his top military advisers, including Defense Secretary James Mattis, some foreign leaders like French President Emanuel Macron and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and influential members of Congress, such as Senator Lindsey Graham, all of whom have recommended that the President keep these troops in Syria.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1394/thumbnail.jp

Stannate Nanomaterials for Sustainable Fire Safety: Processing, Characterization and Application

Statistically, accidental residential and vehicle fires cause ~3000 fatalities, and ~$10 billion in damages per year in the United States. To reduce the hazard, many flammable products are protected with bromated flame-retardants. However, studies have proven their use to pose major environmental and health hazards. A recent EPA mandate calls to phase out common formulations by 2014. To fill the void, incorporation of replacements is critical, however few offer such efficient and versatile protection. This dissertation intends to provide solutions through research and development of non-toxic zinc and calcium hydroxystannate (ZHS, CHS) nanoparticle based flame retardants for common textiles. Using low-temperature solution synthesis methods, single crystalline ZHS micro- and nanocubes have been successfully grown on pure tin substrates. Cube morphology was controlled by altering reaction time and chemical reagents. Their thermal decomposition process was investigated using differential scanning calorimetry, thermal gravitational analysis and electron microscopy. An endothermic peak near ~540K is attributed decomposition of ZHS into ZnSnO3. Furthermore, successful incorporation of hydroxystannate nanomaterial surface-coatings onto cotton, nylon and polyester textile fibers is achieved using a novel sustainable solution chemistry method. Alteration of the driving force/kinetics of nucleation and growth in these systems through control of precursor concentration, reaction time and temperature is used to tailor the coating particle morphology and mass loading. Associated fire-retardancy properties have been assessed and characterized by using standardized NFPA 705, ASTM D6413, and cone calorimetry tests. Hydroxystannate-coated nylon and polyester textiles demonstrate marginal, if any, performance increase, partially resulting from the scaffolding effect. However, hydroxystannate-coated cotton exhibits pronounced improvements in flame retardancy via physical mechanisms including morphology induced thermal and oxygen barrier properties, and thermally induced endothermic phase changes. As a result, the hydroxystannate nanomaterial systems display superior time-to-ignition and peak heat release rates (PHRRs) in comparison with the leading commercial flame retardant cotton. Furthermore, the strong correlation between burn-rates and PHRRs suggests that burn-rate analysis may provide a simplified method of estimating these values when compared to expensive cone calorimetry. This research advances the understanding of hydroxystannate flame retardant surface coatings

Synthesis, Field Emission and Associated Degradation Mechanisms of Tapered ZnO Nanorods

Equation 1..... 4 Equation 2..... 4 Equation 3..... 6 Equation 4..... 7 Equation 5..... 9 Equation 6..... 10 Equation 7..... 11 Equation 8..... 12 Equation 9..... 14 Equation 10..... 40 Equation 11..... 51 Synthesis, Field Emission and Associated Degradation Mechanisms of Tapered ZnO Nanorods Gregory Michael Wrobel, M.S. University of Connecticut, 2011 Modern development of field emitter arrays (FEA) has been made possible, partly thanks to the synthesis and development of one-dimensional (1D) nanostructures. High aspect ratio 1D nanostructures effectively amplify the electric field at the emitter tips, allowing electrons to be extracted at relatively low electric field. An inexpensive and rationally-controlled method to synthesize FEAs may permit commercial development of the field emission display (FED) technology, which can potentially outperform modern liquid crystal display (LCD) technology. In this thesis work, we have developed a low-cost approach to produce large-scale ZnO nanorod FEAs, and systematically studied correlated degradation mechanisms including, exposure to gas species at high-voltage, and high-current emission. Nanorods of ZnO were grown directly from iron and copper substrates by solution processing, without surface pre-treatment such as seed or catalyst layer. Field emission measurements show high current density and low turn-on voltage. Annealing under vacuum effectively lowers turn-on voltage and enhances the maximum current density up to two orders of magnitude, as compared to initial field emission characteristics. Two typical field emitter degradation mechanisms, including exposure to atmospheric gas species (O2, N2, and H2) during field emission and high current induced degradation of the emitter tips, have been studied experimentally and theoretically. Experimental results suggest the presence of each gas species suppress the field emission current, which is supported by density functional theory (DFT) calculations. A tip-degradation phenomenon of ZnO nanorod FEAs has been observed during high-current field emission, which is most likely induced by a resistive joule heating process, which could result in a steady state temperature at the nanorod tip above the melting point of ZnO as suggested by calculation. This thesis work provides insight to better help understand how these tapered ZnO nanorods perform as field emitters and determine if they’re suitable for use as a commercial field emission source