Commentary on Parsing shocks: real-time revisions to gap and growth projections for Canada

Economic development ; Economic conditions - Canada

The Missing Links: Better Measures of Inflation and Inflation Expectations in Canada

The Bank of Canada’s inflation-targeting regime currently relies on imperfect measures of inflation and inflation expectations. The overall performance of monetary policy would be improved if new measures of inflation and inflation expectations were incorporated into the Bank of Canada’s inflation-targeting regime, when it comes up for review in 2011.monetary policy, Bank of Canada, inflation targets

Exchange-Rate Discounting

Economists often describe nominal exchange rates as forward-looking, so that they reflect discounted, expected, future fundamentals. This study applies a method for identifying the discount rate involved, without knowing or measuring fundamentals. Identification arises from assumptions on the stochastic process followed by fundamentals, combined with nonlinearity arising from expected future regime changes. Two applications yield evidence against the present-value model in the form of discount rates which are negative and statistically significant.floating exchange rates, regime switching

US Inflation Dynamics 1981-2007: 13,193 Quarterly Observations

The new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) restricts multivariate forecasts. I estimate and test it entirely within a panel of professional forecasts, thus using the time-series, cross-forecaster, and cross-horizon dimensions of the panel. Estimation uses 13,193 observations on quarterly US inflation forecasts since 1981. The main finding is a significantly larger weight on expected future inflation than on past inflation, a finding which also is estimated with much more precision than in the standard approach. Inflation dynamics also are stable over time, with no decline in inflation inertia from the 1980s to the 2000s. But, as in historical data, identifying the output gap is difficult.forecast survey, new Keynesian Phillips curve

Greenback-Gold Returns and Expectations of Resumption, 1862-1879

We propose a unified framework for studying the greenback-gold price during the U.S. suspension of convertibility from 1862 to 1879. The gold price is viewed as a floating exchange rate, with a fixed destination given by gold standard parity because of the prospect of resumption. We test this perspective using daily data for the entire period, and measure the effect of news during and after the Civil War. New evidence of a decline in the volatility of gold returns after the Resumption Act of 1875 provides statistical support for the importance of expectations of resumption.greenbacks, gold standard, regime switching

Business Cycle Theory and Econometrics

We outline in turn criticisms made by econometricians of the methods used in empirical business-cycle research and then criticisms made by business-cycle researchers of some methods used by econometricians. The aim is to clarify and in some cases correct these criticisms. Overall there is no conflict in using rigourous statistical procedures to study modern dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We also provide a concise bibliography of recent research on statistical methods for business-cycle models.business cycles, time-series econometrics